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IDST

Idaho State 30 at Nevada 28

NEV
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadIDST aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreIDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+26NEV 37.7%Kaymen Cureton pass complete to WyattDemps for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-PointConversion failed )AWAY 30 - HOME 28 · Q4 0:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:58 · Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 207Pregame prior+1.5Home team on offense−5.8Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:00: Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 50 yds for a TD, (Parker Johnson KICK) — IDST win probability +25.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:10: Blake Wright run for 12 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +16.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:42: Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 10 yds for a TD IDAHO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Kaymen Cureton pass to Trevion Armstrong for Two-Point Conversion) — NEV win probability +15.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:58: Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEV win probability +26.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:58: Timeout NEVADA, clock 00:58 — NEV win probability +11.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9IDST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:16NEV 4th & 5 at IDST 18, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:30IDST 4th & 10 at IDST 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:27IDST 4th & 13 at NEV 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:04IDST 4th & 7 at NEV 40, up 6
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:06NEV 4th & 3 at IDST 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:10IDST 4th & 2 at NEV 2, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−6.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00IDST 4th & 6 at IDST 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:44NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 26, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:04IDST 4th & 2 at IDST 25, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:02NEV 4th & 3 at IDST 37, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−2.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:39IDST 4th & 2 at IDST 44, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:29NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 27, down 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00IDST 4th & 1 at NEV 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−4.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−6.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:35NEV 4th & 3 at IDST 48, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.2%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:42IDST 4th & 16 at NEV 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−4.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−3.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:37NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 27, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%−1.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:22IDST 4th & 8 at IDST 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−2.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:58NEV 4th & 3 at IDST 3, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−2.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−9.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4IDST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:45IDST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:31NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:12IDST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:00IDST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:10NEV Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:42NEV Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.9%−1.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:58NEV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.0%−5.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-2
98.2%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 24 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Michael Dean at the IdaSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.2%
Kaymen Cureton run for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:292% → 2%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Ty Flanagan for no gain to the IdaSt 31Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
98.0%
Ty Flanagan run for 11 yds to the IdaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+42
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Nate Page for 42 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
98.0%
Ty Flanagan run for 9 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
98.0%
Ty Flanagan run for 2 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
98.0%
James Madison run for 1 yd to the Nevad 4Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-15
97.7%
GUELLER, Tanner pass complete to DEAN, Michael for 4 yards to the NEV0, clock 11:07, PENALTY ISU pass interference (JOHNSON, Jake) 15 yards to the NEV19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 0
OPP 19
0
97.7%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
97.7%
Parker Johnson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3INT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Brandon Scott) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-4
97.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to McLane Mannix for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 16Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+6
97.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 6 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+14
97.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to McLane Mannix for 14 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
97.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
97.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+26
97.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass intercepted Brandon Monroe return for 26 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:443% → 4%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
97.2%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Michael DeanSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
97.2%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Nate Page for 8 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+5
97.2%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 5 yds to the Nevad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
97.2%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Nate Page for 9 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
97.2%
Ty Flanagan run for 2 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
Ty Flanagan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:2397% → 97%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.7%
Kaymen Cureton run for a loss of 12 yards to the Nevad 29 Kaymen Cureton fumbled, recovered by Nevad Kaymen Cureton , return for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 22
OWN 29
+3
96.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+21
96.3%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Trevion Armstrong for 21 yds to the IdaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
96.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 24 yds to the IdaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
96.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 20Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
96.6%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Koby LoweSimilar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+2
96.5%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 18Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 5
OPP 18
0
96.5%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Trevion ArmstrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
95.6%
IDAHO ST Penalty, false start (Brian Fineanganofo) to the IdaSt 13Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+5
95.6%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 5 yds to the IdaSt 18Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
95.6%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Ty FlanaganSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
95.7%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete, broken up by Maliek BroadySimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+10
95.7%
Sean Cheney punt for 50 yds , Vosean Crumbie returns for 10 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
16 plays · 58 yds · 6:0895% → 94%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
95.2%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 4 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
