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CSU

Colorado State 27 at New Mexico 24

UNM
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2017 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:44 · Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the NMex 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior−26.0Home team on offense−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:48: Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 7 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:19: Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 14 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:17: Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:00: Tyrone Owens run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +20.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 0:24: Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +17.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:06UNM 4th & 3 at CSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:44CSU 4th & 1 at UNM 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:04CSU 4th & 19 at CSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:05UNM 4th & 3 at CSU 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:09UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:16UNM 4th & 9 at CSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:01CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:17UNM 4th & 4 at CSU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:46CSU 4th & 25 at CSU 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−3.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:44CSU 4th & 11 at UNM 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:59UNM 4th & 16 at UNM 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−5.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:49CSU 4th & 10 at UNM 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−11.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:31UNM 4th & 10 at CSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:28CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−3.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:05CSU 4th & 2 at UNM 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%−2.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−3.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:29UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 41, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:24UNM 4th & 12 at CSU 12, down 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−3.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00UNM 4th & 4 at CSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.4%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:35UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:48CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:19CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:17CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:00UNM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:24UNM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:4921% → 24%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
21.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
21.6%
Jay Griffin IV run for 6 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
22.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 22 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
22.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
23.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
23.4%
Daryl Chestnut run for no gain to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+2
23.6%
Daryl Chestnut run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:2277% → 75%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
23.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+5
23.2%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete, PENALTY NEWMEXICO offside 5 yards to the COLOST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
23.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
23.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+7
23.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
50
+1
23.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the NMex 49Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
23.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
23.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
23.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
24.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+8
24.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
25.0%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:3526% → 34%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
25.9%
Romell Jordan run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 20 Romell Jordan fumbled, recovered by NMex Romell JordanSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+21
25.8%
Daryl Chestnut run for 21 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
26.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 19 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
27.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 11 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
28.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 10 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
28.9%
Daryl Chestnut run for no gain to the ColSt 19Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-10
29.4%
Jordan, Romell rush for 8 yards to the COLOST11, PENALTY NEWMEXICO holding (Estrella, Chris) 10 yards to the COLOST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+21
28.9%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Patrick Reed for 21 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
30.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2367% → 65%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
32.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 29 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
31.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
32.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-9
33.0%
Nick Stevens sacked by Garrett Hughes for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 19
OWN 45
+5
34.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 44 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 5 yds to the NMex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5MISSED FG
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:4635% → 38%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+54
34.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 54 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
37.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
37.8%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
38.0%
Daryl Chestnut run for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
37.6%
Jason Sanders 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1063% → 71%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
37.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 17 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
36.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+26
35.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 26 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
35.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+15
35.4%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete, PENALTY NEWMEXICO pass interference (Burrell, Jalin) 15 yards to the NEWMEXICO5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
35.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the NMex 4Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
36.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
38.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Trae Moxley) to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
28.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 7 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2633% → 33%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
33.3%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 10Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
33.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 11Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
33.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Tyrone OwensSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
32.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 78 yds, downed at the ColSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 3:4268% → 79%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+30
31.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 30 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
30.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+16
32.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 16 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
30.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
30.5%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete to Gallup, Michael, PENALTY NEWMEXICO offside 5 yards to the NEWMEXICO39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
30.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
30.6%
Nick Stevens run for 2 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
30.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 21 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
21.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 14 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:5425% → 31%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
25.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Richard McQuarleySimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
50
+39
27.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
30.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
28.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Q' DrennanSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
26.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
31.1%
Jason Sanders 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5171% → 82%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
27.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 16 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+41
27.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 41 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
25.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+1
25.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
19.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5180% → 79%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
19.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
19.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
19.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
20.1%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
20.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 52 yds, downed at the NMex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:3520% → 19%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
19.8%
Jay Griffin IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 8Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+27
19.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Marcus Williams for 27 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
20.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+20
21.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 20 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
20.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
21.9%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
20.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
18.8%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Aaron MolinaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:2882% → 81%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
17.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
17.9%
Stevens, Nick pass complete to Gallup, Michael for 15 yards to the COLOST48, PENALTY COLOST holding 10 yards to the COLOST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 20
OWN 23
0
18.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 20
OWN 23
0
18.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 20
OWN 23
-5
19.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 25
OWN 18
+53
19.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3818% → 39%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+47
18.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 47 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
38.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:0969% → 69%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
30.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 17 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
27.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 5 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
27.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 7 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
26.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
26.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 47Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
27.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
30.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3331% → 27%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
31.0%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 7Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 13
OWN 7
-3
29.9%
Tevaka Tuioti run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 4 Tevaka Tuioti fumbled, recovered by NMex Tevaka TuiotiSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 16
OWN 4
0
27.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Zahneer ShulerSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 16
OWN 4
-21
26.9%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 50 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for a loss of 21 yards to the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:0272% → 79%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
27.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+22
28.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 22 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
24.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 18 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
23.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
22.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+11
23.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 11 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-1
22.4%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
24.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
20.6%
Wyatt Bryan 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0423% → 22%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+27
22.7%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 27 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
27.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
26.9%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+6
24.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 6 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 5
OPP 41
-5
23.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
22.3%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 45 yds, downed at the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5579% → 79%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
20.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
20.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
21.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+11
20.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 11 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
25.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35 Richard McQuarley fumbled, forced by Shun Johnson, recovered by ColSt Jakob BuysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 5:0683% → 91%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
16.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
14.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
14.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
14.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+7
14.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 7 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
13.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+4
11.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
10.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+52
8.8%
Wyatt Bryan 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23TD
24 plays · 75 yds · 4:329% → 21%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
8.6%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 10 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
9.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 7 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
10.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
8.4%
Daryl Chestnut run for 4 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
6.8%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 46Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
6.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
6.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Aaron MolinaSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
5.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+16
5.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 16 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
7.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
8.9%
Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Jakob Buys for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+16
6.4%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 16 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+15
6.0%
Tuioti, Tevaka pass incomplete to Reed, Patrick, PENALTY COLOST pass interference (Hawkins, Anthony) 15 yards to the COLOST4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEWMEXICO.Similar
Q4 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
6.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+13
5.9%
Tuioti, Tevaka pass incomplete to Owens, Tyrone, PENALTY COLOST pass interference 13 yards to the COLOST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEWMEXICO.Similar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
6.1%
Tuioti, Tevaka pass incomplete, PENALTY NEWMEXICO holding 10 yards to the COLOST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
-15
5.2%
Tuioti, Tevaka pass incomplete, PENALTY NEWMEXICO tripping (McQuarley, Richard) 15 yards to the COLOST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 31
+16
5.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 16 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
4.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 3 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
21.4%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:1420% → 17%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
20.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 6 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
26.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Tyrone OwensSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
19.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Q' DrennanSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-15
17.2%
Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Evan Colorito for a loss of 15 yards to the NMex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:00
Tyrone Owens run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+20.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.2
TD · Q4 0:24
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com