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BYU

BYU 24 at Utah State 40

USU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2017 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:50 · Ula Tolutau run for no gain to the UthSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense+2.3Pregame prior+3.7Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:51: Beau Hoge pass complete to Bracken El-Bakri for 26 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +6.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:30: Beau Hoge pass complete to Beau Tanner for 40 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +6.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:02: Beau Hoge pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Davis return for 30 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +6.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:11: Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 36 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +14.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:52: Kent Myers 19 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — USU win probability +9.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 8 of 13BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:32BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 14, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18USU 4th & 23 at USU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:22USU 4th & 10 at USU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:34USU 4th & 10 at USU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:12USU 4th & 1 at BYU 21, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%−1.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−5.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:39BYU 4th & 9 at USU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:48USU 4th & 4 at USU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:22USU 4th & 1 at USU 45, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:45BYU 4th & 25 at BYU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:03USU 4th & 1 at BYU 15, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%−2.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−8.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:56USU 4th & 12 at BYU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:24USU 4th & 20 at BYU 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−3.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:50BYU 4th & 4 at USU 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−2.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:14USU 4th & 2 at midfield, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:19USU 4th & 1 at BYU 26, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−2.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−9.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:23BYU 4th & 2 at USU 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−2.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−2.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:36USU 4th & 7 at USU 43, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:54BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:09USU 4th & 12 at BYU 44, up 16
    Close callWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    97.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:40USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:18BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:51BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:30BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:02USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:11USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:52USU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:00USU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2059% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.0%
Kent Myers run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
59.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
59.0%
Kent Myers run for 15 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
59.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+9
59.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 9 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
59.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 6 yds Ron'quavion Tarver fumbled, recovered by UthSt Ron'quavion Tarver , return for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
59.0%
Eltoro Allen run for 4 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
60.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Dax Raymond for 32 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
60.4%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+7
60.4%
Ula Tolutau run for 7 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+2
60.5%
Ula Tolutau run for 2 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
60.6%
Jonny Linehan punt for 47 yds, downed at the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3INT TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:5861% → 60%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
61.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Dax Raymond for 7 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
61.4%
Eltoro Allen run for 2 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+46
59.7%
Kent Myers pass intercepted for a TD Micah Hannemann return for 46 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
59.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jaren Colston-Green for 6 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
59.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Gerold Bright for 8 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
59.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-3
59.4%
Jaren Colston-Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 15
OWN 36
-8
58.9%
Kent Myers sacked by Fred Warner for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 23
OWN 28
0
58.7%
Aaron Dalton punt for 41 yds, downed at the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.7%
Beau Hoge pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
58.9%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 15
OWN 26
0
59.0%
Beau Hoge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+14
59.3%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Micah Simon for 14 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+1
58.8%
Jonny Linehan punt for 45 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
59.0%
Jordan Nathan run for 7 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
59.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Eltoro Allen, broken up by Fred WarnerSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 23
-7
58.6%
Kent Myers sacked by Corbin Kaufusi for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 16Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+2
58.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 54 yds , Tanner Jacobson returns for 2 yds to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:0442% → 49%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
58.5%
Beau Hoge run for 9 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
57.7%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 4 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
57.8%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
57.5%
Ula Tolutau run for 7 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
57.4%
Ula Tolutau run for 2 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
57.5%
Ula Tolutau run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
57.2%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
50.8%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Bracken El-Bakri for 26 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1253% → 51%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
52.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
52.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
50.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion Tarver, broken up by Troy WarnerSimilar
Q2 14:34
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
50.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:5350% → 57%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
50.3%
Ula Tolutau run for 6 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
50.1%
Beau Hoge run for 9 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
43.2%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Beau Tanner for 40 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:1345% → 44%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
45.0%
Eltoro Allen run for 1 yd to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
44.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 8 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+17
45.4%
Eltoro Allen run for 2 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
46.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Dax Raymond for 18 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
46.8%
Kent Myers run for 8 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
46.8%
Eltoro Allen run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
46.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Aaren VaughnsSimilar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+38
43.7%
Dominik Eberle 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Corbin Kaufusi TEAM return for a loss of 20 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+30
50.3%
Beau Hoge pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Davis return for 30 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 2:2350% → 51%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.9%
Ula Tolutau run for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
49.0%
Beau Hoge run for 7 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
48.5%
Ula Tolutau run for no gain to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
48.7%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 6 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
48.3%
Ula Tolutau run for 10 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
48.1%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
47.0%
Ula Tolutau run for 2 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-5
47.4%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-3
47.8%
Ula Tolutau run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
49.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 31 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for no gain to the UthSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
46.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+1
