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BOIS

Boise State 31 at San Diego State 14

SDSU
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:15 · Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds, downed at the BoiSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense−4.2Score differential−2.2Pregame prior+13.1Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:11: Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +16.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:55: Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 16 — BOIS win probability +11.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:11: Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean Modster — BOIS win probability +8.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:15: Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 89 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:52: Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +11.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:20BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:19SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:59BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:17SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:15SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00BOIS 4th & 3 at SDSU 36, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−1.4
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:21SDSU 4th & 10 at BOIS 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:24SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:53BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 49, up 21
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:29SDSU 4th & 7 at BOIS 37, down 21
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:55BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 26, up 21
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:50SDSU 4th & 10 at BOIS 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:11BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:52BOIS 4th & 2 at SDSU 2, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−12.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:46SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:33SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 45, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:11BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:15SDSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:06SDSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:52BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.9%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
65.9%
Christian Chapman run for 6 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
65.9%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
65.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 42 yds, downed at the BoiSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
65.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 4 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
65.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
65.7%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
65.8%
Quinn Skillin punt for 51 yds, downed at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
65.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 21 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
65.7%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
65.7%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
65.4%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+4
65.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 34 yds , Avery Williams returns for 4 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4235% → 35%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
65.1%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
65.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 5 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
64.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+5
65.4%
Quinn Skillin punt for 46 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 5 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:2966% → 62%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
65.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
65.5%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 16Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 16
-5
65.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 11Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+2
65.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 13Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+53
61.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 40 yds , Avery Williams returns for 53 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5762% → 58%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
62.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 15 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
62.7%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+6
62.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 6 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+34
58.4%
Christian Chapman sacked by Durrant Miles for a loss of 11 yards Christian Chapman fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Kekaula Kaniho , return for 0 yards , return for 34 yds, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-1
57.6%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-3
57.4%
Christian Chapman sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
57.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds, downed at the BoiSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1346% → 48%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
53.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
53.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
53.8%
Montell Cozart run for 4 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
53.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
51.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
51.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
52.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:4353% → 46%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
52.5%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 15Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+20
52.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 20 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
52.9%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+2
52.5%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+15
52.3%
CHAPMAN, C. pass incomplete to HOLDER, Mikah (KANIHO, Kekaula), PENALTY BSU face mask 15 yards to the SDSU49, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
54.0%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
54.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+12
53.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 12 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
54.1%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
54.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Ronley LakalakaSimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
46.5%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+13
46.1%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 8 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:5856% → 74%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
44.2%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+31
44.4%
Brett Rypien run for 31 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
43.0%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
43.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Ryan Wolpin for 5 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+19
43.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 19 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
42.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 9 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-5
42.7%
MATTISON, Alex rush for 2 yards to the SDSU12 (LOMAX, Trey), PENALTY BSU illegal shift 5 yards to the SDSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-3
42.7%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+9
43.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Montell Cozart for 9 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
42.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.5%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the SDSt 3Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:4729% → 25%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.7%
Mikah Holder run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
29.4%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
28.7%
Christian Chapman run for 7 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
29.5%
Christian Chapman sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+8
25.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 8 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-5
26.5%
Christian Chapman sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
25.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
20.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
19.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 2 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
19.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
20.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. Richardson, broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
20.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0022% → 24%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
22.4%
Christian Chapman run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
22.3%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+39
22.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 39 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
25.0%
Christian Chapman run for no gain to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
24.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Kekoa NawahineSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
24.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
13.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+3
13.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
13.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
13.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 5 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
13.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
13.7%
Quinn Skillin punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
15.1%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+17
14.3%
Christian Chapman run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
15.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for no gain to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
15.6%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
15.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
14.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Nick Bawden SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
6.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
6.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 5 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
6.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+1
6.6%
Quinn Skillin punt for 44 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
21.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 89 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19FG
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1881% → 89%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
19.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+11
18.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
18.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jake Roh for 5 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
17.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
18.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+41
17.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 41 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
17.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the SDSt 2Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for no gain to the SDSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
13.6%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
10.9%
Haden Hoggarth 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:4214% → 23%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
13.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
13.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 8 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+6
13.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
13.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 12 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
14.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Juwan Washington for 19 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
15.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+7
15.7%
Christian Chapman run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+11
16.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 11 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
17.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 9 yds to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
22.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 5:0983% → 96%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
17.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
17.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
17.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jake Roh for 7 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+30
16.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 30 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
15.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+9
15.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 9 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
15.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+6
15.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
3.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 28 yds · 2:133% → 3%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
3.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+17
3.1%
Christian Chapman run for 17 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
3.3%
Christian Chapman run for 8 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
3.5%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
3.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43Similar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
3.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete, broken up by Leighton Vander EschSimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
3.4%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
3.4%
Christian Chapman run for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
2.8%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
2.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 13 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
2.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
2.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+4
2.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:11
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q3 4:15
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 89 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q4 4:52
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com