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AF

Air Force 38 at New Mexico 56

UNM
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:57 · Charlie Scott punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense+28.8Pregame prior−0.6Score differential+11.3Garbage-time factor+8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:39: Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +13.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:25: Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 49 yds for a TD AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +18.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:31: Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +15.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:21: Romell Jordan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +15.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:25: Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +9.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 11 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:15AF 4th & 12 at AF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:51UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:27AF 4th & 2 at UNM 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−6.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:52UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:58AF 4th & 21 at AF 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−5.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:37AF 4th & 3 at UNM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:10AF 4th & 10 at UNM 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−11.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:25AF 4th & 1 at UNM 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−1.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−7.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:57AF 4th & 6 at AF 29, down 18
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:36UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 2:22UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:04AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:48UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:58AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:39AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:25UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:31UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:21UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:25UNM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:01AF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:59UNM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:07AF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:57UNM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
40.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
40.7%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
40.7%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
40.7%
WORTHMAN, Arion pass complete to BENNETT, Marcus for 18 yards to the NM43, out-of-bounds (ROSS, D'Angelo), PENALTY AF IR (LANDRUM, G.) 5 yards to the AF34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
40.7%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
40.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
41.4%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 24 Lamar Jordan fumbled,Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+5
41.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-5
41.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
41.2%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
41.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
41.8%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+5
41.8%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-4
41.9%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 49 yds, downed at the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:4943% → 51%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
42.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMex 35 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal block (Tyrone Owens) to the NMex 20Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+2
42.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 18
OWN 22
0
42.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+22
42.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Romell Jordan for 22 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
43.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 4
50
+5
43.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
43.3%
Jay Griffin IV run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
43.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+6
43.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
43.5%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+10
43.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive holding (Robert Bullard) to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
43.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+15
43.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 15 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1851% → 57%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.9%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
48.7%
Arion Worthman sacked by Alex Hart for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
49.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 17 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
48.4%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+9
47.8%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
48.8%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+6
48.8%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
48.8%
Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
47.9%
Parker Wilson run for no gain to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+17
48.8%
Timothy McVey run for 17 yds to the NMex 16 Timothy McVey fumbled, forced by Alex Hart, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
47.9%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the NMex 15Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
42.6%
Timothy McVey run for 15 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1646% → 53%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
46.4%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
46.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
53.2%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 71 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:5047% → 58%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
52.9%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
52.6%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
51.7%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
52.1%
Arion Worthman run for 32 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
50.0%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+28
42.4%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 28 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
47.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 18 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
48.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
48.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
47.6%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
46.3%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:4855% → 70%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
44.8%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
44.8%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
43.9%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.3%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+36
43.8%
Arion Worthman run for 36 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
41.7%
Taven Birdow run for 11 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
41.7%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
41.7%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+1
42.6%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the NMex 4Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+3
43.8%
Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.5%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4736% → 35%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
35.8%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Patrick Reed, broken up by Jack FlorSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
34.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
35.0%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
34.3%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
35.4%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
34.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 4 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
34.3%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 52 yds, downed at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
33.3%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
33.5%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 12
OWN 12
-9
34.3%
Arion Worthman sacked by Garrett Hughes for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 3Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 21
OWN 3
+9
35.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 55 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 9 yds to the AFA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
54.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 49 yds for a TD AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.3%
Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
46.4%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
46.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Jermane Conyers) to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
45.6%
Arion Worthman sacked by Bijon Parker for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 17
OWN 31
-6
47.6%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 21 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by Garrett Hughes, recovered by NMex Jake RothschillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:5456% → 72%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
56.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Aaron Jenkins) to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+10
55.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+10
56.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
71.7%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FG
17 plays · 59 yds · 6:2135% → 36%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.3%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
65.1%
Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
64.2%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+7
62.4%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
61.8%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
62.0%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+5
62.3%
Jacob Stafford run for 5 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
61.8%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
61.5%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-1
61.5%
Taven Birdow run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+16
69.3%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the NMex 31 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jalin Burrell) to the NMex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
64.9%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-3
64.9%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 16Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
67.4%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
63.7%
Luke Strebel 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4967% → 87%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
66.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 39 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
70.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+24
71.6%
Romell Jordan run for 24 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.7%
Romell Jordan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4887% → 96%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
86.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+4
86.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:246% → 16%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.7%
Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
93.3%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.3%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
93.3%
Taven Birdow run for 6 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+15
93.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalin Burrell) to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
92.5%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+1
92.4%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
92.9%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
92.9%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
84.0%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 21 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:5289% → 98%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
89.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+6
89.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+2
89.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
89.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+10
89.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 10 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
97.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 63 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:523% → 9%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
96.8%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 33 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
96.4%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud SandersSimilar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
96.5%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+16
96.5%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 16 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.9%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus Bennett, broken up by Bijon ParkerSimilar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
96.1%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+12
96.4%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 12 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
95.9%
Arion Worthman sacked by Cody Baker for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 17Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+17
91.5%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 17 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
98.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 65 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus Bennett, broken up by Kimmie CarsonSimilar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.1%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1899% → 99%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
98.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Romell Jordan run for no gain to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
99.0%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 71 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.4%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.4%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:25
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 49 yds for a TD AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q3 8:31
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q3 0:21
Romell Jordan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com