Try the model
WYO

Wyoming 28 at Air Force 14

AF
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreWYO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:04 · Charlie Scott punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Home team on offense−1.4Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.8Pregame prior+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:12: Josh Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +14.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:35: Josh Allen pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson — WYO win probability +8.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:35: Taven Birdow run for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +15.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:54: Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds to the Wyom 38 — WYO win probability +13.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:51: Kellen Overstreet run for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +17.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 10WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:18AF 4th & 2 at WYO 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04AF 4th & 5 at AF 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:59AF 4th & 2 at AF 24, down 14
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:06AF 4th & 2 at AF 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:35WYO 4th & 9 at AF 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:53WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:15AF 4th & 1 at AF 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.4%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:28WYO 4th & 18 at WYO 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−5.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:47AF 4th & 2 at WYO 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:07WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:01AF 4th & 1 at WYO 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−7.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:43AF 4th & 18 at AF 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:42WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:37AF 4th & 4 at WYO 12, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%−1.5
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:02WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:46AF 4th & 9 at WYO 25, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:24WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:12WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:25AF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:35AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:51WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.3%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
58.3%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
58.3%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
58.3%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
58.3%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+31
58.3%
Arion Worthman pass intercepted Marcus Epps return for 31 yds to the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:1942% → 44%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
58.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 16 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
58.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 7 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.0%
Josh Allen run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.4%
Trey Woods run for 1 yd for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
56.9%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
57.0%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
57.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for 6 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
57.3%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
57.2%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
57.4%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the Wyom 48Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
57.4%
Jacob Stafford run for 1 yd to the Wyom 47Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+1
57.2%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Wyom 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
54.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 9 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
54.6%
Kellen Overstreet run for 2 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
54.6%
Kellen Overstreet run for 4 yds to the AFA 39 Kellen Overstreet fumbled, forced by Grant Ross, recovered by AFA Kyle FloydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
55.7%
Taven Birdow run for no gain to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
55.6%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+4
55.4%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
55.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:3546% → 46%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
54.5%
Austin Conway run for 8 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+9
53.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
53.5%
Josh Allen sacked by Jack Flor for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 34Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 16
OWN 34
-4
53.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Milo Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the Wyom 30Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 20
OWN 30
-11
53.9%
Josh Allen sacked by Lakota Wills for a loss of 11 yards to the Wyom 19Similar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 31
OWN 19
0
54.4%
Tim Zaleski punt for 65 yds, downed at the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4654% → 53%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
53.5%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
53.5%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+6
53.2%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the AFA 34 Taven Birdow fumbled, forced by Logan Wilson, recovered by Wyom Jalen OrtizSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:5050% → 55%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
50.3%
ALLEN, Josh pass incomplete to MAYFIELD, Tyree (FLOYD, Kyle), PENALTY AF pass interference (FLOYD, Kyle) 15 yards to the AF19, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
50.4%
Kellen Overstreet run for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
45.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jared Scott for 17 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
46.7%
Arion Worthman sacked by Youhanna Ghaifan for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+7
46.6%
Jacob Stafford run for 7 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+4
46.5%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
46.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:5556% → 67%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
44.5%
Austin Conway pass complete to Austin Fort for 20 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
43.6%
Trey Woods run for 10 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
43.5%
Trey Woods run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+8
43.5%
Kellen Overstreet run for 8 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
43.5%
Kellen Overstreet run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+5
47.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 5 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+11
47.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 11 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
47.7%
Kellen Overstreet run for 8 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
47.7%
Kellen Overstreet run for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.8%
Josh Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0033% → 35%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
33.4%
Jacob Stafford run for 9 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
34.0%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
33.6%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
34.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-10
33.4%
WORTHMAN, Arion rush for 7 yards to the AF42 (EPPS, Marcus;WINGARD, A.), PENALTY AF holding (BEVERIDGE, Ryan) 10 yards to the AF25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+15
33.0%
WORTHMAN, Arion pass incomplete to BENNETT, Marcus, PENALTY WY pass interference (PRIESTER, R.) 15 yards to the AF40, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
34.5%
Jacob Stafford run for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
35.4%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+1
35.4%
Jacob Stafford run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 2
OWN 48
-1
35.2%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
26.5%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
26.7%
Kellen Overstreet run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
26.8%
Josh Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Santo CoppolaSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
27.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:0727% → 35%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
27.1%
Taven Birdow run for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
