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SDSU

San Diego State 28 at Air Force 24

AF
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-44AF 22.3%Rashaad Penny run for 53 yds for a TD,(John Baron II KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 24 · Q4 5:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:39 · Rashaad Penny run for 53 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−17.7Pregame prior−0.4Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score differential−4.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:49: Rashaad Penny run for 20 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +24.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:35: Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Arion Worthman pass to Marcus Bennett for Two-Point Conversion) — AF win probability +29.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:32: Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 28 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +31.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:16: Timothy McVey run for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +31.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:39: Rashaad Penny run for 53 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +44.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:57AF 4th & 18 at AF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:25SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:46SDSU 4th & 8 at AF 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 29, up 6
    Close callPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:05AF 4th & 2 at SDSU 27, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:50AF 4th & 2 at AF 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.2%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:06SDSU 4th & 10 at AF 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 6 at AF 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:02AF 4th & 12 at AF 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−2.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 35, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:33AF 4th & 3 at AF 37, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:34SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.8
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:32AF 4th & 9 at SDSU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−2.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 2:46AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:55SDSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:49SDSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:35AF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:32SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:16AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−1.0
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:39SDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
45.3%
Christian Chapman run for 2 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
45.3%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
45.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 44 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
45.9%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+8
45.9%
Parker Wilson run for 8 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
46.0%
Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
46.1%
Parker Wilson run for 7 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
46.1%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-3
46.1%
Malik Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-8
45.9%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 18
OWN 46
0
45.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
46.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
46.5%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
46.6%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
46.8%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
47.0%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 51 yds, downed at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:4847% → 53%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
46.9%
Parker Wilson run for 9 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
47.4%
Parker Wilson run for 4 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
47.1%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+11
47.4%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.7%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
47.6%
Parker Wilson run for 9 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+7
47.7%
Parker Wilson run for 7 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
47.8%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
48.0%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+29
53.0%
Ronald Cleveland run for 29 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
51.3%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
51.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 15 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
50.7%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+15
50.2%
Juwan Washington run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
50.0%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+1
50.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
50.2%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
51.2%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1053% → 52%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
53.4%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
53.4%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
52.9%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
52.4%
Charlie Scott punt for 54 yds, downed at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
53.0%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
53.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
53.9%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 18Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
54.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3657% → 59%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
57.4%
Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
57.4%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the SDSt 30 Arion Worthman fumbled,Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+3
56.8%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+45
58.8%
Luke Strebel 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1041% → 51%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Juwan Washington run for no gain to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.2%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
59.1%
Christian Chapman run for no gain to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
59.9%
HEICKLEN, B. punt 25 yards to the AF44, downed, PENALTY AF personal foul (COPPOLA, Santo) 15 yards to the SDSU46, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+42
57.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 42 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
56.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
56.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 1 yd to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+7
57.1%
CHAPMAN, C. pass incomplete to HOLDER, Mikah (GRIFFIN, M.), PENALTY AF pass interference (GRIFFIN, M.) 7 yards to the AF2, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
53.9%
Parker Wilson run for 7 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
54.9%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+6
53.5%
Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
54.7%
Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
55.9%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 41 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by AFA Arion WorthmanSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
54.7%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 2
OWN 44
-23
54.0%
Charlie Scott run for a loss of 23 yards to the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3251% → 47%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
49.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
49.4%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-3
50.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
52.9%
John Baron II 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
55.2%
Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
55.8%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
55.8%
Arion Worthman run for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
56.1%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
58.0%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-1
56.9%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by AFA James RastSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+2
54.5%
Charlie Scott punt for 42 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 57 yds · 0:0045% → 50%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
55.3%
Juwan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+29
55.6%
Juwan Washington run for 29 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
52.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 14 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
51.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+24
50.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 24 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
50.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-10
50.3%
Christian Chapman sacked by Mosese Fifita for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 22 Christian Chapman fumbled, recovered by AFA Danny Highland , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
57.2%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
57.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 15
OWN 17
-5
56.7%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+8
55.4%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
54.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:2144% → 72%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
56.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
54.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
53.4%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad Penny, broken up by Kyle FloydSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+12
54.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 12 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
52.7%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
52.7%
Christian Chapman run for 6 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
52.5%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
52.7%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
50.9%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+9
52.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 9 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
28.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 20 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4937% → 34%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.1%
Parker Wilson run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.8%
Parker Wilson run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
36.2%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
34.3%
Charlie Scott punt for 43 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 6 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 65%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
31.9%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
31.7%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
32.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Juwan WashingtonSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+21
34.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt blocked by Garrett Kauppila blocked by Garrett Kauppila Lesley Dalger return for 21 yds to the SDSt 4 Lesley Dalger fumbled, recovered by AFA Mosese FifitaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4443% → 72%
Q4 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
42.8%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.4%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Arion Worthman pass to Marcus Bennett for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0336% → 72%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
64.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 31 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
58.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
58.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Shaquille Vereen) to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
27.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 28 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1138% → 77%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.8%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
40.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Tyler Williams for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
39.0%
Parker Wilson run for 4 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
39.5%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
41.0%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+31
38.0%
Tyler Williams pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 31 yds to the SDSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
45.5%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
45.5%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the SDSt 20Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+1
42.9%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
45.5%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+12
76.9%
Timothy McVey run for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3734% → 78%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
66.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 22 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
22.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 53 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
34.4%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
34.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 6 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
35.0%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
37.9%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
36.2%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
32.9%
Charlie Scott punt for 59 yds, downed at the SDSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4780% → 82%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
19.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
19.9%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 7Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+4
17.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+3
18.5%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 43 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:4133% → 24%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
32.5%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+9
33.3%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
34.3%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+3
26.7%
Tyler Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
27.6%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
23.6%
Arion Worthman pass intercepted Trey Lomax return for no gain to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-1
7.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:39
Rashaad Penny run for 53 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
-44
TD · Q4 6:16
Timothy McVey run for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+31.5
TD · Q4 11:32
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 28 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
-31.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com