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HOW

Howard 43 at UNLV 40

UNLV
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadHOW aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreHOW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFUMBLETDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:26 · Evan Pantels punt for 10 yds, downed at the UNLV 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 190Pregame prior+13.5Home team on offense−6.8Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:20: Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 25 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +3.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:17: Anthony Philyaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK) — HOW win probability +11.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 14:09: Anthony Philyaw run for 11 yds for a TD, (C. Newton Run For Two-point Conversion) — HOW win probability +12.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:12: Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +8.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:34: Caylin Newton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK) — HOW win probability +37.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 7HOW made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:23UNLV 4th & 11 at HOW 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:23HOW 4th & 1 at HOW 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:36UNLV 4th & 11 at HOW 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:30HOW 4th & 3 at HOW 18, up 1
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:10UNLV 4th & 8 at HOW 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:14UNLV 4th & 7 at HOW 9, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09HOW 4th & 21 at HOW 41, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00HOW 4th & 5 at HOW 30, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UNLV 4th & 18 at UNLV 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:01HOW 4th & 5 at HOW 6, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:20HOW 4th & 1 at HOW 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:07UNLV 4th & 7 at HOW 31, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:45HOW 4th & 2 at UNLV 23, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:26UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:47HOW 4th & 1 at UNLV 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−11.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−35.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:34HOW 4th & 20 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−5.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HOW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:26HOW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:56HOW Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:27UNLV Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:20UNLV Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:45UNLV Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:17HOW Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:09HOW Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:12UNLV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:34HOW Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOWDrive 1TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.3%
Caylin Newton run for 5 yds to the Howrd 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Caylin Newton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+8
99.3%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Jason Collins for 8 yds to the Howrd 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for 9 yds to the Howrd 48Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+52
99.2%
Caylin Newton run for 52 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
99.2%
HOWARD Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Caylin Newton) to the Howrd 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5799% → 99%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
99.2%
Charles Williams run for 19 yds to the Howrd 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.2%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the Howrd 25Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+3
99.2%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the Howrd 22Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-5
99.2%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Howrd 27Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
99.2%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
99.1%
Evan Pantels 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Caylin Newton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.1%
Dezmond Wortham run for 2 yds to the Howrd 27Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.1%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Jason Collins for 7 yds to the Howrd 34Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.1%
Anthony Philyaw run for 1 yd to the Howrd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.1%
Dezmond Wortham run for 4 yds to the Howrd 39Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+12
99.1%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Jason Collins for 12 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.1%
Caylin Newton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
99.1%
Amir Lewis rush for 5 yards to the UNLV44 (SCISSUM, Chaunc), PENALTY HOW holding (Aaron Hutchins) 10 yards to the HOW41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 20
OWN 41
-2
99.1%
Anthony Philyaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Howrd 39Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 22
OWN 39
+5
99.1%
Caylin Newton run for 5 yds to the Howrd 44Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 17
OWN 44
-15
99.1%
HOWARD Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Howrd 29Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 32
OWN 29
+16
99.1%
- Damiongillespie punt for 34 yds , Jericho Flowers returns for 16 yds to the Howrd 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:1799% → 99%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
98.8%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 46 yds to the Howrd 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
98.8%
Armani Rogers run for a loss of 5 yards to the Howrd 6Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.8%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the Howrd 6Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-5
98.8%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Devonte Boyd) to the Howrd 11Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
98.8%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
98.6%
Evan Pantels 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.6%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Jason CollinsSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
98.6%
Anthony Philyaw run for 2 yds to the Howrd 13Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+5
98.6%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Dezmond Wortham for 5 yds to the Howrd 18Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
98.6%
- Damiongillespie punt for 19 yds, downed at the Howrd 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6MISSED FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0499% → 98%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
98.5%
Charles Williams run for 8 yds to the Howrd 29Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+2
98.5%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the Howrd 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
98.5%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the Howrd 25Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
98.5%
Armani Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
98.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Travon HuntSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
98.2%
Evan Pantels 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:142% → 4%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
Anthony Philyaw rush for 2 yards to the HOW27 (LAOLAGI, Bailey;SCISSUM, Chaunc), PENALTY UNLV substitution infraction 5 yards to the HOW30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
98.1%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to - DamiongillespieSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
98.1%
Anthony Philyaw run for a loss of 5 yards to the Howrd 25Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
98.1%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Anthony Philyaw for 19 yds to the Howrd 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.0%
Dezmond Wortham run for 2 yds to the Howrd 46Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
98.0%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Jordan Scott, broken up by Tim HoughSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+29
98.1%
Caylin Newton run for 29 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
97.5%
Caylin Newton run for 5 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+8
97.5%
Dezmond Wortham run for 8 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
97.5%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 7 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+2
97.5%
Da'Vaun Johnson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
97.6%
Da'Vaun Johnson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.5%
