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WYO

Wyoming 17 at San José State 20

SJSU
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreWYO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-15.1SJSU 81.5%Nick Smith pass complete to C.J.Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (CooperRothe KICK)AWAY 17 - HOME 20 · Q4 1:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:07 · Nick Smith pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 199Pregame prior−0.9Home team on offense+11.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Garbage-time factor+3.2Score differential+0.7Blowout margin+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:28: Nick Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +7.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:47: Bryce Crawford 52 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:25: DeJon Packer run for 6 yds to the Wyom 44 — SJSU win probability +17.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:09: DeJon Packer run for 44 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:07: Nick Smith pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +15.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12WYO made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:14WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:45WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:33WYO 4th & 12 at SJSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:45SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:36WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:56WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:39SJSU 4th & 4 at WYO 27, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:36WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:17SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:47SJSU 4th & 10 at WYO 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:24WYO 4th & 6 at SJSU 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−10.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:18SJSU 4th & 18 at SJSU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−4.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:39WYO 4th & 8 at SJSU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:07SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−2.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:59WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:35SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 33, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−2.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00WYO 4th & 15 at SJSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−2.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:46SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−4.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:53WYO 4th & 6 at SJSU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−4.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:18SJSU 4th & 9 at WYO 38, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−1.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 7:18WYO 4th & 21 at WYO 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−5.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  24. Q4 5:58SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−5.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:29WYO 4th & 6 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.9%−5.0
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:42WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:45SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:28WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:09SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:07WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
11.0%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
11.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
11.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
11.0%
Montel Aaron pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
11.0%
Montel Aaron pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
11.0%
Montel Aaron pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
11.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
11.7%
Trey Woods run for 1 yd to the Wyom 10Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+8
11.7%
Trey Woods run for 8 yds to the Wyom 18Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
11.7%
Trey Woods run for 3 yds to the Wyom 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
11.7%
Nick Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
11.7%
Austin Conway run for 4 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
11.7%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Fort for 5 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
11.7%
Tim Zaleski punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
12.9%
Zamore Zigler run for 13 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
13.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 6 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
13.2%
Montel Aaron run for 1 yd to the Wyom 44 Montel Aaron fumbled, forced by Taniela Lolohea, recovered by Wyom Taniela LoloheaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
13.1%
Kellen Overstreet run for 2 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
13.0%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Jermaine KellySimilar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+33
13.2%
Nick Smith pass intercepted Dakari Monroe return for 33 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:1014% → 16%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
14.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 17 yds to the Wyom 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
14.1%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the Wyom 5Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.1%
Montel Aaron run for 5 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.7%
Austin Fort run for 3 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
15.6%
Nick Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
15.8%
Nick Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
15.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 44 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 2 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7INT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
16.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
16.6%
Malike Roberson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
16.7%
Malike Roberson run for 7 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+12
16.8%
Malike Roberson run for 12 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
16.8%
Malike Roberson run for no gain to the Wyom 40Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
16.8%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 11 yds to the Wyom 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
16.8%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 31Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
16.8%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tyler NevensSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+57
16.5%
Montel Aaron pass intercepted Marcus Epps return for 57 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
16.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Wyom 44Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
16.8%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 15 yds to the Wyom 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
18.3%
WYOMING Penalty, false start (Rico Gafford) to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
18.6%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to Austin ConwaySimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+3
18.7%
Trey Woods run for 3 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
18.8%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Andre ChachereSimilar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
19.3%
Tim Zaleski punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
19.9%
Malike Roberson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+3
19.8%
Zamore Zigler run for 3 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
19.5%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Cassh MaluiaSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
19.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
20.5%
Austin Conway run for no gain to the Wyom 20Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
20.5%
Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
20.7%
Nick Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
21.0%
Tim Zaleski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1623% → 22%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
22.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
23.0%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 6 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
22.7%
Zamore Zigler run for 1 yd to the SJSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
22.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
22.9%
Trey Woods run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 19Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 13
OWN 19
-1
23.1%
Austin Fort pass complete to Austin Conway for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 18Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+12
23.5%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Fort for 12 yds to the Wyom 30Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
23.5%
Tim Zaleski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:2525% → 28%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+37
25.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 37 yds to the Wyom 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
26.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
26.6%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
26.1%
Malike Roberson run for no gain to the Wyom 27Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
28.1%
Bryce Crawford 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
27.2%
Trey Woods run for 3 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-1
26.9%
Trey Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 47Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
27.4%
Nick Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
28.4%
Tim Zaleski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
29.6%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre Hartley, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
29.4%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+9
28.8%
Montel Aaron run for 9 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
29.8%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
29.8%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-5
29.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+7
28.9%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 7 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+55
28.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 45 yds , Austin Conway returns for 55 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0470% → 75%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
30.0%
Kellen Overstreet run for 8 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+8
30.0%
Kellen Overstreet run for 8 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
30.0%
Kellen Overstreet run for no gain to the SJSt 7Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
30.0%
Nick Smith pass complete to Josh Harshman for 6 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.9%
Nick Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:3629% → 37%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
