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AF

Air Force 19 at Boise State 44

BOIS
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-1BOIS 98.9%Matthew Philichi 43 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 37 · Q4 12:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:59 · Matthew Philichi 43 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+9.7Home team on offense+29.1Score differential+20.3Garbage-time factor+7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.5Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:42: Nate Romine 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +3.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:39: Haden Hoggarth 28 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:22: Tyler Horton 21 Yd Fumble Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +5.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Luke Strebel 45 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +5.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:23: Octavius Evans 7 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:08BOIS 4th & 3 at AF 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:33AF 4th & 2 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:39BOIS 4th & 6 at AF 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:42AF 4th & 15 at AF 35, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:19BOIS 4th & 11 at AF 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:50AF 4th & 9 at AF 19, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:45BOIS 4th & 4 at AF 4, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:50AF 4th & 6 at BOIS 29, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:59AF 4th & 15 at BOIS 26, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:48BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 39, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:21BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:47BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:42AF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:22BOIS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:23BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:02AF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:42BOIS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0913% → 13%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
87.5%
TEAM run for no gain to the AFA 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Sonatane LuiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2088% → 87%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
87.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+9
87.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 9 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
87.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+6
87.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
86.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
87.0%
Haden Hoggarth 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2613% → 14%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
86.9%
Nate Romine run for 17 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
86.6%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
86.4%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 2
50
0
86.2%
Jacob Stafford run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 2
50
0
86.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
87.0%
A.J. Richardson 87 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:2213% → 14%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.9%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
86.8%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
86.7%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.6%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-6
86.4%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 23 Nate Romine fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Gabe PerezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4887% → 89%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
87.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 6 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
87.0%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
86.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+5
86.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
87.0%
Montell Cozart run for 3 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
87.2%
Montell Cozart run for 1 yd to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
89.4%
Sean Modster 8 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:4911% → 14%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
89.0%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+18
89.1%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jacob Stafford for 18 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
89.0%
Ronald Cleveland run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+20
88.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 20 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
88.7%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+28
88.7%
Nate Romine pass complete to Kade Waguespack for 28 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.8%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.7%
Nate Romine 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:2187% → 90%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+36
86.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 36 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.0%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
87.0%
Ryan Wolpin run for 11 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
87.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 8 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+1
87.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
86.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
87.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+5
87.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+8
86.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 8 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+1
87.0%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the AFA 11Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
90.2%
Haden Hoggarth 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1011% → 6%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
89.0%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-21
94.0%
Tyler Horton 21 Yd Fumble Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:336% → 5%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
94.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 14 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
93.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 20
OWN 30
-1
94.1%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27 Timothy McVey fumbled, recovered by AFA Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 23
OWN 27
+2
94.3%
Nolan Eriksen run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 21
OWN 29
+6
94.5%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
94.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:1595% → 96%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+33
95.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 33 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
95.5%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-2
95.5%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+11
95.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 11 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+15
95.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 15 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
96.0%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
96.2%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Ryan WolpinSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+51
95.9%
Haden Hoggarth 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:125% → 11%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
94.9%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+4
94.7%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
95.3%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-5
95.3%
Nate Romine sacked by Desmond Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+29
95.6%
Nate Romine pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 29 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+45
89.4%
Luke Strebel 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3092% → 97%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
92.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 29 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.2%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
92.2%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+39
91.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 39 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.5%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.8%
Octavius Evans 7 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:104% → 3%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
96.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Nolan Eriksen for 5 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+2
96.5%
Nolan Eriksen run for 2 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+6
96.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 6 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
96.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jacob Stafford for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
97.0%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
97.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 52 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 6:0097% → 100%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
97.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 17
OWN 22
+30
97.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 30 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
97.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+15
97.5%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Wilson, Cedrick, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference 15 yards to the AIRFORCE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
97.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
97.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+6
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 6 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
97.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 13 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
98.0%
Montell Cozart run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.1%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 2 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.7%
Haden Hoggarth 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:300% → 1%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
99.7%
Nate Romine run for 33 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
99.7%
Nate Romine run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
99.8%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.8%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-4
99.8%
Nate Romine sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+5
99.8%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+8
99.8%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the BoiSt 29 Nate Romine fumbled, recovered by AFASimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 18
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 18
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+43
98.9%
Matthew Philichi 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5299% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
99.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-2
99.1%
Cedrick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-5
99.1%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
99.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 39 lat. to Ryan Wolpin for no gain to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 18
OWN 39
0
99.0%
Quinn Skillin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:351% → 3%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
99.1%
Nate Romine run for 12 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.0%
Jacob Stafford run for 7 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
99.0%
Isaiah Sanders pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
99.1%
Jacob Stafford run for 5 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.1%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
99.1%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
99.2%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+19
99.2%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (16 Yards) to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
99.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.1%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:1398% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
98.4%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+15
98.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
98.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+13
98.9%
Cozart, Montell pass incomplete, PENALTY AIRFORCE personal foul 13 yards to the AIRFORCE13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
98.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+15
98.9%
Ryan Wolpin run for 15 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
99.0%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
99.0%
Jake Roh run for 3 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Malik Miller run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
99.8%
Cole Fagan run for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
99.8%
Isaiah Sanders sacked by Kayode Rufai for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+7
99.7%
Cole Fagan run for 7 yds to the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:22
Tyler Horton 21 Yd Fumble Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
+5
FG · Q2 0:00
Luke Strebel 45 yd FG GOOD
-5
TD · Q3 12:23
Octavius Evans 7 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com