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UVA

Virginia 42 at Boise State 23

BOIS
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2017 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:19 · Lester Coleman punt for 35 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 40 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Michael Young) to the BoiSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−23.2Score differential−10.9Pregame prior+11.8Garbage-time factor−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:11: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 30 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +8.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:07: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 27 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +10.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:21: Jake Roh 2 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +13.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:31: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 64 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +14.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:51: Olamide Zaccheaus run for 56 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +18.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 12UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:20UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:45UVA 4th & 9 at BOIS 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:10BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:38BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:27BOIS 4th & 5 at UVA 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−1.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:19UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:57BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:42BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:08UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:56BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:29BOIS 4th & 1 at UVA 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:02UVA 4th & 6 at BOIS 43, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:53BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 13, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:20UVA 4th & 6 at BOIS 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:56BOIS 4th & 5 at UVA 41, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:16BOIS 4th & 10 at UVA 20, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:02BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:07UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:11UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:07UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:21BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:31UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:51UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:14UVA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:03BOIS Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4580% → 80%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
79.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 3 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
79.7%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+7
79.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
79.5%
Ryan Wolpin run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+27
79.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 27 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
79.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 25 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
79.4%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Roh, Jake, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Blanding, Quin) 15 yards to the VIRGINIA5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q1 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.0%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2620% → 20%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
79.7%
Daniel Hamm run for 3 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-2
79.7%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 20 Kurt Benkert fumbled, recovered by VirgSimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
79.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+70
79.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOISEST 20 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:4480% → 79%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
79.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+16
79.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 16 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
79.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+5
79.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 5 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-12
79.5%
Brett Rypien sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the BoiSt 20 BOISE ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 18
OWN 20
+17
79.3%
Quinn Skillin punt for 50 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 17 yds to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:2021% → 25%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
79.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
79.1%
Kurt Benkert run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
79.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
78.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 8 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+11
78.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 11 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
78.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
78.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5976% → 75%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
76.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
76.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+10
75.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 10 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
76.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
76.0%
CT Thomas run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+3
75.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for 3 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
75.0%
Quinn Skillin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 5:0325% → 27%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
74.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+3
73.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 3 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
74.0%
Daniel Hamm run for 9 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
72.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
72.8%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
72.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
72.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
72.1%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+1
72.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 1 yd to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+4
73.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 4 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
73.1%
Lester Coleman punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:3075% → 74%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
74.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.6%
Robert Mahone run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
75.5%
Robert Mahone run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
75.3%
Robert Mahone run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
75.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
75.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
73.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:5429% → 42%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
71.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
71.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Curtis WeaverSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+8
71.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 8 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
70.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
70.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 25 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
67.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 12 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
58.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 30 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9FUMBLE
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:2262% → 59%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
62.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 7 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
63.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
61.9%
Montell Cozart run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
62.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+1
60.5%
Cedrick Wilson run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+2
59.2%
Alec Dhaenens run for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 35 Alec Dhaenens fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Alec Dhaenens , return for 2 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:2549% → 59%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
51.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+27
40.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 27 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 0:3747% → 63%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
46.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 13 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
49.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 20 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
50.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+20
50.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 20 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
50.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
50.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (5 Yards) to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
49.6%
Rypien, Brett pass incomplete to Wilson, Cedrick, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Moore, Chris) 3 yards to the VIRGINIA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.0%
Jake Roh 2 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
54.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2146% → 61%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
53.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
39.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 64 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:5841% → 40%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
41.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 17 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
42.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
41.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 7 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
41.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick Wilson, broken up by Steven WrightSimilar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-3
41.1%
Alexander Mattison run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 13
50
-5
38.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Sean Modster) to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+13
37.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 13 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
39.5%
Quinn Skillin punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5569% → 73%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
30.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+8
30.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 8 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
28.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
27.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
26.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Daniel HammSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
27.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 35 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 40 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Michael Young) to the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1629% → 28%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
29.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
28.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Robert MahoneSimilar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
28.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
28.4%
Quinn Skillin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
9.8%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 56 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:5815% → 11%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
14.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 6 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+16
11.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 16 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
11.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake Roh, broken up by Brenton NelsonSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
11.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
11.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick Wilson, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
11.1%
Quinn Skillin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2694% → 94%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
6.3%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
6.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
5.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
5.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 43 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0610% → 8%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
9.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 9 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
9.2%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
8.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
8.0%
BOISE ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
7.6%
Joel Velazquez punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3696% → 99%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
4.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 8 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
4.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Warren CraftSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+31
3.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 31 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
3.2%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+17
3.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 17 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
2.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 12 yds to the BoiSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
2.4%
Kurt Benkert run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22INT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:351% → 0%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
0.8%
Brett Rypien sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 16
OWN 15
-5
0.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Cedrick Wilson) to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 21
OWN 10
0
0.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+35
0.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 35 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
0.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 9 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
0.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
0.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
0.4%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Brenton Nelson return for 1 yd to the Virg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:2199% → 100%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
0.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
0.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 1
50
+3
0.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.5%
Lamont Atkins run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
0.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+3
0.4%
Daniel Hamm run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
0.5%
Lester Coleman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-7
0.2%
Montell Cozart sacked by Andrew Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 17
OWN 4
+9
0.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
0.1%
Joel Velazquez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
0.3%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+3
0.3%
De'Vante Cross run for 3 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+9
0.3%
De'Vante Cross run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.2%
De'Vante Cross run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
0.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
0.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-14
0.2%
Lester Coleman punt blocked by Robert MahoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
0.1%
Montell Cozart sacked by Charles Snowden and Elliott Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+6
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+8
0.1%
Montell Cozart run for 8 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 13 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27SF
1 play · -20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by Virg Ben Hogg for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 0:520% → 2%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Montell Cozart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
0.1%
Montell Cozart run for 8 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
0.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
1.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 40 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:51
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 56 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
-18.7
TD · Q3 13:31
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 64 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
-14
TD · Q2 0:21
Jake Roh 2 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com