28.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-5
28.8%
Montel Aaron sacked by Garrett Crall for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+15
27.8%
AARON, Montel pass incomplete to GAITHER, Bailey (GAFFORD, Rico), PENALTY WY pass interference (GAFFORD, Rico) 15 yards to the SJ32, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
29.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Justin Holmes for 2 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+31
28.9%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 31 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
31.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-2
31.5%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 35Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
30.4%
Montel Aaron pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+52
37.2%
Bryce Crawford 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:0667% → 68%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
33.4%
Austin Conway run for no gain to the Wyom 43Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+35
36.6%
Nick Smith pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 35 yds to the SJSU 22 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
32.3%
Nick Smith pass intercepted Dakari Monroe return for 6 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
38.3%
DeJon Packer run for 13 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
38.6%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-2
38.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:3663% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.8%
Nick Smith pass complete to James Price for 10 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
36.1%
Trey Woods run for 7 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
34.3%
Trey Woods run for 4 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
34.4%
Austin Conway run for 1 yd to the Wyom 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
35.0%
Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+33
34.1%
Kellen Overstreet run for 33 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
32.3%
Trey Woods run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+2
32.8%
Trey Woods run for 2 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+5
34.1%
Nick Smith pass complete to Josh Harshman for 5 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
35.9%
Cooper Rothe 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0039% → 36%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
38.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 15
OWN 24
-10
37.9%
Montel Aaron sacked by Carl Granderson for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 14Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 25
OWN 14
+7
36.7%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Zamore Zigler for 7 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
36.1%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
36.5%
Trey Woods run for 2 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
36.3%
Trey Woods run for no gain to the Wyom 44Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+12
37.6%
Nick Smith run for 12 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
35.4%
Kellen Overstreet run for 2 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
35.4%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to James Price, broken up by Dakari MonroeSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
35.8%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
38.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
43.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
43.5%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+2
42.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Zamore Zigler for 2 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
41.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
41.6%
Kellen Overstreet run for 3 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-1
40.8%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Fort for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
42.9%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Maurice McKnightSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
44.8%
Tim Zaleski punt for 40 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for no gain to the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
46.5%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 9 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
48.5%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for no gain to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
46.8%
Montel Aaron run for no gain to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
44.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 56 yds , Austin Conway returns for no gain to the Wyom 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:0952% → 48%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
48.5%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for 9 yds to the Wyom 20Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+2
47.1%
Trey Woods run for 2 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+38
48.1%
Kellen Overstreet run for 38 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
43.0%
Trey Woods run for 8 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-10
41.1%
WOODS, Trey rush right for 2 yards to the SJ30 (GINDA, Frank;CHACHERE, Andre), PENALTY WY holding (RUSH, Gavin) 10 yards to the SJ42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-3
44.7%
Nick Smith sacked by Jamal Scott for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
50.0%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
51.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
50.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
50.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
49.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
48.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 57 yds , Austin Conway returns for 3 yds to the Wyom 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 28MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:0646% → 44%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
54.1%
Kellen Overstreet run for 8 yds to the Wyom 25Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
52.7%
Kellen Overstreet run for 3 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
53.5%
Kellen Overstreet run for 7 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
50.5%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to Jaylon WatsonSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+15
53.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Andre Chachere) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
50
+13
48.4%
Kellen Overstreet run for 13 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
48.4%
Kellen Overstreet run for 4 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
46.3%
Kellen Overstreet run for 3 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-3
48.3%
Kellen Overstreet run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+49
55.7%
Cooper Rothe 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29MISSED FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:3564% → 63%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
63.9%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+25
65.5%
Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 25 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
67.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the Wyom 38Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
67.8%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
67.4%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Andrew WingardSimilar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+55
63.3%
Bryce Crawford 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 30PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0045% → 39%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
54.7%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 32Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 16
OWN 32
0
58.2%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to James PriceSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 16
OWN 32
-5
60.2%
Nick Smith sacked by Owen Roberts for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 27Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 21
OWN 27
0
61.4%
Tim Zaleski punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0068% → 64%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
67.7%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
66.5%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
65.6%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to JaQuan Blackwell, broken up by Rico GaffordSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
63.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 32DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 1:5637% → 31%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.9%
Nick Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
63.6%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for 3 yds to the Wyom 23Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
64.9%
Nick Smith pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
60.9%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to Austin ConwaySimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
62.7%
SMITH, Nick pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J. (MONROE, Dakari), PENALTY SJ pass interference (MONROE, Dakari) 15 yards to the WY46, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.7%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
58.8%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for 8 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-4
55.3%
Nico Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 6
50
0
68.8%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to Austin Conway, broken up by Sailosi LatuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 33TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:1687% → 96%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
50
+6
86.6%
DeJon Packer run for 6 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+44
96.0%
DeJon Packer run for 44 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 34TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:024% → 19%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.2%
Nick Smith pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 10 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
95.9%
SMITH, Nick pass complete to EVANS, Nico for 5 yards to the WY40 (PARKER, Tysyn), PENALTY WY illegal formation 5 yards to the WY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+7
96.2%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for 7 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
95.8%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for 3 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
96.3%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for 4 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
96.6%
Nick Smith run for 3 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
81.5%
Nick Smith pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 35END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
93.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 46Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-2
93.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:25
DeJon Packer run for 6 yds to the Wyom 44
+17.8
TD · Q4 1:07
Nick Smith pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q4 2:09
DeJon Packer run for 44 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com