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AF

Air Force 45 at Nevada 42

NEV
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2017 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Luke Strebel 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:02: Ty Gangi run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ty Gangi pass to Wyatt Demps for Two-Point Conversion) — NEV win probability +18.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:39: Kelton Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +26.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:43: Arion Worthman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +26.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:57: Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 31 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +36.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Luke Strebel 30 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +38.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:19AF 4th & 8 at NEV 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:09NEV 4th & 10 at AF 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:09AF 4th & 12 at AF 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:25NEV 4th & 10 at AF 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:03NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:38NEV 4th & 1 at AF 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−2.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−8.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:56AF 4th & 3 at NEV 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−2.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:09AF 4th & 1 at NEV 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−5.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−20.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:08NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:00AF 4th & 9 at NEV 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−17.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−33.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:19NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:46AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:05NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:38AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:18AF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:09AF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:02NEV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    43.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:09AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:39NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:43AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:57NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4131% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+23
30.6%
Kelton Moore run for 23 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
30.6%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+11
30.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brandon Scott for 11 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
30.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+9
30.6%
Kelton Moore run for 9 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
30.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
30.6%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
33.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
33.4%
Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
33.3%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+14
33.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for 14 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
33.1%
Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-4
33.1%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 48 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by AFA Arion WorthmanSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+5
33.4%
Nolan Eriksen run for 5 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
33.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 46 yds, downed at the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+42
35.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 42 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
36.5%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
36.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Andrew CelisSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+6
36.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-15
36.1%
MOORE, Kelton rush for 4 yards to the AF44 (WILLS, Lakota), PENALTY NEV personal foul (DAMANHOURY, Z.) 15 yards to the NEV37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+12
35.6%
Quinton Conaway punt for 46 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 12 yds to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:5763% → 66%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
37.1%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
36.6%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
36.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 12 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
36.4%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
36.3%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
36.4%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
36.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
36.0%
Ronald Cleveland run for 13 yds to the Nevad 19 Ronald Cleveland fumbled, forced by Elijah Moody, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
35.9%
Taven Birdow run for 12 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
35.9%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.1%
Garrett Amy run for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4136% → 42%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Ja'Mel SandersSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+47
36.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 47 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
42.2%
Andrew Celis pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 28 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 2:2259% → 65%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
40.9%
Arion Worthman run for 14 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
40.6%
Nolan Eriksen run for 12 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+50
40.3%
Arion Worthman run for 50 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
38.6%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+11
39.9%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.6%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:2939% → 40%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
39.2%
Kelton Moore run for 14 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
39.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
39.6%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to CELIS, Andrew, PENALTY AF pass interference (GRIFFIN, M.) 15 yards to the AF18, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
39.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
39.6%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
39.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
39.6%
Spencer Pettit 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
39.8%
Timothy McVey run for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
39.3%
Garrett Amy run for 5 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
38.4%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-3
38.8%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 39 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by Travis Wilson,Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-5
40.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
41.0%
Charlie Scott punt for 20 yds, downed at the Nevad 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:2142% → 46%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
41.8%
Russell Booze run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
41.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+32
40.8%
Kelton Moore run for 32 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
42.5%
Andrew Celis pass incomplete to Ty GangiSimilar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
42.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
42.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton MooreSimilar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
45.6%
Spencer Pettit 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:0757% → 65%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.5%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
42.5%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
42.7%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
42.6%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
41.2%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
50
+13
41.2%
Jacob Stafford run for 13 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
41.2%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
40.0%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+6
46.7%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
45.3%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
45.3%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+10
46.8%
Garrett Amy run for 10 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
45.3%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
45.3%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
35.0%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:0865% → 75%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
35.5%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
35.6%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
35.0%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
25.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for 43 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
27.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 6 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
29.3%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
29.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Marquis GriffinSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
29.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Andrew CelisSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+1
27.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 1 yd to the Nevad 48Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 9
OWN 48
-5
27.0%
NEVADA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
26.1%
Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
27.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-1
27.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
26.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for 19 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
24.6%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-5
24.7%
Garrett Amy run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-5
26.3%
Arion Worthman sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 37 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by Nevad Austin Paulhus , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3631% → 50%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
30.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Marquis GriffinSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
30.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 9 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
30.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+2
29.4%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
32.0%
Isaiah Hamilton run for 13 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
50.1%
Ty Gangi run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ty Gangi pass to Wyatt Demps for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
21 plays · 82 yds · 9:4758% → 76%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
42.3%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+6
41.0%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Andrew Smith for 6 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
41.5%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
40.8%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+3
40.1%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
40.0%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 2
50
+5
38.6%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
38.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
38.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+1
39.3%
Nolan Eriksen run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+4
41.0%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
37.9%
Arion Worthman sacked by Chris Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+22
39.2%
Timothy McVey run for 22 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
37.6%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
37.6%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
38.9%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
37.6%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.6%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.8%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 2:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.4%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
29.5%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
31.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for no gain to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
29.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
27.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4675% → 77%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
25.4%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+9
24.4%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
22.9%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
22.7%
Arion Worthman pass intercepted Ahki Muhammad return for 12 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:4030% → 59%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
29.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
28.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 14 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
31.2%
Ty Gangi run for 22 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
33.0%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+16
33.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 16 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.0%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.1%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5153% → 86%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
47.5%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
44.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for no gain to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
46.4%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
45.1%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+14
47.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 14 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
42.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 12 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
42.4%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 16 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
40.3%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
40.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Timothy McVey for 7 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
42.2%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
40.3%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.3%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:4122% → 63%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
21.6%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+9
21.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 9 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
22.0%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
21.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+17
19.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 17 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
24.8%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY AF pass interference (GRIFFIN, M.) 15 yards to the AF39, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
26.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 8 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+31
63.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 31 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22FG
18 plays · 62 yds · 3:5751% → 94%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
48.7%
Timothy McVey run for 38 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
42.8%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+7
41.2%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
39.8%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
37.7%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+1
36.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+7
36.7%
Jacob Stafford run for 7 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
34.5%
Jacob Stafford run for 5 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-12
36.3%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the Nevad 6 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Jake Barnhorst) to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 17
OPP 21
+7
38.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 7 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+1
39.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 1 yd to the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
5.6%
Luke Strebel 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Luke Strebel 30 yd FG GOOD
-38.3
TD · Q4 3:57
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 31 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
+36.5
TD · Q4 11:39
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
+26.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com