Try the model
SJSU

San José State 14 at Nevada 59

NEV
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:53 · Quinton Conaway punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+35.4Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:51: Tyler Nevens run for 12 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:02: Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 39 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +1.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:55: Ty Gangi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +3.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:51: Montel Aaron pass intercepted for a TD Dameon Baber return for 100 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +5.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:28: Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 8SJSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:53NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09SJSU 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:38NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:06SJSU 4th & 14 at SJSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:06SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:55SJSU 4th & 1 at NEV 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:51SJSU 4th & 18 at SJSU 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:57SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:50NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 34, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:06NEV 4th & 3 at SJSU 3, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:32SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 22, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:48NEV 4th & 10 at SJSU 37, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:37SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 33, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:35NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 26, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 41, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:24NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 43, up 45
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:31SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 36, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:05NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 12, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:51SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:02NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:55NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:51NEV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:28NEV Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:35NEV Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:17NEV Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:54NEV Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:17SJSU Touchdown, down 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1INT
11 plays · 61 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
86.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 11 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
86.9%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Walker for 10 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
86.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
86.9%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside (Korey Rush) to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+4
86.9%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Austin Liles for 4 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-10
86.9%
NEVENS, Tyler rush for loss of 2 yards to the NEV34 (PAULHUS, Austin), PENALTY SJ holding (VELICHKO, Nate) 10 yards to the NEV42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+19
86.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 19 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
86.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+4
86.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
86.9%
Montel Aaron pass intercepted Dameon Baber return for no gain to the Nevad 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
86.0%
Ty Gangi run for 4 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
86.0%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-1
85.9%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 16Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
85.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
85.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
85.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+1
85.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 2
50
0
85.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
84.9%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
84.9%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+1
84.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 1 yd to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 2
OWN 18
-5
84.7%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 13Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
84.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:5516% → 19%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
83.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+13
83.6%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Walker for 13 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
81.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 12 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4982% → 84%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
82.4%
Ty Gangi run for 4 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.2%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
82.5%
Ty Gangi run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
50
0
82.6%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 10
50
+1
82.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+10
82.3%
GANGI, Ty pass intercepted by KELLY, Jermaine at the SJ40, KELLY, Jermaine return to the NEV42, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SJ holding (KELLY, Jermaine) 10 yards to the SJ39, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
83.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 39 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT TD
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:5217% → 15%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
82.8%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+6
82.7%
Montel Aaron run for 6 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.5%
Montel Aaron pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
82.6%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-7
82.6%
Montel Aaron sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+6
85.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt blocked by Wyatt Demps blocked by Wyatt Demps Dameon Baber return for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.0%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
85.0%
Montel Aaron run for 3 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
85.2%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to William OssaiSimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
85.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:0985% → 89%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
85.1%
Ty Gangi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+7
85.0%
Kelton Moore run for 7 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
85.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+43
85.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 43 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
85.8%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
85.8%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
85.5%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.8%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.2%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10INT TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:0412% → 8%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
87.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 19 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
87.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 8 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+6
87.0%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 6 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
87.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
86.6%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the Nevad 35Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
87.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
87.4%
Montel Aaron run for 1 yd to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
86.8%
DeJon Packer run for 10 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
86.6%
DeJon Packer run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+100
92.5%
Montel Aaron pass intercepted for a TD Dameon Baber return for 100 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
DeJon Packer run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
93.5%
Montel Aaron sacked by Austin Paulhus for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+5
93.5%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 63 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3195% → 98%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
94.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 22 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
95.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+44
95.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 44 yds to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
95.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Justin Holmes for 10 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.1%
