Try the model
TROY

Troy 50 at North Texas 30

UNT
2017 · R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl · Dec 16, 2017 · Caesars Superdome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:04 · Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 22 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Home team on offense−6.6Pregame prior−11.6Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:49: Colton McDonald 56 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UNT win probability +6.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:49: Michael Lawrence 13 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick) — UNT win probability +10.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 13:33: Brandon Silvers 2 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick) — TROY win probability +9.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:28: Tevaris McCormick 59 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Tyler Sumpter Kick) — TROY win probability +11.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:02: John Johnson 20 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Tyler Sumpter Kick) — TROY win probability +8.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 7:42UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:02TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:12UNT 4th & 2 at TROY 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−1.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:00UNT 4th & 13 at TROY 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:23TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 12, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:04UNT 4th & 5 at TROY 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 49, up 2
    Close callPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:32UNT 4th & 11 at TROY 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:00UNT 4th & 4 at TROY 41, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−1.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:26UNT 4th & 4 at TROY 7, down 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−7.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:40TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 29, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:51UNT 4th & 4 at TROY 13, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    -1.7%−6.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:30TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:07UNT 4th & 20 at UNT 12, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:37TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 40, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:05UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 31, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:05UNT 4th & 13 at UNT 37, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:55TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:21TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:55UNT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:24TROY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:49UNT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:49UNT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:33TROY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:28TROY Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:02TROY Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:07TROY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:28UNT Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:4571% → 71%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
29.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 9 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
29.3%
Josh Anderson run for 8 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-1
29.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-5
29.6%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Tevaris McCormick) to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+20
30.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 20 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
29.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+27
30.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 27 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
30.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 10 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.1%
Josh Anderson 1 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:4730% → 30%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.6%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Hunter Reese) to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-3
29.8%
Andrew Tucker run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
29.8%
Mason Fine sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 14 Mason Fine fumbled, forced by Jamal Stadom, recovered by Troy Sam Lebbie , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3871% → 72%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
29.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+8
29.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 8 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.9%
Josh Anderson 2 Yd Run (Brandon Silvers Pass to John Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2228% → 28%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
28.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 7 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
28.1%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-5
28.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Jordan Murray) to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
27.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 8
OWN 33
-2
27.7%
Blake Patterson punt for 43 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:3373% → 73%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
27.1%
Tevaris McCormick run for 5 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+9
27.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 9 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
26.8%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
26.7%
Josh Anderson run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-8
26.5%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Joshua Wheeler for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
26.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5527% → 31%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.2%
Andrew Tucker run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
27.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
27.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 9 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
27.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Caleb ChumleySimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
26.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Andrew Tucker for 11 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
27.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
26.4%
Andrew Tucker run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
26.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (T.J. Henson) to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+33
26.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 33 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
26.7%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
26.6%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
30.9%
Rico Bussey Jr. 12 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:1570% → 77%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+55
30.0%
Josh Anderson run for 55 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
28.5%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
28.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+13
28.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 13 yds to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.5%
Damion Willis 7 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Tyler Sumpter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:5625% → 26%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
25.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 8 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-2
25.2%
Evan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+10
24.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 10 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
25.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
25.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Quinetin Jackson for 6 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
25.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
25.8%
Evan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
26.1%
Evan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
25.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
25.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
12 plays · 25 yds · 4:1277% → 73%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
22.9%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
22.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 3 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
22.3%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
21.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
21.9%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+15
22.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
21.6%
Josh Anderson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+2
21.2%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
21.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 1 yd to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+9
20.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 9 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
20.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-56
26.9%
Colton McDonald 56 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
28.8%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Kishawn McClain return for no gain to the NoTex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2830% → 28%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
30.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
29.7%
Nic Smith run for 11 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
30.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-3
30.6%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
29.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
28.3%
Blake Patterson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2971% → 71%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
28.9%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
29.1%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 8
OWN 14
-2
29.4%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+5
