Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 0 at Fresno State 38

FRES
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:20 · Romell Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+25.4Score differential+16.8Garbage-time factor+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:30: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 70 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +4.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:41: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +5.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:26: Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +13.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:03: Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15 — FRES win probability +5.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:28: Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15 — FRES win probability +5.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 14:55UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:48FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:13UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:21FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:14UNM 4th & 3 at FRES 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:23UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:01UNM 4th & 8 at FRES 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:03FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:21UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 38, down 21
    Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:04FRES 4th & 5 at UNM 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:32FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:20UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:35UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 46, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 26, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:08UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 41, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:40FRES 4th & 3 at UNM 34, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:29UNM 4th & 3 at FRES 3, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:30FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:41FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:26FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:35FRES Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:05FRES Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
48.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
48.3%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-3
48.3%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
48.3%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 62 yds, downed at the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
48.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+6
48.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+1
48.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 1 yd to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
48.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
48.9%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 28 Tyrone Owens fumbled, recovered by NMex Tyrone OwensSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+2
49.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+7
49.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Daryl Chestnut for 7 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
49.1%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
49.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
49.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 7 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
49.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Derrion GrimSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
49.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:0451% → 51%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
49.3%
Romell Jordan run for no gain to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+36
49.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 36 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
48.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
48.5%
Daryl Chestnut run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
48.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
49.5%
Jason Sanders 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:4450% → 55%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
50.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+70
54.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 70 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.3%
Romell Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
54.0%
Romell Jordan run for 9 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
54.0%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
54.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
54.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Zahneer Shuler for 6 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
54.1%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:4856% → 63%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+75
55.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 75 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
63.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:3539% → 39%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
60.8%
Daryl Chestnut run for 5 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+14
60.9%
Daryl Chestnut run for 14 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
60.7%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
60.6%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Daryl ChestnutSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
60.7%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
61.3%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 2:2564% → 80%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-13
64.2%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Jake Rothschiller for a loss of 13 yards to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 23
OWN 5
+6
63.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 6 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+57
63.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 57 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
65.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 28 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:2522% → 20%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Romell Jordan for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
77.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.8%
Tevaka Tuioti run for no gain to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+17
77.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Zahneer Shuler for 17 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
79.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
79.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Daryl Chestnut, broken up by Kwami JonesSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
80.1%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
85.3%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
85.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by D'Angelo RossSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+3
84.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
83.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0818% → 17%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
82.3%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
83.8%
Jay Griffin IV run for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+4
83.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
83.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
88.5%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+27
88.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 27 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
88.9%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
88.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 8 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
88.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 9 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
88.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
88.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the NMex 36 Ronnie Rivers fumbled, forced by Rhashaun Epting, recovered by NMex Bijon ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2213% → 8%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
86.7%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Kwami Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
87.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Romell JordanSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-4
87.6%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 32 Lamar Jordan fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+1
92.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 46 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 1 yd to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
91.7%
Marcus McMaryion run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.1%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-15
90.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
90.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+15
89.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kimmie Carson) to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
90.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
90.1%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
90.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
89.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds, downed at the NMex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
89.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
89.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
89.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
50
0
89.0%
Tevaka Tuioti run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
50
+5
89.2%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 5 yds Jay Griffin IV fumbled, forced by James Bailey, recovered by FrsSt Mike Bell , return for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:3193% → 94%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
93.3%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
93.3%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
93.3%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
93.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 29 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, IB (-10 Yards) to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
93.4%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
93.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
93.9%
Jimmy Camacho 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20INT
6 plays · 50 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
94.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 23 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
93.9%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
93.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 12 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
93.2%
Daryl Chestnut run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+18
93.0%
Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted Mike Bell return for 18 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0996% → 97%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
95.8%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
95.8%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
96.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Da'Mari Scott, broken up by Jermane ConyersSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
96.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
95.7%
Jay Griffin IV run for 3 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+5
95.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Romell Jordan for 5 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-3
95.4%
Romell Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 32 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 22 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 2 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-5
99.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (Tevaka Tuioti) to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 13
OPP 0
0
99.4%
TUIOTI, Tekava pass incomplete to REED, Patrick (BRYANT, Jaron), PENALTY NM IR off-setting, PENALTY FS pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+2
99.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 2 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IV, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 11
OPP 0
0
99.3%
PENALTY FS personal foul off-setting, PENALTY NM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:04100% → 100%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.6%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
99.6%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 31 yds, downed at the NMex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.7%
Daryl Chestnut run for 4 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+8
99.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
99.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
Jay Griffin IV run for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IVSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
99.7%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
99.8%
Jordan Mims run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
99.8%
Jordan Mims run for 24 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.8%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
99.8%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the NMex 34Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+22
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 22 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Josh Hokit run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28DOWNS
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 9 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
50
+44
99.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 44 yds to the FrsSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.9%
Kentrail Moran run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 4 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Zahneer ShulerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
100.0%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4 Jordan Mims fumbled, forced by Johnny Williams, recovered by FrsSt Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+1
100.0%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+10
100.0%
Josh Hokit run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.9%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
99.9%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+16
99.9%
Josh Hokit run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.9%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:26
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
+13.9
TD · Q1 0:41
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
+5.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 4:28
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 15
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com