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SDSU

San Diego State 41 at UNLV 10

UNLV
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:14 · Riley Erickson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense−27.2Pregame prior−6.5Score differential−13.2Garbage-time factor−9.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:57: Christian Chapman 14 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:13: Juwan Washington 34 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:48: Kendal Keys 6 Yd pass from Armani Rogers (Daniel Gutierrez Kick) — UNLV win probability +6.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:29: Rashaad Penny 3 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:11: Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 7:40UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:57SDSU 4th & 7 at UNLV 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:26UNLV 4th & 7 at SDSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:57UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:41SDSU 4th & 6 at UNLV 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−0.7
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:46UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 29, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:21SDSU 4th & 10 at UNLV 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:56UNLV 4th & 20 at SDSU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:23UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:28SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:08UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 11 at UNLV 36, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:14UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:05UNLV 4th & 17 at UNLV 29, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:33UNLV 4th & 2 at SDSU 17, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q2 11:57SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:13SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:48UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:29SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:11SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:40SDSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1FUMBLE
30 plays · 67 yds · 0:0575% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
24.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+14
24.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 14 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 10 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+11
24.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 11 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
24.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Mikah Holder) to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+11
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+9
24.8%
Juwan Washington run for 9 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
24.8%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+9
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 3 Rashaad Penny fumbled, recovered by UNLV Brian KeyesSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
24.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+14
24.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 14 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 10 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+11
24.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 11 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
24.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Mikah Holder) to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+11
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+9
24.8%
Juwan Washington run for 9 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
24.8%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+9
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
24.8%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 3 Rashaad Penny fumbled, recovered by UNLV Brian KeyesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
28.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 6Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 6
0
28.2%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
27.9%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 7
OWN 6
+6
27.7%
Devonte Boyd punt for 49 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 6 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 3:4672% → 71%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
27.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 10 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-8
27.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-8 Yards) to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 18
OPP 26
0
28.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad PennySimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 18
OPP 26
-6
28.4%
CHAPMAN, C. pass complete to TRUXTON, Quest for 18 yards to the UNLV8, PENALTY SDSU ineligible downfield on pass (HOUSTON, Parker) 6 yards to the UNLV32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 24
OPP 32
+20
28.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 20 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
28.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 26 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
27.7%
PENNY, Rashaad rush for 5 yards to the UNLV18 (AUSTRIE, Evan), PENALTY SDSU holding (ANDREWS, Collin) 4 yards to the UNLV27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 14
OPP 27
0
28.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad PennySimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 14
OPP 27
-5
28.5%
CHAPMAN, C. pass complete to TRUXTON, Quest for 19 yards to the UNLV8 (FLOWERS, Jerich), PENALTY SDSU ineligible downfield on pass (HOUSTON, Parker) 5 yards to the UNLV32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+20
28.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 20 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
27.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
27.7%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-1
28.0%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
29.5%
John Baron II 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:3129% → 33%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+45
30.1%
Armani Rogers run for 45 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
31.0%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 22Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+4
31.0%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
30.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
32.7%
Daniel Gutierrez 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:2569% → 74%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
31.1%
Juwan Washington run for 16 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
30.4%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
30.2%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+14
30.2%
CHAPMAN, C. pass incomplete to RICHARDSON, D., PENALTY UNLV pass interference (HOUGH, Tim) 14 yards to the UNLV33, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
29.8%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
29.9%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
30.4%
CHAPMAN, C. pass incomplete to HOLDER, Mikah, PENALTY UNLV pass interference (KALILI, Jocquez) 8 yards to the UNLV25, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
29.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 10 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
29.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
32.9%
BARON, John kickoff 65 yards to the UNLV0, touchback, PENALTY SDSU offside (CHAPMAN, C.) 5 yards to the SDSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
25.7%
Christian Chapman 14 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.5%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
26.9%
Armani Rogers sacked by Jay Henderson for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 19Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+30
26.6%
Riley Erickson punt for 45 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 30 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
19.9%
Juwan Washington 34 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:1221% → 29%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
21.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
21.3%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+54
21.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 54 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
22.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+6
22.9%
Armani Rogers run for 6 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
22.9%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
22.9%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
29.4%
Kendal Keys 6 Yd pass from Armani Rogers (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
26.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 28 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
24.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 2 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
24.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
25.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
26.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
27.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
27.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
27.2%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+6
26.7%
Riley Erickson punt for 40 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:1575% → 77%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.7%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad PennySimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
25.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 7 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
23.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
50
+15
23.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 15 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
22.9%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
22.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 4 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+15
23.3%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 15 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
22.8%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
22.8%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
23.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Robert JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
23.2%
John Baron II 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.9%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
22.9%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+14
22.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 14 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
23.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
23.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 15 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
24.3%
THOMAS, Lexingt rush for 23 yards to the SDSU31 (KELLY, Kameron), PENALTY UNLV false start (JACOBSON, Natha) 10 yards to the UNLV36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
24.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 23 yds to the SANDIEGOST 31 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-7
24.5%
Armani Rogers sacked by Dakota Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 22
OPP 43
+3
24.3%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 19
OPP 40
-1
23.5%
Armani Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 20
OPP 41
0
22.2%
Riley Erickson punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:5877% → 90%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
22.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 36 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
21.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 25 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
21.0%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+8
21.0%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
21.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.4%
Rashaad Penny 3 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
12.6%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
12.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Tim HoltSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
12.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+1
12.3%
Riley Erickson punt for 45 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 1 yd to the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
11.1%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
11.1%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+3
11.4%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 8
OWN 35
-2
11.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 41 yds , Jericho Flowers returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
11.5%
Brandon Presley run for no gain to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
11.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-12
11.4%
ROGERS, Armani pass complete to BOYD, Devonte for 10 yards to the UNLV35, PENALTY UNLV personal foul (SANDERS, J'Ondr) 12 yards to the UNLV13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 19
OWN 13
+9
11.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 9 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+11
11.3%
Riley Erickson punt for 40 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 11 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4293% → 93%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
7.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 16 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
7.0%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
7.1%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 4 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-5
6.7%
Christian Chapman sacked by Bailey Laolagi for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
7.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
9.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tim Holt for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
9.4%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
9.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 6 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.4%
Brandon Presley pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
9.1%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Ryan DunnSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
8.9%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
8.9%
Riley Erickson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quest Truxton at the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 5:2994% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
6.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+6
5.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
5.7%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
5.6%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
5.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+11
5.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
5.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 22 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
5.5%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 8Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
5.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
1.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 8 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+9
1.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 9 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
1.2%
Armani Rogers run for 7 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+1
1.2%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+2
1.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.2%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
1.2%
Armani Rogers sacked by Myles Cheatum for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
1.2%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Drew TejchmanSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
1.2%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Kendal Keys, broken up by Ron SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:4799% → 100%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
0.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+5
0.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
0.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
0.7%
Chase Jasmin run for 4 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
0.1%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
0.1%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+23
0.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 23 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
0.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 20 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
0.2%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Drew TejchmanSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
0.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 8 yds to the SDSt 17Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
0.1%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 2
OPP 17
0
0.1%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:29
Rashaad Penny 3 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)
-10.6
TD · Q2 11:57
Christian Chapman 14 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)
-7.2
TD · Q2 10:13
Juwan Washington 34 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com