2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:43 · Tim Zaleski punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:50: Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Cooper Rothe 43 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +6.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:39: Wyatt Bryan 27 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:21: Kellen Overstreet run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +37.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:38: Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds to the Wyom 32 — WYO win probability +13.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 11:46CSU 4th & 9 at WYO 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call58.1%70% to makePunt57.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:46WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snapGo for it41.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.6%average punt
- Q1 10:03CSU 4th & 3 at WYO 41, up 3Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snapGo for it58.0%52% to convertField goal57.8%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call57.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:55WYO 4th & 18 at WYO 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it41.4%−0.511% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.9%average punt
- Q1 4:21CSU 4th & 21 at CSU 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snapGo for it55.4%−1.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.5%average punt
- Q2 13:10WYO 4th & 8 at CSU 8, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snapGo for it43.8%−0.326% to convertField goalTheir call44.2%90% to makePunt40.6%−3.6average punt
- Q2 6:50WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snapGo for it33.9%−2.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.2%average punt
- Q2 1:06CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it63.8%−1.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q3 11:47WYO 4th & 10 at CSU 15, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snapGo for it40.6%−1.727% to convertField goalTheir call42.4%83% to makePunt33.0%−9.3average punt
- Q3 5:19CSU 4th & 8 at WYO 28, up 1Close callWent for it · 54.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.6%−0.834% to convertField goal54.4%60% to makePunt45.4%−9.0average punt
- Q3 5:19CSU 4th & 11 at WYO 16, up 1Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 54.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.6%−2.624% to convertField goal53.3%81% to makePunt41.5%−11.7average punt
- Q3 2:43WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it45.1%−2.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%average punt
- Q4 10:39CSU 4th & 6 at WYO 9, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snapGo for it54.6%−0.633% to convertField goalTheir call55.2%89% to makePunt34.1%−21.1average punt
- Q4 10:03CSU 4th & 6 at WYO 35, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.6%40% to convertField goal68.0%−1.645% to makePunt66.5%−3.0average punt
- Q4 4:21CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 25, down 3Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it24.5%35% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.5%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 6:50CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.1%97% to makeGo for two62.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:21WYO Touchdown, up 2 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call69.2%−0.897% to makeGo for two70.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCSUDrive 1FG10 plays · 52 yds · 3:1466% → 65%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
33.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
WYODrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
CSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q1 4:21
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-5
37.0%
Nick Stevens sacked by Youhanna Ghaifan for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 20
OWN 27
-1
37.4%
Nick Stevens sacked by Cassh Maluia for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 21
OWN 26
0
37.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6FG13 plays · 61 yds · 4:3937% → 41%
Q1 2:49
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+11
36.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Nico Evans for 11 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
38.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 21 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+21
40.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Trey Woods for 21 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2061% → 71%
Q2 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+14
37.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 14 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
37.1%
STEVENS, N. pass incomplete to WILSON, M., PENALTY CSU holding 10 yards to the WY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+28
38.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 28 yds to the Wyom 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
31.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 14 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT12 plays · 19 yds · 3:2969% → 69%
WYODrive 10FG8 plays · 54 yds · 1:0031% → 41%
WYODrive 11FG10 plays · 59 yds · 3:1339% → 44%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+8
38.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 8 yds to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, encroachment ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
41.5%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Max McDonaldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12DOWNS17 plays · 44 yds · 6:2859% → 58%
WYODrive 13PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14FG10 plays · 69 yds · 4:5757% → 72%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+33
42.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 33 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15FUMBLE3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
CSUDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0075% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17TD7 plays · 69 yds · 2:4835% → 81%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
34.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Drew Van Maanen for 17 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, encroachment ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+31
39.1%
Kellen Overstreet run for 16 yds to the WYOMING 36 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q4 4:21
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+4
70.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 27 , Austin Conway returns for 4 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19END OF GAME9 plays · 17 yds · 0:1384% → 88%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:21
Kellen Overstreet run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+37.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:38
Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds to the Wyom 32
+13
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+12.5