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NEV

Nevada 23 at San Diego State 42

SDSU
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:18 · John Baron II 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+36.0Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:07: Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +4.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:39: Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 5 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:22: Juwan Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:43: Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEV win probability +14.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:30: Rashaad Penny 100 Yd Kickoff Return (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 8:18SDSU 4th & 6 at NEV 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:07NEV 4th & 6 at SDSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:05NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:43SDSU 4th & 7 at NEV 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:42SDSU 4th & 22 at SDSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:09NEV 4th & 2 at SDSU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.8%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:55NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:16NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:52SDSU 4th & 5 at NEV 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:43NEV 4th & 2 at SDSU 2, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:49NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 40, down 12
    Close callPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:40SDSU 4th & 24 at SDSU 43, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:58NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 19, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:24NEV 4th & 8 at SDSU 46, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:00SDSU 4th & 2 at NEV 40, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:44NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:45SDSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:05SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:07NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:39SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:22SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:43NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:30SDSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:31SDSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:4289% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
89.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+4
89.2%
Fred Trevillion run for 4 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+11
89.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 11 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
89.2%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
89.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 13 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
89.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
89.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+11
89.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
89.2%
CHAPMAN, C. pass incomplete, PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the NEV45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+4
89.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+13
89.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 13 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-3
89.2%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
87.4%
John Baron II 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:1113% → 14%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.1%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
87.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 5 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
87.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 5 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
87.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 52 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
86.7%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the SDSt 6Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.7%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.9%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
85.9%
Spencer Pettit 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
85.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 19 yds Mikah Holder fumbled, forced by Elijah Moody, recovered by Nevad Dameon BaberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:0914% → 16%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.6%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
83.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 48 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
Q1 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
83.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:5384% → 86%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
84.4%
Juwan Washington run for 16 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
84.7%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
84.7%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+29
84.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 29 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
85.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 23 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3315% → 14%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
85.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
85.2%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+70
86.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 42 yds , Rashaad Penny returns for 70 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FUMBLE
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:0514% → 16%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.9%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
85.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 15 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
85.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
85.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 6 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
85.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+16
85.2%
Ty Gangi run for 16 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
84.1%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
84.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 11 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
84.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-7
84.0%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 24 Kelton Moore fumbled, recovered by SDSt Dakota TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:1785% → 84%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
85.3%
Juwan Washington run for 14 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
85.6%
Mikah Holder run for 1 yd to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
85.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Ahki MuhammadSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+9
85.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 9 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
85.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-1
86.0%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
85.0%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
84.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 1:2615% → 21%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+82
84.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 82 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
83.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
83.1%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 9Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
78.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 2:1980% → 78%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
80.4%
Ryan Agnew run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+17
80.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
81.4%
Ryan Agnew run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+2
80.4%
Ryan Agnew run for 2 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-5
79.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 17
OWN 37
-15
79.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 32
OWN 22
+10
77.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 10 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 22
OWN 32
0
77.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
77.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
77.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 6 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
76.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 6 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
76.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 2 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
76.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+6
76.7%
Ty Gangi run for 6 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
76.9%
Andrew Celis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:1978% → 84%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
78.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
77.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 11 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
78.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 19 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
79.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 8 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+3
79.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
79.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 6 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
79.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
83.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 5 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
83.0%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+8
83.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 8 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
80.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 6 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+7
79.5%
Kelton Moore run for 7 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
79.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 1 yd to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
80.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Kyahva TezinoSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
81.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:3780% → 90%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
80.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the SDSt 37 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 13
OWN 27
+7
80.2%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
81.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 9 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
81.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 15 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
82.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
82.2%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
82.6%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+31
82.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 31 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.6%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
88.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 8 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
87.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 3 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
88.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
88.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Daiyan Henley, broken up by Kameron KellySimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
89.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
88.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
89.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
89.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+14
89.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 14 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
89.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 6 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-10
89.7%
PENNY, Rashaad rush for 6 yards to the NEV33 (WEBER, Lucas), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the NEV49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+9
89.3%
Christian Chapman run for 9 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
89.3%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Juwan WashingtonSimilar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 5:0610% → 27%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
89.7%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+6
89.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 6 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
89.6%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
89.1%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+14
89.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 14 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
88.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Trey LomaxSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+53
88.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 53 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.1%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
86.0%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:369% → 7%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
90.7%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
90.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
92.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton MooreSimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
92.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
94.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
94.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 13 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
94.9%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-15
94.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Nick Bawden SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 24
OWN 43
0
94.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 24
OWN 43
0
94.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
94.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brandon Scott for 2 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
95.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Andrew CelisSimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+60
95.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 50 yds SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:3595% → 99%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
95.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 12 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
98.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 67 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
97.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trevion Armstrong for 4 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+13
97.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 13 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
97.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Blake Wright for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
97.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 7 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-12
97.2%
Ty Gangi sacked by Ronley Lakalaka for a loss of 12 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 22
OWN 40
0
97.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Trevion ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 22
OWN 40
+14
97.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 14 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+26
97.3%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Trey Lomax return for 26 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25END OF GAME
13 plays · 22 yds · 3:1899% → 99%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.1%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
99.0%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+15
99.0%
Juwan Washington run for 15 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.1%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
99.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+7
99.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Isaac Lessard for 7 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:30
Rashaad Penny 100 Yd Kickoff Return (John Baron II Kick)
+18.8
TD · Q4 13:43
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-14.4
TD · Q2 0:39
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 5 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com