47.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 1 yd to the UthSt 15Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
46.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Zach Van LeeuwenSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
45.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
44.7%
Ula Tolutau run for 8 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
44.1%
Ula Tolutau run for 5 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
44.2%
Ula Tolutau run for 7 yds to the UthSt 36 Ula Tolutau fumbled, forced by Chase Christiansen, recovered by UthSt Derek LarsenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
46.7%
Kent Myers run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
47.9%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
46.3%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+5
45.5%
BYU Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
46.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
45.8%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 5 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-22
44.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 22 yards to the BYU 3Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 27
OWN 3
+2
47.4%
Ula Tolutau run for 2 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 25
OWN 5
0
48.2%
Jonny Linehan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:2348% → 62%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
47.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for 7 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+36
62.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 36 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.2%
Trey Dye run for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+26
53.3%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass intercepted Dallin Leavitt return for 26 yds to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3063% → 64%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
63.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
63.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Jaren Colston-GreenSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
61.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'quavion Tarver, broken up by Troy WarnerSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+32
63.5%
Dominik Eberle 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
62.2%
Ula Tolutau run for 3 yds to the BYU 21 Ula Tolutau fumbled, forced by Ian Togiai, recovered by UthSt Ja'Marcus IngramSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4867% → 69%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
67.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+4
67.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 14:44
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-4
66.1%
Kent Myers sacked by Grant Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
68.6%
Dominik Eberle 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2333% → 34%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
67.3%
Ula Tolutau run for 13 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
66.0%
Ula Tolutau run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+1
66.0%
Ula Tolutau run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
66.0%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass intercepted Jalen Davis return for 15 yds to the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0072% → 68%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
72.4%
Eltoro Allen run for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
72.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
70.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Zach Van LeeuwenSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 15
OPP 41
-5
69.7%
Kent Myers sacked by Sione Takitaki and Khyiris Tonga for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
68.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tanner Jacobson at the BYU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 0:0032% → 35%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
68.1%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+2
68.5%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+18
69.5%
Squally Canada run for 18 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
66.9%
Squally Canada run for 15 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
65.2%
Koy Detmer Jr. run for 1 yd to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
65.4%
Trey Dye run for 4 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
64.5%
Trey Dye run for 5 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
63.5%
Trey Dye run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-5
63.6%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+3
65.9%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+6
65.8%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
65.3%
Ula Tolutau run for no gain to the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
73.7%
VAUGHNS, Aaren rush for 11 yards to the BYU47 (TAUSINGA, K.), PENALTY USU holding 10 yards to the USU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
71.0%
Kent Myers run for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 20
OWN 32
0
70.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Braelon RobertsSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+18
69.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jaren Colston-Green for 18 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 2
50
0
71.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.4%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
68.7%
Austin Kafentzis run for 11 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
67.0%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
67.2%
Austin Kafentzis run for 7 yds to the BYU 41 Austin Kafentzis fumbled, forced by Mason Tobeck, recovered by UthSt Suli TamaivenaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:0979% → 89%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
78.9%
Kent Myers run for 6 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+9
79.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 9 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
79.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 3 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
79.2%
Kent Myers run for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+19
88.6%
Kent Myers 19 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:2017% → 18%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
83.4%
Ula Tolutau run for 15 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
81.9%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 39 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
-2
82.4%
Austin Kafentzis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
0
82.9%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
-1
84.3%
Bracken El-Bakri run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 19Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
82.3%
Rhett Almond 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
83.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
83.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+11
82.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 11 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
85.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 14 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
85.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
85.3%
Justen Hervey run for 4 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
84.7%
Justen Hervey run for 5 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
85.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
85.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
84.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-1
84.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 30DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
87.6%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+11
86.9%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass complete to Matt Bushman for 11 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
85.9%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
85.6%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass complete to Talon Shumway for 5 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
84.8%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
86.7%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incomplete to Matt Bushman, broken up by Suli TamaivenaSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
88.0%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incomplete to Beau TannerSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+13
88.5%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass complete to Talon Shumway for 13 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
86.4%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1392% → 93%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
92.1%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+3
91.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+4
93.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+7
93.1%
Aaron Dalton punt for 25 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 7 yds to the BYU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 32INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:206% → 2%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.0%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Dallin LeavittSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
94.2%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incomplete to Matt Bushman, broken up by Ja'Marcus IngramSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+50
97.7%
Jalen Davis 50 Yd Interception Return (Dominik Eberle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 33DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
97.6%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass complete to Matt Bushman for 12 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incomplete to Neil Pau'u, broken up by Ja'Marcus IngramSimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
97.7%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
97.8%
Koy Detmer Jr. pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 34DOWNS
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-5
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 12
OPP 44
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:11
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 36 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q4 14:52
Kent Myers 19 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+9.4
TD · Q2 13:30
Beau Hoge pass complete to Beau Tanner for 40 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com