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BYU

BYU 31 at UNLV 21

UNLV
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2017 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:36 · Johnny Stanton run for 3 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Pregame prior+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Joe Critchlow pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 11 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +12.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:04: Squally Canada run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +12.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:23: Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 18 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +15.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:40: Austin Kafentzis run for 11 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +20.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:46: Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +21.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:23UNLV 4th & 19 at BYU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:45UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:59BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:36UNLV 4th & 2 at BYU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:13BYU 4th & 1 at UNLV 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−2.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:59UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 24, down 14
    Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:06BYU 4th & 16 at UNLV 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−6.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 3 at BYU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−2.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:53BYU 4th & 1 at UNLV 47, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:20UNLV 4th & 11 at BYU 40, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%
    34% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:39BYU 4th & 8 at UNLV 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−9.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:39UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:51BYU 4th & 11 at UNLV 12, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−4.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 9:06BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:25UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:27BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:04BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:23UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:40BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:46UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:3756% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.0%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
56.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
56.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 3 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
56.0%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 25 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
56.0%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+17
56.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 17 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
56.0%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the BYU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
56.0%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-9
56.0%
Johnny Stanton sacked by Corbin Kaufusi for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 19
OPP 31
+48
56.2%
Evan Pantels 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
56.1%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Brayden El-Bakri for 4 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
56.0%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Matt Bushman for 6 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
55.9%
Joe Critchlow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
56.0%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-4
55.9%
Joe Critchlow sacked by Nick Dehdashtian for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
56.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
56.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 16 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
56.4%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 5 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
56.7%
Johnny Stanton run for no gain to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
56.2%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
56.0%
Evan Pantels punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
56.1%
Austin Kafentzis run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+10
56.3%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 10 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
55.6%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
56.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 52 yds, downed at the UNLV 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5INT
15 plays · 79 yds · 4:3656% → 58%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
56.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+37
56.4%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 37 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
57.5%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 5 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
57.7%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
57.5%
Johnny Stanton run for 2 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
57.7%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 5 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
57.7%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+3
57.5%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+3
56.9%
Johnny Stanton run for 3 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
59.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
59.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 2 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-1
58.4%
Johnny Stanton run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 17 Johnny Stanton fumbled, forced by Micah Hannemann, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
59.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 3 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
59.0%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
58.4%
Johnny Stanton pass intercepted, touchback. Zayne Anderson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2144% → 55%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
55.9%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+20
55.7%
Austin Kafentzis run for 20 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+30
54.5%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Micah Simon for 30 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
53.4%
Austin Kafentzis run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
53.4%
Brayden El-Bakri run for 3 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+19
54.1%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 19 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.3%
Brayden El-Bakri run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:4148% → 60%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
47.9%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Kendal Keys for 12 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+35
48.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 35 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
51.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+9
51.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 9 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
51.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+16
51.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 16 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.4%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.3%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 3:5346% → 63%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
54.2%
Squally Canada run for 10 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
53.4%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
52.0%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Matt Bushman for 5 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
51.9%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
51.3%
Joe Critchlow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
52.0%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 3 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
52.7%
Joe Critchlow run for 2 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
51.0%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Matt Bushman for 26 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
49.9%
Joe Critchlow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
49.9%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+11
37.0%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 11 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:4961% → 75%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+54
39.5%
Squally Canada run for 54 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
37.3%
Austin Kafentzis run for 6 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+6
37.3%
Austin Kafentzis run for 6 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.9%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
28.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
28.1%
Johnny Stanton run for no gain to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+6
27.6%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 6 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
27.9%
Evan Pantels punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:5077% → 78%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
23.4%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 10 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
23.1%
Squally Canada run for 11 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
23.1%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+15
22.7%
CRITCHLOW, J. pass incomplete to TANNER, B., PENALTY UNLV pass interference (FLOWERS, Jerich) 15 yards to the UNLV20, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
22.7%
Austin Kafentzis run for 1 yd to the UNLV 19Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
22.7%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Matt Bushman for 3 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
23.0%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 6
OPP 16
-10
21.6%
ALMOND, R. field goal attempt from 34 GOOD, clock 08:12, PENALTY BYU holding (KAUFUSI, C.) 10 yards to the UNLV26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+44
22.0%
Rhett Almond 44 yd FG MISSED BYU Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:4323% → 42%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+35
23.1%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 35 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
25.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Tim Holt for 9 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
26.7%
Johnny Stanton run for no gain to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
26.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 1 yd to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
26.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 9 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
26.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
26.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the BYU 8 UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (Darren Woods Jr.) to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 14
OPP 18
+18
42.4%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 18 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4369% → 87%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
31.1%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Talon Shumway for 16 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
30.5%
Squally Canada run for 8 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+11
29.8%
Squally Canada run for 11 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
29.8%
Squally Canada run for 13 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
33.4%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 26 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Gabe McCoy) to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
13.3%
Austin Kafentzis run for 11 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:3417% → 18%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
16.9%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 13 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
17.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 16 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
19.1%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
18.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 6 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+1
19.3%
Johnny Stanton run for 1 yd to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
17.8%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
12.6%
Austin Kafentzis run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
50
+3
12.5%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
12.4%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
13.9%
Jonny Linehan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Presley at the UNLV 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 2:3414% → 37%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
14.3%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
14.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+50
14.2%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 50 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
17.3%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Tim HoltSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
16.9%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-1
16.6%
Johnny Stanton run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 11
OPP 40
+27
15.7%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 27 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
36.9%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:5977% → 87%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
22.6%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
50
+12
21.8%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Matt Bushman for 12 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
21.8%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Dalton BakerSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+14
21.8%
Squally Canada run for 14 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
21.0%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+5
21.0%
Austin Kafentzis run for 5 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
21.0%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the UNLV 11 Squally Canada fumbled, forced by Gabe McCoy, recovered by BYU Matt BushmanSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-1
21.0%
Squally Canada run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+2
22.1%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
12.6%
Rhett Almond 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.4%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Brandon Presley, broken up by Chris WilcoxSimilar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.1%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
12.0%
STANTON, Johnny pass incomplete to TEJCHMAN, Drew, PENALTY UNLV holding (JACOBSON, Natha) 10 yards to the UNLV19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
11.2%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Drew TejchmanSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
10.5%
Evan Pantels punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the UNLV 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 37 yds · 2:5690% → 96%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
10.1%
Squally Canada run for 10 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
10.1%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+21
10.0%
Squally Canada run for 21 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
6.8%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-10
6.6%
CANADA, S. rush for 4 yards to the UNLV2 (HUGHES JR., Mik), PENALTY BYU holding (NWIGWE, JJ) 10 yards to the UNLV16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 15
OPP 16
-2
6.9%
Austin Kafentzis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 17
OPP 18
+6
6.0%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 11
OPP 12
0
4.4%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+26
3.5%
Johnny Stanton pass intercepted Fred Warner return for 26 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 4Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:46
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
+21.2
TD · Q3 1:40
Austin Kafentzis run for 11 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)
-20
TD · Q3 4:23
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 18 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
+15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com