27.4%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
27.9%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
28.0%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
29.1%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
28.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
28.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 8 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
29.8%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 23 yds to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
30.8%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
30.4%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+22
35.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 22 yds for a TD (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
30.2%
Trey Woods run for 5 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
30.0%
Trey Woods run for 7 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
29.1%
Kellen Overstreet run for no gain to the Wyom 41Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
29.4%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
29.7%
WYOMING Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+3
30.9%
Nico Evans run for 3 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
30.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 30 yds, downed at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:4029% → 46%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
28.8%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
28.7%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
29.0%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+3
29.5%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
30.5%
Arion Worthman run for 14 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+33
30.9%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Timothy McVey for 33 yds to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
46.1%
Taven Birdow run for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
39.0%
Trey Woods run for 3 yds to the Wyom 26Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+15
38.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Lakota Wills) to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
36.3%
Trey Woods run for 1 yd to the Wyom 42Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
36.6%
Nick Smith pass incomplete to James PriceSimilar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-9
37.2%
Nick Smith sacked by Lakota Wills for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 33Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
40.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
39.1%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-1
39.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+16
37.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 16 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.9%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVey, broken up by Cassh MaluiaSimilar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
39.4%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 14 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
42.2%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
43.2%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 4
50
+2
42.9%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
41.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 28 yds, downed at the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
34.3%
Trey Woods run for 9 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
32.7%
Kellen Overstreet run for 2 yds to the Wyom 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
33.3%
Nick Smith pass complete to Austin Conway for 1 yd to the Wyom 32Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-2
33.6%
Nick Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 30Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+6
35.4%
Nick Smith run for 6 yds to the Wyom 37 Nick Smith fumbled, forced by Grant Ross, recovered by Wyom Nick SmithSimilar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
34.2%
Tim Zaleski punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20FUMBLE
13 plays · 49 yds · 2:0335% → 41%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
35.4%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+9
35.5%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 9 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
36.0%
Jacob Stafford run for 8 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
39.2%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
36.1%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
36.4%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
38.0%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Wyom 45Similar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
36.2%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
38.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Nolan Eriksen for 9 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
40.9%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
40.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-3
40.9%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 33 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by Wyom Garrett CrallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:0373% → 95%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
27.0%
Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
25.3%
Trey Woods run for no gain to the Wyom 38Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+10
25.7%
Nico Evans run for 10 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
25.0%
WYOMING Penalty, false start (Logan Harris) to the Wyom 43Similar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+38
26.2%
Nick Smith pass complete to Trey Woods for 38 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
23.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+5
23.3%
Nick Smith run for 5 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
5.4%
Kellen Overstreet run for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
8.8%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
9.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-10
8.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Barnhorst) to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
7.9%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+3
7.9%
Charlie Scott punt for 56 yds , Austin Conway returns for 3 yds to the Wyom 31 WYOMING Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 1:3495% → 97%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
5.2%
Kellen Overstreet run for 6 yds to the Wyom 15Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+6
5.0%
Trey Woods run for 6 yds to the Wyom 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
3.2%
Kellen Overstreet run for 2 yds to the Wyom 23Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
3.3%
Nick Smith run for no gain to the Wyom 23Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-2
3.6%
Trey Woods run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 21Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
3.3%
Tim Zaleski punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
3.0%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 24 yds to the Wyom 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
3.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 11 yds to the Wyom 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
3.6%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
3.5%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the Wyom 14Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+2
3.6%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the Wyom 12Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 4
OPP 12
0
3.5%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
2.9%
Kellen Overstreet run for no gain to the Wyom 12Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-2
2.9%
Kellen Overstreet run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 10Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+4
3.0%
Nick Smith run for 4 yds to the Wyom 14Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+6
2.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 32 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 6 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
1.4%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
1.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jacob Stafford for 14 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
1.6%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Wyom 25Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
1.6%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland, broken up by Cassh MaluiaSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
1.4%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 9
OPP 25
-9
1.3%
Arion Worthman sacked by Taniela Lolohea for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 33Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-1
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:51
Kellen Overstreet run for 9 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q3 9:35
Taven Birdow run for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Strebel KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q2 7:12
Josh Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com