95.2%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-5
95.2%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+10
95.1%
CURETON, Kaymen pass complete to MOORE, Kelton for 7 yards to the 50 yardline (JENKINS, Mario), PENALTY ISU holding (AGUIRRE, Adkin) 10 yards to the ISU47, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.3%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
95.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 11 yds to the IdaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.3%
Kaymen Cureton run for no gain to the IdaSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
94.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 13 yds to the IdaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
94.4%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to McLane Mannix for 4 yds to the IdaSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
94.4%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Trevion ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+8
94.2%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 8 yds to the IdaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.4%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+5
94.4%
CURETON, Kaymen pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY ISU holding declined, PENALTY ISU personal foul (SALUTREGUI) 5 yards to the ISU4, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
94.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 2Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.4%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to McLane Mannix for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 8FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:046% → 9%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.9%
Ty Flanagan run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+57
94.0%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 57 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
93.2%
IDAHO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
93.3%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Michael DeanSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 15
OPP 21
-2
93.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Ty Flanagan for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+4
93.6%
Tanner Gueller run for 4 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
91.5%
Parker Johnson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
92.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 43 Jaxson Kincaide fumbled, forced by Mario Jenkins, recovered by IdaSt Adkin AguirreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
90.6%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Ty Flanagan for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
90.6%
Ty Flanagan run for 1 yd to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-2
90.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Ty Flanagan for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
91.1%
Sean Cheney punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:4690% → 90%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
90.4%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
90.4%
Kelton Moore run for 6 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+29
90.1%
Kelton Moore run for 13 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST down IDAHO ST Penalty, personal foul (JonRhyeem Peoples) to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Kaymen Cureton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
91.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 49Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+4
91.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+2
89.8%
Kaymen Cureton run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:4812% → 20%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.2%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Michael Dean, broken up by Jaden SawyerSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-4
88.4%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Austin Paulhus for a loss of 4 yards to the IdaSt 39Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+16
89.1%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Hagen Graves for 16 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.0%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Michael Dean, broken up by Dameon BaberSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
88.0%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to James Madison for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+13
88.0%
James Madison run for 13 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
87.8%
James Madison run for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
87.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Tanner Conner for 6 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
80.4%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Hagen Graves for 15 yds for a TD, (Parker Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
81.6%
Kaymen Cureton sacked by Mario Jenkins for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+6
81.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+16
81.2%
Kaymen Cureton run for 16 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.2%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
82.1%
Kaymen Cureton sacked by Micah Breland for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 33 Kaymen Cureton fumbled, recovered by IdaSt Paea Moala , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 14FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 1:1024% → 33%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
75.9%
GUELLER, Tanner pass intercepted by MUHAMMAD, Ahki at the NEV1, MUHAMMAD, Ahki return to the NEV33 (DEAN, Michael), PENALTY NEV pass interference (MUHAMMAD, Ahki) 15 yards to the NEV18, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
75.8%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (9 Yards) to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
75.8%
Tanner Gueller run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
73.6%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Hagen Graves, broken up by Jaden SawyerSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 0
OPP 14
+12
73.3%
GUELLER, Tanner pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Jake (MUHAMMAD, Ahki), PENALTY NEV pass interference (MUHAMMAD, Ahki) 12 yards to the NEV2, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.0%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete, broken up by Travis WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.1%
James Madison run for no gain to the Nevad 2Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.4%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Michael DeanSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
67.3%
Parker Johnson 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
74.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
69.7%
Tanner Gueller run for 8 yds to the IdaSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
69.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to James Madison for 1 yd to the IdaSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
70.4%
IDAHO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+61
70.6%
Sean Cheney punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Vosean Crumbie at the NEVADA 20 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Ryan Mack) to the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
69.3%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+8
69.3%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
69.6%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Daiyan HenleySimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
69.3%
Kaymen Cureton run for 3 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
69.1%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-OrangeSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+1
69.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 55 yds , Michael Dean returns for 1 yd to the IdaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5939% → 67%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
61.0%
James Madison run for a loss of 2 yards to the IdaSt 18Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+28
61.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to James Madison for 28 yds to the IdaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
59.2%
Tanner Gueller run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 49Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
59.2%
Nehamiah McFarlin run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 6
50
+50
33.5%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 50 yds for a TD, (Parker Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:4235% → 56%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
35.2%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+21
