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BOIS

Boise State 24 at BYU 7

BYU
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2017 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:22 · Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Leighton Vander Esch return for 36 yds to the BYU 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense−35.9Pregame prior−2.1Score differential−18.9Garbage-time factor−14.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:51: Alexander Mattison run for 12 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. INT · Q2 5:45: Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Kekoa Nawahine return for 51 yds to the BYU 22 — BYU win probability +3.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:33: Montell Cozart pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 17 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST down — BOIS win probability +8.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:36: Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 24 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:18: Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +11.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:57BYU 4th & 1 at BOIS 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:57BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:17BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:07BYU 4th & 9 at BOIS 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:59BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:49BOIS 4th & 3 at BYU 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−6.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:03BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:52BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:12BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:59BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:40BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:35BOIS 4th & 5 at BYU 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:22BYU 4th & 5 at BOIS 36, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:17BOIS 4th & 1 at BYU 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:38BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:08BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:51BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:18BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4273% → 72%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
27.5%
Robert Mahone run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
27.7%
Robert Mahone run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+9
27.9%
Montell Cozart run for 9 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
28.1%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Grant Jones return for 20 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 5:3629% → 35%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
28.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 9 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-1
29.0%
Squally Canada run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
29.3%
Ula Tolutau run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
29.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
30.1%
Ula Tolutau run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
30.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 5 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
30.5%
Ula Tolutau run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
31.2%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+14
31.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 14 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.5%
Ula Tolutau 3 Yd Run (Rhett Almond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5766% → 64%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
33.8%
Robert Mahone run for no gain to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-7
34.4%
Robert Mahone run for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 20 Robert Mahone fumbled, forced by Fred Warner, recovered by BoiSt Brett RypienSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+10
35.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 10 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+2
36.0%
Quinn Skillin punt for 54 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 2 yds to the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:3136% → 38%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
35.8%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the BYU 18Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
36.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 9 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
36.7%
Ula Tolutau run for 2 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
37.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
37.4%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-8
37.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Beau Tanner for 2 yds to the BYU 31 BYU Penalty, Illegal Block (Austin Hoyt) to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 18
OWN 21
+9
37.4%
Squally Canada run for 9 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
37.6%
Jonny Linehan punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:1663% → 67%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
37.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
37.4%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+12
38.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 12 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
38.2%
Jake Roh run for 12 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
37.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-5
38.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Eric Quevedo) to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
38.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
39.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
39.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
32.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 12 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:2936% → 38%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
36.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 2 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
36.7%
Ula Tolutau run for 7 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+4
36.5%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
37.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 24 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
40.0%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
40.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt Bushman, broken up by Gabe PerezSimilar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
39.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
37.6%
Jonny Linehan punt for 40 yds, downed at the BoiSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0164% → 62%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
35.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
36.2%
Jake Roh run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+2
37.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 2 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+3
38.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 49 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+51
41.5%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Kekoa Nawahine return for 51 yds to the BYU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4467% → 68%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
32.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 17 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
32.6%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
32.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
33.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
32.5%
Haden Hoggarth 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3834% → 33%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.0%
Ula Tolutau run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
35.4%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Emmanuel Fesili for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
33.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
32.5%
Jonny Linehan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:1967% → 77%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
33.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 22 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
31.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
30.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 8 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
30.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+6
29.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
29.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
23.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 24 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.5%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:5824% → 23%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.1%
Ula Tolutau run for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
25.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 5 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
24.7%
Tanner Mangum run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+9
24.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 9 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
25.1%
Ula Tolutau run for 1 yd to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
24.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
23.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Beau TannerSimilar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
23.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3176% → 76%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
24.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
23.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
23.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
23.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
23.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander Mattison, broken up by Merrill TaliauliSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+3
24.0%
Joel Velazquez punt for 47 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 3 yds to the BYU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0423% → 21%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
22.7%
Austin Kafentzis run for 3 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
22.7%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+13
22.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 13 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
23.7%
Riley Burt run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+6
22.4%
Austin Kafentzis run for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
21.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+9
20.7%
Jonny Linehan punt for 50 yds , Avery Williams returns for 9 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 6:3378% → 94%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
22.0%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
21.7%
Montell Cozart run for no gain to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+14
22.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 14 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
20.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
19.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
20.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Ryan Wolpin for 7 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
18.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+1
18.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
18.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 9 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
18.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 14 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
17.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 15 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
17.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
17.3%
Montell Cozart run for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
17.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
17.7%
Jake Roh run for 2 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:248% → 7%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
8.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Trey Dye for 18 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
8.3%
Mangum, Tanner pass complete to Simon, Micah for 34 yards to the BOISEST27, PENALTY BYU holding (Shoaf, Thomas) 10 yards to the BYU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+17
7.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Trey Dye for 17 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
8.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Trey DyeSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
8.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 2 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
7.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:5995% → 97%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
4.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
4.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
4.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
4.3%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+5
4.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 5 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+4
4.1%
Montell Cozart run for 4 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
3.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:075% → 3%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
4.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Neil Pau'u, broken up by Kekaula KanihoSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
4.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 11 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
5.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
4.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 6 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
5.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 10 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
4.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
4.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Neil Pau'u, broken up by Tyler HortonSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
4.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+36
3.3%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Leighton Vander Esch return for 36 yds to the BYU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:5798% → 99%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
2.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+18
1.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Handsome Tanielu) to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
1.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
1.6%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
1.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 5 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
1.0%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:252% → 1%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
2.2%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 5 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+3
1.8%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Micah Simon for 3 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
0.8%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
0.8%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Trey DyeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-2
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 24Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 13
OPP 24
-1
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:18
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-11.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:33
Montell Cozart pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 17 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST down
-8.9
TD · Q2 0:36
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 24 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com