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BOIS

Boise State 59 at Colorado State 52

CSU
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:56 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 172Home team on offense+15.2Pregame prior−2.1Garbage-time factor+9.1Score differential+2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:20: Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — CSU win probability +21.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:44: Robert Mahone run for 6 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +17.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 1:41: Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 13 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +15.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:57: Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 6 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +41.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +20.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:51BOIS 4th & 6 at CSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:19CSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 1, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−12.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:25CSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 41, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−2.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:54CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:38BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:50CSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 1, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%−6.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−24.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:50BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:56CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:57CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−4.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:14CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:18CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:40CSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:19CSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:20BOIS Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:26CSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:34BOIS Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 14:18BOIS Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 12:01BOIS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:57CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:44BOIS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:02CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:41BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:57BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−3.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4637% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
37.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
37.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 39 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
37.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
37.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+10
37.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 10 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
37.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
39.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 5:1661% → 59%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
39.1%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
39.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 11 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
38.9%
Montell Cozart run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
38.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+10
38.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 10 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
38.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
38.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
38.8%
Montell Cozart run for 3 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
38.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
38.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete, broken up by Shun JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
38.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 11 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
38.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
38.7%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+5
38.9%
Montell Cozart run for 5 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
41.0%
Haden Hoggarth 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3341% → 47%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
41.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 33 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
42.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 10 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
42.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+8
42.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 8 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
42.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+16
42.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 16 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
42.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
47.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 7 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
45.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for 16 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
45.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
45.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for a loss of 2 yards Octavius Evans fumbled, forced by Evan Colorito, recovered by ColSt Jake SchlagerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2848% → 58%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
48.3%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
48.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+2
47.9%
Adam Prentice run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
48.3%
Rashaad Boddie run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+11
48.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 11 yds to the BoiSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
48.2%
Rashaad Boddie run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
48.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Tyler HortonSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 4 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3442% → 41%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
58.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
58.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
59.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
59.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 36 yds, downed at the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:1760% → 63%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
60.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
60.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 5 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
60.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+15
62.6%
STEVENS, N. pass intercepted by NAWAHINE, Kekoa at the BSU41, NAWAHINE, Kekoa return to the CSU0, clock 12:45, PENALTY BSU roughing passer (FRAZIER, Jabril) 15 yards to the BSU33, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
63.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 11 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
63.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
62.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashaad Boddie for 8 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5945% → 34%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
52.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+48
53.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 48 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
49.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
44.5%
Montell Cozart run for 1 yd to the ColSt 9Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
66.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
17 plays · 73 yds · 5:4570% → 83%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by DeAndre PierceSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
69.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
68.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
70.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 9 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
69.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
50
+2
70.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-5
69.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+17
69.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 17 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
70.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
69.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
69.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+9
69.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 9 yds to the BoiSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
74.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+10
74.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 10 yds to the BoiSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5223% → 30%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
76.9%
Brett Rypien run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.6%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+19
75.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 19 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
74.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for 18 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
69.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 26 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
77.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
77.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
78.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+2
77.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
77.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton Fackrell, broken up by Kekaula KanihoSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
76.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:1924% → 24%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
76.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick Wilson, broken up by Jordan FogalSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
76.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for 11 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
76.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 10 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST down lat. to Sean Modster for 4 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST down lat. to Alexander Mattison for 16 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4222% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
66.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 70 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
68.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Adam PrenticeSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
67.1%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Avery Williams return for no gain to the BoiSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:3834% → 51%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
65.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 15 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
65.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
63.7%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
48.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 25 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
54.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
54.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 12 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
56.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
56.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Leighton Vander EschSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-3
54.5%
Nick Stevens sacked by Durrant Miles for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+1
52.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 38 yds , Avery Williams returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
57.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
57.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, delay of game (Montell Cozart) to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+3
57.9%
Montell Cozart run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
59.2%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
60.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:5060% → 79%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
60.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 1 yd to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
59.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+7
61.1%
Rashaad Boddie run for 7 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
62.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
63.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+32
62.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 32 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
63.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
79.2%
Nick Stevens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 4:0423% → 46%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
76.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 17 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
75.6%
Ryan Wolpin run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.8%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Cedrick Wilson, broken up by Darnell ThompsonSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+22
75.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 22 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
73.3%
Sean Modster pass incomplete to Alec DhaenensSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
73.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+13
74.1%
Montell Cozart run for 13 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
71.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+12
71.5%
Ryan Wolpin run for 12 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.5%
Robert Mahone run for 6 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:5465% → 83%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 9 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
67.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
67.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 23 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
69.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
69.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn Dawkins, broken up by Durrant MilesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+17
68.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 17 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
70.3%
Nick Stevens run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+9
70.3%
STEVENS, N. pass incomplete to GALLUP, M. (HORTON, Tyler), PENALTY BSU pass interference (HORTON, Tyler) 9 yards to the BSU9, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
70.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
70.4%
Nick Stevens run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
82.6%
Wyatt Bryan 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 9 yds to the BoiSt 34 BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 11
OWN 24
0
77.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake Roh, broken up by Josh WatsonSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
77.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick Wilson, broken up by Shun JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
78.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
79.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
82.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 12 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
84.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
84.4%
Darius May run for 3 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-1
83.2%
Nick Stevens sacked by Matt Locher for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
82.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
82.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+3
80.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
81.7%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
82.1%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Jordan Fogal return for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:5889% → 98%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
89.2%
Rashaad Boddie run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+7
89.3%
Rashaad Boddie run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
89.3%
Rashaad Boddie run for 26 yds to the BoiSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
89.3%
Rashaad Boddie run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
89.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 3:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.5%
Rashaad Boddie run for 4 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:145% → 19%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jabril FrazierSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
95.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 20 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
94.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 4 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
94.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+15
94.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 15 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
94.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+12
94.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 12 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
93.4%
Brett Rypien sacked by Evan Colorito for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+14
96.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean Modster, broken up by Shun Johnson for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shun Johnson) to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
80.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 13 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:4314% → 62%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
85.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 6 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
84.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 7 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+25
82.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 25 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
80.9%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the ColSt 6Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 6 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
61.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Darius May, broken up by Durrant MilesSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
57.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for no gain to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
56.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:1449% → 52%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
51.1%
Brett Rypien sacked by Richard King for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+14
51.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
47.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
40.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+15
43.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 15 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 30FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
28.1%
Rashaad Boddie run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
28.1%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 13Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+7
28.1%
Rashaad Boddie run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
25.8%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 3 Rashaad Boddie fumbled, forced by Leighton Vander Esch, recovered by BoiSt Tyler HortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:57
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 6 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-41
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-25.8
TD · Q2 8:20
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com