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NEV

Nevada 42 at Colorado State 44

CSU
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:13 · Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Josh Watson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 183Pregame prior+2.6Home team on offense+6.0Garbage-time factor+0.5Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:50: Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +11.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:04: Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 65 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +15.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:13: Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 55 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +21.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:57: Dalyn Dawkins run for 59 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 12:08: Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 17 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan PAT MISSED) — CSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:34NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:25NEV 4th & 7 at CSU 24, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:30NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:45CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:50CSU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:42CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:04CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:51NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:52CSU 4th & 5 at NEV 33, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:48NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:25NEV 4th & 1 at CSU 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−2.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−13.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:33NEV 4th & 1 at CSU 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.7
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−19.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:13CSU 4th & 7 at NEV 12, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−22.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:13NEV 4th & 11 at CSU 36, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.3 ptsWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%−6.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−9.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:34CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:56CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:54NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:12NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:25CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:17NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:36CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:50NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:04NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:13NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:57CSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:08CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2695% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.3%
Detrich Clark run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
95.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 5 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
95.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
95.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 56 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
95.1%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
95.1%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY CSU personal foul (SWEET, J.) 9 yards to the NEV37, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
95.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 7 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
95.0%
Blake Wright run for 5 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
95.0%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
95.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Kelton Moore, broken up by Max McDonaldSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
95.1%
Ty Gangi punt for 20 yds, downed at the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:5595% → 95%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.9%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+38
94.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 38 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
94.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 20 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
94.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
95.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 7 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 6:575% → 7%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.9%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 23Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
94.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+10
94.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 10 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
94.9%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
94.9%
Blake Wright run for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+6
94.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Blake Wright for 6 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
94.9%
Blake Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
94.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Blake WrightSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+20
94.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 20 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
94.8%
Russell Booze run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+14
94.8%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY CSU personal foul (JOHNSON, S.) 14 yards to the CSU23, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
94.8%
Blake Wright run for 1 yd to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+18
94.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 18 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
94.8%
Blake Wright run for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 10Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
94.8%
Blake Wright run for 5 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trevion Armstrong for 5 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
93.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+21
93.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 21 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
93.7%
Detrich Clark run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+12
93.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 12 yds Detrich Clark fumbled, forced by Ahki Muhammad, recovered by Nevad Asauni Rufus , return for 11 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
91.0%
McLane Mannix 57 Yd pass from Kelton Moore (Spencer Pettit Kick)Similar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
91.3%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (McLane Mannix) to the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:4192% → 93%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
91.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+3
91.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+29
91.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 29 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
91.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
91.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+8
91.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
91.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
91.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:088% → 13%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.2%
Kelton Moore run for 11 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
92.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 5 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+20
91.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 20 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
91.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Blake Wright for 12 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
91.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 6 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-3
91.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
91.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for no gain to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+23
92.0%
Cristian Solano pass complete to Reagan Roberson for 23 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.8%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
86.6%
PETTIT, Spencer kick attempt failed (blocked) (blocked by HAWKINS, Anthon), PENALTY CSU offside defense 2 yards to the CSU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4189% → 92%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
89.2%
STEVENS, N. pass incomplete to DAWKINS, D., QB hurry by CHOUDJA, P., PENALTY CSU holding (GOLDITCH, Z.) 10 yards to the CSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+30
89.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 30 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
89.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
89.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+10
89.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 10 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
90.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+26
90.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 26 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
90.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
91.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 14 yds for a TD NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
91.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 12 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
90.7%
Ty Gangi run for 8 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
90.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange, broken up by Anthony HawkinsSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
90.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Trevion Armstrong, broken up by Kevin Nutt Jr.Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
90.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3891% → 90%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
90.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 5 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
91.4%
Nick Stevens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-1
91.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 39 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
90.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds, downed at the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
90.9%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
89.5%
Blake Wright run for 1 yd to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
89.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
90.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+11
90.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 44 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for 11 yds to the ColSt 22 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ColSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 89%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
90.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
90.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+2
90.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 6
50
0
89.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nevad 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 2:2611% → 25%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
88.9%
Isaiah Hamilton run for 2 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+4
89.1%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+70
89.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 70 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
86.3%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Ziad Damanhoury) to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+18
86.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 18 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Shun JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Daiyan Henley for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
82.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Trae Moxley) to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
81.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
81.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
80.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 15
OWN 38
+47
79.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 62 yds for a touchback COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
63.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 65 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
67.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 9 yds to the ColSt 40 COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal block (Michael Gallup) to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
66.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
64.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton Fackrell, broken up by Asauni RufusSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
64.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4040% → 38%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
60.5%
Ty Gangi run for 4 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
59.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
60.8%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Justin SweetSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+29
62.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 38 , Olabisi Johnson returns for 29 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3768% → 70%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
67.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+2
67.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+2
67.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
69.7%
Wyatt Bryan 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:3035% → 56%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
64.8%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY CSU personal foul (JOHNSON, S.) 13 yards to the NEV45, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
63.0%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+4
65.3%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+55
43.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 55 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:0945% → 66%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
45.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 18 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
46.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+59
65.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 59 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
57.9%
Isaiah Hamilton run for 6 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
56.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
57.6%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
59.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:0861% → 82%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
60.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
59.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+10
59.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 10 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
62.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+17
63.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 17 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
64.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Colby Meeks) to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
62.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Nephi SewellSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+26
60.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 26 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
67.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 12 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.0%
Team run for no gain to the Nevad 17 Team fumbled, recovered by ColSt Nick StevensSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
81.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 17 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25MISSED FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:3525% → 32%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
75.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 26 yds to the COLOST 49 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
70.9%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
70.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
71.1%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
70.8%
Ty Gangi sacked by Livingston Paogofie for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+17
73.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 17 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
70.9%
Isaiah Hamilton run for no gain to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
73.1%
Ty Gangi run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
69.2%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
69.2%
Ty Gangi run for 4 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
70.9%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+35
68.4%
Spencer Pettit 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26MISSED FG
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:2078% → 81%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
78.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 33 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
81.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 19 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
83.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
83.1%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
83.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
81.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Elijah MoodySimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
80.8%
Wyatt Bryan 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
73.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 21 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
69.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 24 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
63.6%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
66.3%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
68.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Andrew CelisSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
72.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Josh WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0890% → 88%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
89.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-1
89.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-1
88.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:13
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 55 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q3 1:57
Dalyn Dawkins run for 59 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+19.3
TD · Q3 9:04
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 65 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
-15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com