28.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 34 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 5 yds to the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:2229% → 41%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
29.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
29.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+3
28.7%
Andrew Tucker run for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+22
27.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 22 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
31.9%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
41.0%
Michael Lawrence 13 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:3862% → 63%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
37.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 9 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
36.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 3 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
37.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ashton Preston) to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
35.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
34.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
35.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
36.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 39 yds, downed at the NoTex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2039% → 38%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.0%
Andrew Tucker run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
38.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
37.7%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Hunter Reese return for 1 yd to the NoTex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:2767% → 76%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
33.2%
Jamarius Henderson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+24
33.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 24 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
24.1%
Brandon Silvers 2 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3730% → 27%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
29.9%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
28.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
28.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
26.7%
Blake Patterson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 1:5373% → 87%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
26.7%
Jamarius Henderson run for 16 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
26.1%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+10
25.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 10 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
24.6%
Josh Anderson run for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+59
13.3%
Tevaris McCormick 59 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Tyler Sumpter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:4217% → 20%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
16.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 9 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+10
17.5%
Evan Johnson run for 10 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
17.7%
Mason Fine sacked by Hunter Reese for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 18
OWN 45
0
16.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+14
15.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 14 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+6
16.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 6 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
17.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
17.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 11 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
17.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 11 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
17.3%
Nic Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+1
17.1%
Evan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-1
16.2%
Mason Fine sacked by Sam Lebbie for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 7 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Jordan Murray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
19.5%
Trevor Moore 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3186% → 86%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
14.3%
Jamarius Henderson run for 8 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
13.1%
Jamarius Henderson run for no gain to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
13.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
13.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds, downed at the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · -20 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-20
18.0%
Mason Fine sacked by Tyler Murray for a loss of 20 yards to the NoTex 13 Mason Fine fumbled, forced by Tyler Murray, recovered by TroySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:2289% → 97%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
11.3%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
11.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Colton McDonald) to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
11.3%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Damion Willis) to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
3.1%
John Johnson 20 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Tyler Sumpter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 1:585% → 5%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
5.0%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Terence Dunlap) to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
5.2%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
5.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 11 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
5.5%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+14
5.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 14 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
5.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 6 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
5.3%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
4.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+20
4.7%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Adarius Wesley return for 20 yds to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1297% → 97%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
3.2%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
3.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
3.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
2.9%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
2.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+1
2.9%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
2.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 43 yds, downed at the NoTex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:143% → 2%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
2.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 2 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
2.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-12
2.5%
Mason Fine sacked by Kelvin Lucky for a loss of 12 yards to the NoTex 12Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 20
OWN 12
+1
2.4%
Blake Patterson punt for 48 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 1 yd to the Troy 13 TROY Penalty, Illegal Block (Jawon McDowell) to the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0398% → 98%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
2.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 3 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
2.0%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
1.8%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
1.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 32 yds, downed at the NoTex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:172% → 1%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
2.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Andrew Tucker for no gain to the NoTex 28Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
1.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+3
1.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Andrew Tucker for 3 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+16
1.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 16 yds Michael Lawrence fumbled, forced by Adarius Wesley, recovered by Troy Tron FolsomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:5399% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
1.3%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-1
1.0%
Jamarius Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+37
0.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 37 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.1%
Damion Willis 10 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Tyler Sumpter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29TD
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:240% → 1%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
0.2%
Evan Johnson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-15
0.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 16
OWN 34
-8
0.2%
Mason Fine sacked by Baron Poole for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 26Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 24
OWN 26
+11
0.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 11 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+14
0.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Andrew Tucker for 14 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
0.1%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
0.2%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jamal Stadom) to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 5
OPP 34
-10
0.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Murray) to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+15
0.1%
TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (Zo Bridges) to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
0.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+14
0.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 14 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jason PirtleSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
1.1%
Turner Smiley 17 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:28
Tevaris McCormick 59 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Tyler Sumpter Kick)
-11.3
TD · Q2 0:49
Michael Lawrence 13 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)
+10.2
TD · Q3 13:33
Brandon Silvers 2 Yd Run (Tyler Sumpter Kick)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com