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UNLV

UNLV 26 at Fresno State 16

FRES
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-2.2FRES 86.1%Daniel Gutierrez 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 9 · Q2 10:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:18 · Daniel Gutierrez 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior+32.1Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:06: Daniel Gutierrez 23 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +4.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:31: Johnny Stanton run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +18.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:38: Jordan Mims run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +10.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +25.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:00: Daniel Gutierrez 25 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +2.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 6UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 5:58UNLV 4th & 6 at FRES 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:58FRES 4th & 4 at UNLV 16, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UNLV 4th & 7 at FRES 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:18UNLV 4th & 5 at FRES 10, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:32FRES 4th & 14 at UNLV 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:06UNLV 4th & 6 at FRES 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UNLV 4th & 2 at FRES 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:25FRES 4th & 1 at UNLV 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−4.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:38UNLV 4th & 9 at FRES 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:42UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:41FRES 4th & 2 at UNLV 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−6.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:00UNLV 4th & 8 at FRES 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:56FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 38, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:01UNLV 4th & 16 at FRES 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:05FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 47, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:50FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:31UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:38FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:53UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 5:1092% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
92.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+11
92.2%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.2%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
92.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 6 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
92.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
92.2%
Da'Mari Scott run for 8 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
92.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+12
92.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 12 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
92.2%
Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+1
92.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the UNLV 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+13
92.2%
Jordan Mims run for 13 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
92.2%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.6%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:449% → 10%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
91.2%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 9 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+21
91.1%
Darren Woods Jr. run for 21 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
91.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+8
91.0%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Kendal Keys for 8 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
91.0%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
91.0%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+9
91.1%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 9 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-5
91.2%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Lexington Thomas) to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
90.0%
Daniel Gutierrez 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:5390% → 90%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+31
90.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 31 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
90.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 4 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+9
90.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 9 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
90.4%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
90.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+5
90.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 5 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
90.2%
Jimmy Camacho 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4FG
19 plays · 65 yds · 7:4010% → 14%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
89.9%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
89.8%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Devonte Boyd) to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
89.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
89.9%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Kendal Keys for 10 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
89.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
89.5%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Tim Holt for 3 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
89.4%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+9
89.5%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 9 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
88.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+1
88.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-1
88.4%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+8
88.9%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 8 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
88.0%
Drew Tejchman run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+6
88.0%
STANTON, Johnny pass incomplete to TEJCHMAN, Drew, PENALTY FS pass interference (HUGHES, Juju) 6 yards to the FS15, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
88.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-1
88.0%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Drew Tejchman for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
88.3%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
86.1%
Daniel Gutierrez 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:3987% → 85%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
86.5%
Da'Mari Scott run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
86.9%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 8 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+6
87.1%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 6 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
87.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 4 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-8
87.1%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Jameer Outsey for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
85.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
85.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6FG
20 plays · 74 yds · 6:3615% → 23%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
85.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 7 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
84.5%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 8 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.6%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Drew TejchmanSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
84.8%
Xzaviar Campbell run for no gain to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
85.4%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Kendal Keys for 11 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.7%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+10
83.7%
STANTON, Johnny pass incomplete to BOYD, Devonte, PENALTY FS holding (JONES, Kwami) 10 yards to the FS41, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
83.5%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+19
83.6%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 19 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
82.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+9
82.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
82.9%
Johnny Stanton run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.9%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
79.9%
STANTON, Johnny pass incomplete to BOYD, Devonte, PENALTY FS pass interference (BRYANT, Jaron) 1 yards to the FS2, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
79.7%
Xzaviar Campbell run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
79.6%
Johnny Stanton run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 6 Johnny Stanton fumbled, forced by Robert Stanley, recovered by UNLV Johnny StantonSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.5%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
76.2%
Daniel Gutierrez 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
77.5%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2922% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.0%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 15 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
76.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
75.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
75.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Trevor Kanteman for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
75.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+4
77.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
75.2%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+7
75.0%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 7 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
75.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+7
75.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
56.4%
Johnny Stanton run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
15 plays · 89 yds · 5:4761% → 77%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
61.4%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
61.5%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+6
60.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
61.7%
Josh Hokit run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
63.9%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
62.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 8 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+12
64.9%
Jordan Mims run for 12 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
65.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 8 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
65.7%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
65.5%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
64.0%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
67.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 18 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
67.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 10 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.2%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.5%
Johnny Stanton run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
68.1%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
69.6%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
50
+1
65.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
65.7%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr., broken up by James BaileySimilar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
67.2%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+4
70.0%
Riley Erickson punt for 30 yds , KeeSean Johnson returns for 4 yds to the FrsSt 23 KeeSean Johnson fumbled, recovered by UNLV Darren PalmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:4738% → 62%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
62.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
62.0%
Johnny Stanton run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+12
63.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0045% → 50%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.8%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
44.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
42.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 21 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
49.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 9 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-10
50.4%
McMARYION, M. pass complete to TANGIPA, David for 24 yards to the UNLV20 (SCISSUM, Chaunc), PENALTY FS holding (RIDDERING, Kyle) 10 yards to the FS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+6
46.6%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
49.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson Blake Cusick punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
35.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 16 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
32.4%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
32.9%
Johnny Stanton run for 3 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
32.8%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
35.3%
Riley Erickson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:3135% → 33%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
35.0%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+8
36.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
36.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
39.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for no gain to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
39.3%
Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
41.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Roger MannSimilar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-36
33.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 36 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3480% → 88%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
19.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+11
19.7%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 11 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
19.7%
Johnny Stanton run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
19.7%
Kurt Palandech run for no gain to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
14.4%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
11.8%
Daniel Gutierrez 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
12.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Kyle RidderingSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
12.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Dejonte O'NealSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
10.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:1191% → 90%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
9.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-1
8.5%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-2
8.8%
Johnny Stanton run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 11
OPP 39
-5
9.4%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 16
OPP 44
+10
10.0%
Riley Erickson punt for 25 yds UNLV Penalty, kick catching interference (Trevor Kanteman) to the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
5.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 10 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
5.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
5.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
5.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
4.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 14
OWN 49
-1
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:53
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-25.8
TD · Q3 9:31
Johnny Stanton run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q3 3:38
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com