Try the model
AF

Air Force 45 at Colorado State 28

CSU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 25 , Ronald Cleveland returns for 6 yds to the AFA 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Home team on offense−21.7Pregame prior+7.2Score differential−11.1Garbage-time factor−8.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:45: Taven Birdow run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +6.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:59: Jacob Stafford run for 53 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +10.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:45: Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Shaquille Vereen return for 30 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +8.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:45: AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8 — AF win probability +11.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:53: Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 56 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — CSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:45AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.4%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q3 14:56CSU 4th & 1 at AF 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−1.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−7.9
    average punt
  3. Q3 0:51AF 4th & 3 at CSU 3, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%−2.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−14.6
    average punt
  4. Q4 15:00CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q4 11:53CSU 4th & 7 at AF 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  6. Q4 3:12CSU 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q4 0:22AF 4th & 15 at AF 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:13AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:14CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:19CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:45AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:25CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:59AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:45AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:12AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4723% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.5%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
77.5%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
77.5%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
77.0%
Timothy McVey run for 12 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
77.0%
Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+3
77.0%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
77.0%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the ColSt 13 Timothy McVeySimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
77.0%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
77.0%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
77.0%
Jacob Stafford run for 6 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.1%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 96 yds · 0:5375% → 76%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
74.5%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
74.5%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+20
74.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 20 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
76.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 76 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.9%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
75.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 8 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
75.8%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
75.5%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
75.5%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-2
75.4%
Nolan Eriksen run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+5
75.7%
Arion Worthman pass intercepted Anthony Hawkins return for 5 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
78.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 55 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3422% → 30%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.8%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
78.0%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
77.6%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
77.2%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
76.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
76.7%
Nolan Eriksen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
50
+18
76.6%
Nolan Eriksen run for 18 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
76.0%
Jacob Stafford run for 7 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+4
75.8%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
75.8%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+14
75.8%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Kiel Robinson) to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.7%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2073% → 79%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
73.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 36 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
74.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 17 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
74.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+16
74.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 13 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Kyle Floyd) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.9%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Adam Prentice for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2622% → 33%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.0%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
76.9%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
77.1%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
77.3%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+53
67.1%
Jacob Stafford run for 53 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
60.3%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Shaquille Vereen return for 30 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
48.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10INT
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:3951% → 47%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
50.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
50.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
50.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 18 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
52.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 41Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
51.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
52.6%
Nick Stevens run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
52.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 13 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
53.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
53.3%
Nick Stevens run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
53.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-10
47.5%
DAWKINS, D. rush for 18 yards to the AF0, clock 02:06, PENALTY CSU holding (TAYLOR, J.) 10 yards to the AF28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 18
OPP 28
0
47.2%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted James Jones return for no gain to the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3258% → 60%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
42.5%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+10
42.5%
Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
42.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-1
42.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-1
40.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:0643% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
42.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+19
43.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 19 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
44.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 17 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
45.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+1
45.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Adam Prentice for 1 yd to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
44.3%
Nick Stevens run for 6 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
44.1%
Nick Stevens run for 2 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
39.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FG
19 plays · 72 yds · 9:5966% → 84%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.7%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
33.6%
Taven Birdow run for 10 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
32.9%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
32.0%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
32.2%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
31.7%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
50
+8
31.5%
Jacob Stafford run for 8 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
31.5%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
31.5%
Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+12
31.5%
Arion Worthman run for 12 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
31.1%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
31.1%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+8
31.3%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
31.1%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
16.2%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the ColSt 6Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
16.4%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
16.5%
Luke Strebel 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4520% → 19%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
20.4%
Nick Stevens sacked by Jack Flor for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 15Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+13
20.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 13 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
19.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+6
19.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 25 , Ronald Cleveland returns for 6 yds to the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:5285% → 77%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.8%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
14.6%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
15.0%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
14.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Nolan Eriksen for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+56
23.1%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 56 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 12 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
25.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 15 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
27.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
27.2%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
24.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds, downed at the AFA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
15 plays · 98 yds · 7:0980% → 99%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
19.9%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 2 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by AFA Arion WorthmanSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+5
20.1%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+8
20.7%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
19.2%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
19.3%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
19.5%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
18.9%
Taven Birdow run for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
18.1%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
17.5%
Nolan Eriksen run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Richard King) to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
17.1%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
16.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Ernest McQuade) to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+19
17.2%
Jacob Stafford run for 19 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
16.5%
Timothy McVey run for 17 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
1.1%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18INT
14 plays · 61 yds · 1:443% → 3%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Marcus WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Marcus Wilson for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
2.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
2.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 11 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
3.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Marcus WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
3.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 11 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
3.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
3.2%
Nick Stevens run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
3.6%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+4
3.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
2.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 15 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
3.1%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted, touchback. Kyle Floyd return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:5299% → 99%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
1.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 69 yds, downed at the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
0.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:45
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8
-11.4
TD · Q2 6:59
Jacob Stafford run for 53 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q4 11:53
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 56 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com