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UNLV

UNLV 30 at Air Force 34

AF
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-21.1AF 38.3%Arion Worthman run for 14 yds for aTD, (Luke Strebel KICK)AWAY 27 - HOME 7 · Q2 0:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:42 · Arion Worthman run for 14 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense−18.3Score differential−8.3Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Time remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:28: Armani Rogers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +26.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:42: Arion Worthman run for 14 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — UNLV win probability +21.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:21: Arion Worthman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — AF win probability +9.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:52: Arion Worthman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +28.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 2:14: Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +47.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:30AF 4th & 9 at UNLV 41, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:15AF 4th & 13 at AF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:16UNLV 4th & 6 at AF 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−4.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:35AF 4th & 22 at UNLV 25, down 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:37UNLV 4th & 5 at AF 10, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−9.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:42AF 4th & 2 at UNLV 14, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−11.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:48UNLV 4th & 6 at AF 39, up 20
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−1.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:00UNLV 4th & 7 at AF 17, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−10.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:02UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:21UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 1 at UNLV 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−3.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−13.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:44UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:14AF 4th & 2 at AF 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.6%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:02UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:02UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:28UNLV Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:42AF Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:02AF Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:21AF Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:52AF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:14AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5826% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.5%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.5%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 11 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
74.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
74.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+55
73.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 55 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:2374% → 72%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
73.5%
Ronald Cleveland run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
73.5%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+15
73.4%
WORTHMAN, Arion pass incomplete to BENNETT, Marcus, PENALTY UNLV pass interference (FLOWERS, Jerich) 15 yards to the AF46, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
73.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for 12 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
73.7%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
73.7%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
73.6%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+58
72.2%
Luke Strebel 58 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
71.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+14
71.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 14 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
71.8%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+9
71.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 9 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
71.8%
Armani Rogers pass intercepted Lakota Wills return for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
71.0%
Parker Wilson run for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-3
70.9%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:2630% → 39%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
69.7%
Armani Rogers run for 16 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
69.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
69.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 5 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
69.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
69.2%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+13
69.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo for 13 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
67.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
67.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+9
67.6%
Armani Rogers run for 9 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
67.4%
Armani Rogers run for 5 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.7%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0640% → 43%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
60.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
60.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Trevor Kanteman for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
60.7%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Ryan DarbySimilar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
57.2%
Evan Pantels 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 30 yds · 0:4157% → 60%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
57.4%
Arion Worthman run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
58.2%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+36
57.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 36 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
61.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+9
61.6%
Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
61.1%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive offside (Jason Fao) to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
61.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for 2 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-14
61.7%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the UNLV 10 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 22
OPP 25
0
61.6%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 22
OPP 25
0
60.6%
Garrett Amy run for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 22
OPP 25
-20
60.2%
Team run for a loss of 20 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:4538% → 40%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
62.3%
Armani Rogers run for 27 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
61.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 9 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+4
61.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 4 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
61.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 5 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
61.3%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
61.5%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
59.6%
Evan Pantels 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
52.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
53.3%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
53.9%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
54.5%
Nolan Eriksen run for 2 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
54.7%
Nolan Eriksen run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+9
54.7%
Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
55.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, intentional grounding (Geraud Sanders) to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+8
54.2%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 35 Ronald Cleveland fumbled, forced by Jocquez Kalili, recovered by UNLV Farrell Hester II , return for 8 yds to the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:1245% → 71%
Q2 5:40
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+19
55.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Kendal Keys for 19 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
54.5%
Armani Rogers run for 11 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
54.3%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
55.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
55.0%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Giovanni FauoloSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.9%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4660% → 38%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
60.1%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
60.9%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
60.9%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
61.8%
Arion Worthman run for 14 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
63.4%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+14
63.3%
Garrett Amy run for 14 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
64.5%
Nolan Eriksen run for 2 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
63.3%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
59.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for no gain to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+14
38.3%
Arion Worthman run for 14 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:0064% → 66%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
36.0%
Armani Rogers run for 9 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+47
34.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 47 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.4%
Nolan Eriksen run for 5 yds to the AFA 43 Nolan Eriksen fumbled, forced by Farrell Hester II, recovered by UNLV Jocquez KaliliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
26.1%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
26.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
26.8%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
28.1%
Riley Erickson punt for 29 yds, downed at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
30.3%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 20 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by Jericho Flowers, recovered by UNLV Brian KeyesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2476% → 83%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
24.0%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
24.4%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
24.7%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
17.0%
Evan Pantels 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:5224% → 32%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
23.6%
Nolan Eriksen run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
50
+11
24.2%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
25.7%
Nolan Eriksen run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
27.4%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
27.4%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
27.6%
Benton Washington run for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
27.6%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+5
26.7%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
28.3%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the UNLV 1Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.1%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.8%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
24.7%
Armani Rogers run for 19 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
23.2%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
23.3%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
23.8%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
25.2%
Riley Erickson punt, downed at the UNLV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:1029% → 38%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
28.8%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+4
28.8%
Parker Wilson run for 4 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
28.8%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
28.8%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
37.9%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.7%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
32.3%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
32.8%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
34.4%
Riley Erickson punt for 26 yds, downed at the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1133% → 59%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
32.9%
Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+17
34.7%
Timothy McVey run for 17 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
36.4%
Garrett Amy run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 16
OPP 36
-1
33.6%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 17
OPP 37
-7
32.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for 3 yds to the UNLV 34 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Marcus Bennett) to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 24
OPP 44
+27
32.0%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 27 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
34.2%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+13
33.3%
Garrett Amy run for 13 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
32.3%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the UNLV 8Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+2
30.3%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.5%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0056% → 52%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
43.8%
Armani Rogers sacked by Cody Gessler for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+10
47.4%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 10 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
44.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
47.9%
Riley Erickson punt for 45 yds, downed at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:0046% → 53%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
46.3%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-2
46.4%
Garrett Amy run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 17 Garrett Amy fumbled, recovered by AFA Garrett AmySimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+12
44.4%
Timothy McVey run for 12 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
47.2%
Nolan Eriksen run for 4 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
47.6%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+2
46.3%
Garrett Amy run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+9
45.4%
Jacob Stafford run for 9 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
51.1%
Parker Wilson run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+14
51.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for 14 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
52.7%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 42 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by Jocquez Kalili, recovered by UNLV Farrell Hester II , return for 15 yds to the AFA 42 Farrell Hester II fumbled, forced by Jocquez Kalili, recovered by UNLVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
30.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+21
30.1%
Armani Rogers run for 21 yds Armani Rogers fumbled, forced by Grant Ross, recovered by AFA Shaquille VereenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4040% → 90%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
40.3%
Timothy McVey run for 11 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
41.2%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
41.1%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+6
42.8%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
44.7%
Garrett Amy run for 14 yds to the AIRFORCE 42 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Ja'Mel Sanders) to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 6
OWN 48
+34
46.0%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 34 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
49.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for 17 yds to the UNLV 1 Ronald Cleveland fumbled, forced by Dalton Baker, recovered by AFA for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.2%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.1%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 1:0720% → 12%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
78.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 7 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
78.4%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
78.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 10 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
76.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Lexington ThomasSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
78.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+6
88.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 6 yds to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-1
93.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:14
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+47.2
TD · Q4 12:52
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+28.1
TD · Q2 3:28
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
-26.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com