Try the model
USU

Utah State 35 at Air Force 38

AF
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:46 · Charlie Scott punt for 72 yds, downed at the UthSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−6.9Pregame prior+1.2Garbage-time factor−4.3Score differential−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:04: Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +15.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q4 12:54: Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 24 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +26.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:24: Santo Coppola Fumble Recovery in end zone (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +34.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:28: Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 22 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +37.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:38: Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +51.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 8:06AF 4th & 8 at USU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:47AF 4th & 4 at USU 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:46USU 4th & 10 at USU 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00USU 4th & 3 at AF 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:55USU 4th & 17 at USU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:01AF 4th & 7 at AF 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:56AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:04USU 4th & 6 at AF 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:08USU 4th & 2 at AF 47, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:24USU 4th & 6 at USU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:44AF 4th & 2 at USU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−2.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 1 at USU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−5.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−18.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:46AF 4th & 9 at AF 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:38USU 4th & 10 at AF 42, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%
    30% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:09USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:47USU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:22AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:56USU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:04AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:32AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:54USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:24AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:28USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:38AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:5144% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
55.9%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+15
55.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 15 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
55.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+2
55.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+71
55.4%
Aaren Vaughns run for 71 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 5:0355% → 56%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
55.4%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
55.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
55.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 9 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
55.6%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
55.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 7 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+16
55.6%
Taven Birdow run for 16 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
55.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
55.7%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
55.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 15
OPP 22
-5
55.7%
MCVEY, Tim rush for 9 yards to the USU13 (SCHUSTER, G.), PENALTY AF illegal shift 5 yards to the USU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 20
OWN 0
0
55.4%
SANDERS, Isaiah rush for 12 yards to the USU15 (LEAVITT, Dallin), PENALTY AF holding off-setting, PENALTY USU offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 20
OPP 27
0
55.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 20
OPP 27
+8
55.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+4
55.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
55.6%
Luke Strebel 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
52.4%
Gerold Bright run for 75 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Suli Tamaivena) to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
53.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
53.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
53.0%
MCVEY, Tim rush for loss of 5 yards to the AF26 (TAMAIVENA, Suli;ADEOYE, Adewale), PENALTY USU personal foul 15 yards to the AF46, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
53.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
53.6%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
53.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+1
53.6%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Nolan Eriksen for 1 yd to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
51.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the UthSt 9Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
51.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete UTAH ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
51.5%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
51.7%
Aaron Dalton punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:4753% → 56%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
52.6%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
52.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
52.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+7
53.0%
Jacob Stafford run for 7 yds to the UthSt 18 Jacob Stafford fumbled, forced by Chase Christiansen, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
53.0%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
53.0%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+6
52.5%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
53.0%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
50.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 2Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.1%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:1646% → 46%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
54.4%
Jordan Love run for 20 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
53.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 13 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
52.9%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+4
53.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+5
53.1%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
53.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
54.8%
Jacob Stafford run for 1 yd to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
54.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+10
55.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
56.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass intercepted Ja'Marcus Ingram return for 25 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5048% → 46%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
52.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 11 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
51.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-10
51.5%
LOVE, Jordan pass complete to ROBERTS, B. for 39 yards to the AF0, clock 10:55, PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the AF49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 15
OPP 49
-2
52.4%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 17
OWN 49
0
53.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
54.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
53.6%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
53.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
52.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
52.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Zach Van Leeuwen at the AFA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:5349% → 59%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
50.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 16 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
50.6%
Aaren Vaughns run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+1
50.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+20
51.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to DJ Nelson for 20 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
50.5%
Tre Miller run for 2 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
40.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
41.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
41.0%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
40.9%
Charlie Scott punt for 17 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
50
+3
39.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
39.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Zach Van LeeuwenSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+1
39.3%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
39.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
14 plays · 91 yds · 2:4338% → 57%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
38.3%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+5
38.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+10
37.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
39.2%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+21
39.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for 21 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
40.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 16 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
42.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 11 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
42.1%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
41.9%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+10
39.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the UthSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
41.0%
SANDERS, Isaiah pass incomplete to BENNETT, Marcus, PENALTY USU pass interference (DAVIS, Jalen) 12 yards to the USU2, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
48.1%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
49.8%
Tyler Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
49.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
48.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 45 yds , Zach Van Leeuwen returns for no gain to the UthSt 34 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Braxton Gunther) to the UthSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
47.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+8
47.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 8 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
47.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 23 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
45.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+9
46.5%
Jordan Love run for 9 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
45.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
46.8%
Aaron Dalton punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4648% → 68%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
47.8%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
47.7%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
46.3%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 9 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
48.4%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+20
48.2%
Jacob Stafford run for 20 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
52.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Kade WaguespackSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+39
51.7%
Jacob Stafford run for 39 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+5
55.4%
BIRDOW, Taven rush for 2 yards to the USU7 (TAMAIVENA, Suli), PENALTY USU offside 5 yards to the USU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.8%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
61.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
63.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
64.4%
Aaron Dalton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20DOWNS
16 plays · 57 yds · 6:4466% → 66%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
66.1%
Jacob Stafford run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 2
50
+1
67.2%
Jacob Stafford run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+8
66.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.5%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
67.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 2 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+6
66.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+3
65.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
68.4%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+1
68.4%
Nolan Eriksen run for 1 yd to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+7
66.9%
Isaiah Sanders pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 7 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
68.4%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+7
68.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 7 yds to the UthSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
68.4%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
68.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.0%
Jacob Stafford run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 99 yds · 2:0335% → 67%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+46
65.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 46 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
60.2%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 7
50
+25
59.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 25 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
57.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax Raymond, broken up by Kyle FloydSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
58.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 6 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-5
59.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Roman Andrus) to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
33.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 24 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
40.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
38.3%
Isaiah Sanders sacked by Derek Larsen for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
37.3%
Charlie Scott punt for 72 yds, downed at the UthSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2766% → 29%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
33.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+4
34.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
71.5%
Santo Coppola Fumble Recovery in end zone (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:5633% → 77%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
67.0%
Gerold Bright run for 11 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
63.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 15 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
62.4%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+3
62.7%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+10
63.1%
Jordan Love run for 10 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
60.6%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
60.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+22
22.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 22 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:5037% → 91%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.0%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
39.6%
Isaiah Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
34.5%
Timothy McVey run for 12 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
38.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
50
+3
42.5%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
43.4%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
42.9%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
43.5%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
46.7%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
46.7%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+10
46.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
46.7%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
91.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
79.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 33 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
73.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
75.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Aaren VaughnsSimilar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
78.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Aaren VaughnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0291% → 90%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
91.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-2
91.3%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 14
OWN 38
-1
89.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:38
Isaiah Sanders run for 10 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+51.7
TD · Q4 5:28
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 22 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-37.9
TD · Q4 9:24
Santo Coppola Fumble Recovery in end zone (Luke Strebel Kick)
+34.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com