2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreUNM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:57 · Tim Zaleski punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:37: Josh Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +4.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:07: Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Fort for 4 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +6.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:32: Austin Fort run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) NEW MEXICO Penalty, encroachment ( Yards) declined — WYO win probability +13.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:21: Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 14 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Tevaka Tuioti) to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST down — WYO win probability +3.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:25: Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Fort for 11 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 9UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 14:47WYO 4th & 21 at WYO 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.2%average punt
- Q1 12:52UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snapGo for it41.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%average punt
- Q1 10:47WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it58.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.3%average punt
- Q1 8:54UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snapGo for it41.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.8%average punt
- Q1 5:57WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snapGo for it57.5%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.8%average punt
- Q2 12:07UNM 4th & 10 at midfield, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snapGo for it28.9%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.2%average punt
- Q2 9:47WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 29, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 72.9% before the snapGo for it74.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.0%−2.2average punt
- Q2 7:32UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it14.6%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%average punt
- Q3 15:00UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 38, down 42Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:14WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 15, up 42Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:39WYO 4th & 1 at midfield, up 42Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:22UNM 4th & 7 at WYO 28, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−<0.137% to convertField goal0.7%60% to makePunt0.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 14:08UNM 4th & 24 at WYO 25, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.17% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%66% to makePunt-0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:08WYO 4th & 3 at UNM 44, up 39Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%52% to convertField goal99.6%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:32UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 24, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:25WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 49, up 39Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:07WYO 4th & 6 at UNM 8, up 39Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goal99.9%90% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 2:37WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.1%97% to makeGo for two62.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:07WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.5%97% to makeGo for two71.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:32WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:25WYO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:46WYO Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:58WYO Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT7 plays · -11 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
57.4%
ALLEN, Josh pass complete to PRICE, James for 75 yards to the NM0, clock 14:47, PENALTY WY ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WY20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
57.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the Wyom 26Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
57.4%
ALLEN, Josh rush for 8 yards to the WY34 (BOYCE, Rayshawn), PENALTY WY holding 10 yards to the WY16, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
57.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 4 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+3
57.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 3 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+2
57.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 52 yds , Austin Conway returns for 2 yds to the Wyom 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+21
57.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 21 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, encroachment ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
WYODrive 5PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 1:0458% → 57%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+12
57.5%
Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 12 yds to the Wyom 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6INT5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
WYODrive 7TD2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2659% → 63%
UNMDrive 8INT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3738% → 37%
WYODrive 9TD7 plays · 29 yds · 2:0365% → 71%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
64.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 11 yds to the NMex 18 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
64.2%
ALLEN, Josh pass incomplete to CONWAY, Austin, PENALTY NM holding 4 yards to the NM4, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Fort for 4 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
68.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 6 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
67.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
50
0
68.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Delane Hart-Johnson, broken up by Robert PriesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 9:47
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
70.8%
Tim Zaleski punt for 38 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for no gain to the NMex 16 Chris Davis Jr. fumbled, recovered by Wyom Braden SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12TD4 plays · 16 yds · 0:3674% → 88%
UNMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5689% → 96%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
88.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 14 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Tevaka Tuioti) to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+31
89.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 31 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+9
88.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to Milo Hall for 9 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Fort for 11 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
96.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted Andrew Wingard return for 12 yds to the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD2 plays · 30 yds · 0:2396% → 97%
UNMDrive 17INT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
97.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Patrick Reed for 8 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 3 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
97.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Romell Jordan for 1 yd to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-15
97.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted Andrew Wingard return for no gain to the NMex 40 NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NMex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD1 play · 38 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
97.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 38 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19END OF HALF5 plays · 7 yds · 0:462% → 2%
Q2 0:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
98.5%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Carl Granderson and Kevin Prosser for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:14
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+5
98.7%
Tim Zaleski punt for 39 yds , Romell Jordan returns for 5 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22INT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q3 9:47
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Tyler Hall return for no gain to the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:39
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+18
99.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 18 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+10
99.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to Josh Harshman for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 1
50
0
99.2%
Tim Zaleski punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Romell Jordan at the NMex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24FG17 plays · 59 yds · 7:140% → 0%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.6%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
99.6%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Tyrone Owens, broken up by Jalen OrtizSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
99.5%
McQUARLEY, R. rush for 6 yards to the WY5 (WILSON, Logan;HALLIBURTON, A.), PENALTY NM illegal formation 5 yards to the WY16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 12
-13
99.9%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Taniela Lolohea for a loss of 13 yards to the Wyom 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 8:32
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wyom 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 27PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:25
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 36 yds , Romell Jordan returns for no gain to the NMex 12 Romell Jordan fumbled, recovered by Wyom Tyree Mayfield , return for 3 yds to the NMex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 28DOWNS4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 29END OF GAME3 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:32
Austin Fort run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) NEW MEXICO Penalty, encroachment ( Yards) declined
+13.3
TD · Q2 3:25
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Fort for 11 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 12:07
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Fort for 4 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+6.7