35.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 21 yds to the IdaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
37.2%
Kaymen Cureton run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+15
37.0%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for a 1ST down IDAHO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brandon Monroe) to the IdaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
39.3%
Kelton Moore run for 8 yds to the IdaSt 17Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
39.6%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
39.6%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 12Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
56.4%
Blake Wright run for 12 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
47.7%
James Madison run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
47.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to James Madison for 4 yds to the IdaSt 25Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
48.4%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Tanner ConnerSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
49.1%
Sean Cheney punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
50.8%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Brandon Scott for 16 yds to the IdaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
52.5%
Kaymen Cureton run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 43Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
52.1%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 0
0
46.6%
CURETON, Kaymen pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY ISU holding off-setting, PENALTY NEV illegal touching off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+1
52.0%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 37 Kelton Moore fumbled, forced by Zach Wright, recovered by Nevad Kelton MooreSimilar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+1
51.6%
Kaymen Cureton run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 36 NEVADA Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
35.7%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Michael DeanSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
35.9%
James Madison run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
35.2%
James Madison run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 44Similar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
37.0%
Sean Cheney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Vosean Crumbie at the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
38.5%
Blake Wright run for 7 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+2
39.7%
Blake Wright run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
39.3%
Blake Wright run for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+3
38.7%
Quinton Conaway punt for 46 yds , Michael Dean returns for 3 yds to the IdaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:4475% → 77%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.7%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Tanner ConnerSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+29
25.0%
James Madison run for 29 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
21.6%
James Madison run for 1 yd to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
21.7%
James Madison run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
21.9%
James Madison run for 5 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-1
23.2%
James Madison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 3:4528% → 42%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
27.6%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
28.4%
Kelton Moore run for 8 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
29.6%
Kaymen Cureton sacked by Kody Graves for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+4
27.4%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Blake Wright for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+8
27.8%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to McLane Mannix for 8 yds to the IdaSt 48Similar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+18
23.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Kelton Moore for 18 yds to the IdaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
26.4%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 4 yds to the IdaSt 26Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
26.7%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 22Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
26.1%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
20.4%
CURETON, Kaymen pass incomplete to O'LEARY-ORANGE, PENALTY NEV ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY ISU pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
26.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
26.4%
Kelton Moore run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 10Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
42.0%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 10 yds for a TD IDAHO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Kaymen Cureton pass to Trevion Armstrong for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.5%
Tanner Gueller run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
30.2%
James Madison run for no gain to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
30.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 18 yds Michael Dean fumbled, forced by Asauni Rufus, recovered by IdaSt James Madison for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
27.5%
James Madison run for 17 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
26.5%
Nehamiah McFarlin run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-7
26.6%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Patrick Choudja and Malik Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 16
OPP 44
0
28.5%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Tanner ConnerSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
31.5%
Sean Cheney punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
23.7%
Kelton Moore run for 3 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
23.3%
Kaymen Cureton sacked by Paea Moala for 0 yards to the Nevad 23 Kaymen Cureton fumbled, recovered by Nevad Kaymen Cureton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
22.2%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to McLane Mannix for 4 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
21.6%
Quinton Conaway punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Michael Dean at the IdaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:1087% → 89%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
13.5%
James Madison run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 30Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
13.3%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Tanner Conner, broken up by Vosean CrumbieSimilar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
13.9%
Sean Cheney punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Vosean Crumbie at the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+1
10.9%
James Madison run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:1115% → 38%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
14.5%
CURETON, Kaymen pass complete to MOORE, Kelton for 5 yards to the NEV27 (HOLLAND), PENALTY NEV ineligible downfield on pass (NELSON, Jake) 6 yards to the NEV16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 16
OWN 16
-1
14.4%
Kaymen Cureton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 20 Kaymen Cureton fumbled, recovered by Nevad Kaymen CuretonSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+54
14.0%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to McLane Mannix for 54 yds to the IdaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
22.0%
IDAHO ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+3
22.0%
Kaymen Cureton run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 18Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+11
22.0%
Kelton Moore run for 11 yds to the IdaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
22.0%
Kelton Moore run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 6Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
22.0%
Kaymen Cureton run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 3Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.6%
Kaymen Cureton pass incomplete to Trevion ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.7%
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
12.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-1
12.7%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:58
Kaymen Cureton pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+26
TD · Q3 10:00
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Michael Dean for 50 yds for a TD, (Parker Johnson KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q3 7:10
Blake Wright run for 12 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
+16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com