Zamore Zigler run for 4 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
97.9%
Zamore Zigler run for 3 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-9
97.9%
Montel Aaron sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
98.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
98.0%
Kelton Moore run for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+1
98.0%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
97.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton Moore, broken up by William OssaiSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
97.8%
Quinton Conaway punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.5%
Malike Roberson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-2
98.5%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+44
98.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 44 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
97.8%
Montel Aaron sacked by Korey Rush and Malik Reed for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 16
OPP 29
0
98.5%
Montel Aaron sacked by Patrick Choudja for a loss of 11 yards to the SJSt 25 Montel Aaron fumbled, recovered by Nevad Hausia Sekona , return for 0 yards , return for 15 yds to the SJSt 14 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Keoni Taylor) to the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:4299% → 99%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton MooreSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
98.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 16 yds to the SJSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
98.8%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
98.9%
Spencer Pettit 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
Zamore Zigler run for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2599% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Jermaine KellySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.0%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+21
99.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brandon Scott for 21 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Ty Gangi run for no gain to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.0%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+15
99.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 15 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
99.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 9 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+4
98.9%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
99.0%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY SJ pass interference (CHACHERE, Andre) 12 yards to the SJ10, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 2 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Jaxson Kincaide 6 Yd pass from Ty Gangi (Spencer Pettit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
99.4%
Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 6 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to JaQuan Blackwell, broken up by Gabriel SewellSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+8
99.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 55 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 8 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre Walker SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
99.5%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY SJ pass interference (McKNIGHT, Mauri) 15 yards to the NEV46, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.5%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 6
50
+5
99.5%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+8
99.5%
Kelton Moore run for 8 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-5
99.6%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY NEV ineligible downfield on pass (CORBETT, Austin) 5 yards to the SJ37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
99.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Blake Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+3
99.5%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
99.5%
Ty Gangi punt for 28 yds, downed at the SJSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
99.7%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 8Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+12
99.7%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Billy Humphreys for 12 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 5 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
99.6%
Montel Aaron run for 4 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.7%
Zamore Zigler run for 2 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre Hartley, broken up by Elijah MoodySimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Rahshead JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.7%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 45 yds, downed at the SJSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23INT TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.8%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+39
99.8%
Dameon Baber 39 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Pettit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
Malike Roberson run for 11 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.8%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-5
99.8%
LOVE, Josh pass complete to HUMPHREYS, Bill for 6 yards to the SJ41 (PAULHUS, Austin), PENALTY SJ ineligible downfield on pass (VELICHKO, Nate) 5 yards to the SJ30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+14
99.9%
Malike Roberson run for 14 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-3
99.9%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:24
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Quinton Conaway punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 20Similar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Cristian Solano pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+16
99.8%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 16 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Dominic Christian for 5 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Blake Wright run for no gain to the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Malike Roberson run for 8 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+10
99.9%
Zamore Zigler run for 10 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Billy HumphreysSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Zamore Zigler run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to BLACKWELL, JaQu, PENALTY NEV pass interference (JACKSON, M.) 15 yards to the NEV44, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
99.9%
DeJon Packer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 46 DeJon Packer fumbled, recovered by Nevad Hausia SekonaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
99.9%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ahki Muhammad) to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.9%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Tucker Melcher for 9 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+26
99.9%
Blake Wright run for 26 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Dominic Christian for 3 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Blake Wright run for 4 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+11
99.9%
Blake Wright run for 11 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
99.9%
Blake Wright run for 9 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Blake Wright run for 7 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Zamore Zigler run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
100.0%
Zamore Zigler run for 7 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
100.0%
DeJon Packer run for 7 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Michael Carrillo run for 3 yds to the SJSt 44 Michael Carrillo fumbled, recovered by SJSt DeJon PackerSimilar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-3
100.0%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
100.0%
Josh Love sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 59 yds, downed at the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
100.0%
Russell Booze run for 3 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+4
100.0%
Russell Booze run for 4 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Maliek Broady run for no gain to the Nevad 12 NEVADA Penalty, clipping ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+16
100.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 52 yds , Thai Cottrell returns for 16 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 30TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
100.0%
LOVE, Josh pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre, PENALTY NEV pass interference (MACK, Ryan) 15 yards to the NEV33, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
100.0%
NEVADA Penalty, targeting (Mar'Quette Jackson) to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
100.0%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive holding (Lucas Weber) to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
100.0%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Austin Liles for 9 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
100.0%
Malike Roberson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
100.0%
Michael Carrillo pass incomplete to Austin Liles, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
Michael Carrillo pass complete to Sean Pinson for 12 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:51
Montel Aaron pass intercepted for a TD Dameon Baber return for 100 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q2 11:55
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 4:28
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com