Da'Vaun Johnson run for no gain to the UNLV 1Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 1 yd for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:3997% → 96%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
96.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 35 yds to the Howrd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
96.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 9 yds to the Howrd 26Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+14
96.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 14 yds to the Howrd 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
96.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the Howrd 8Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
96.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the Howrd 3Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-5
96.8%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Howrd 8Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+4
96.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the Howrd 4Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 2
OPP 4
-5
96.6%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Howrd 9Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
96.2%
Evan Pantels 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+24
95.9%
Anthony Philyaw run for 24 yds to the Howrd 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
95.7%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 12 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-12
95.6%
Anthony Philyaw rush for 6 yards to the UNLV42 (BAKER, Dalton), PENALTY HOW holding declined, PENALTY HOW illegal block (Tyrone Ramsey) 12 yards to the HOW40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 22
OWN 40
0
95.8%
Caylin Newton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 22
OWN 40
+6
95.8%
Caylin Newton run for 6 yds to the Howrd 46Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 16
OWN 46
-5
95.9%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Antoine Murray for 18 yards to the UNLV36, out-of-bounds (AUSTRIE, Evan), PENALTY HOW ineligible downfield on pass (Howard Warren) 5 yards to the HOW41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 21
OWN 41
0
95.9%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle AnthonySimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 21
OWN 41
+2
96.1%
- Damiongillespie punt for 29 yds , Jericho Flowers returns for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:1295% → 93%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
95.1%
Armani Rogers run for 7 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
95.4%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+40
95.3%
Charles Williams run for 40 yds to the Howrd 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+75
92.8%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 4 yards Charles Williams fumbled, forced by David Hudson, recovered by Howrd Devin Rollins , return for 75 yds, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:2492% → 93%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
92.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+9
92.0%
Armani Rogers run for 9 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
92.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 13 yds to the Howrd 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
92.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the Howrd 42Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
92.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 11 yds to the Howrd 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
91.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 10 yds to the Howrd 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
91.5%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 5 yds to the Howrd 16Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+7
91.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 7 yds to the Howrd 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
91.5%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 4 yds to the Howrd 5Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
91.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the Howrd 1Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:229% → 9%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.3%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Anthony Philyaw for 1 yd to the Howrd 26Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
90.9%
Caylin Newton pass complete to . Lemonier Jr. for 7 yds to the Howrd 33Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-3
90.7%
Caylin Newton pass complete to . Lemonier Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Howrd 30Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
91.0%
- Damiongillespie punt for 37 yds, downed at the UNLV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:4990% → 93%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
90.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 22 yds to the Howrd 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
91.4%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 12 yds to the Howrd 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
92.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+20
91.9%
Armani Rogers run for 20 yds to the Howrd 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+30
92.5%
Evan Pantels 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
92.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
93.0%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
92.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
-5
92.0%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 35
-5
91.7%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Darren Woods Jr.) to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
91.6%
Evan Pantels punt for 69 yds, downed at the Howrd 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
91.2%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle AnthonySimilar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
91.3%
Caylin Newton run for 1 yd to the Howrd 2Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+4
91.6%
Caylin Newton run for 4 yds to the Howrd 6Similar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
91.9%
- Damiongillespie punt for 19 yds, downed at the Howrd 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 25 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
93.9%
Anthony Philyaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Howrd 22Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
94.1%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Jason Collins for 6 yds to the Howrd 28Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
94.2%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Jason Collins for 6 yds to the Howrd 34Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.1%
Dezmond Wortham run for no gain to the Howrd 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3395% → 94%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.8%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Trevor KantemanSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
94.8%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Brandon Presley for 3 yds to the Howrd 31Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
94.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
93.8%
Evan Pantels 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 19INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
92.8%
Caylin Newton run for 14 yds to the Howrd 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
92.2%
Anthony Philyaw run for 3 yds to the Howrd 48Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-1
92.0%
Caylin Newton pass intercepted Gabe McCoy return for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:2194% → 97%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
93.9%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 7
50
+35
94.0%
Armani Rogers run for 35 yds to the Howrd 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
94.3%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Kyle Saxelid) to the Howrd 20Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+16
94.2%
Charles Williams run for 16 yds to the Howrd 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.3%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the Howrd 1Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 21TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:284% → 12%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for 4 yds to the Howrd 29Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
96.1%
Caylin Newton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Howrd 26Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
96.4%
Caylin Newton run for 16 yds to the Howrd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
96.0%
Anthony Philyaw run for 1 yd to the Howrd 43Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+3
96.0%
Caylin Newton run for 3 yds to the Howrd 46Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+10
96.0%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Kyle Anthony for 10 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
95.7%
Dezmond Wortham run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+15
95.9%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Jason Collins, PENALTY UNLV illegal use of hands (HUGHES JR., Mik) 15 yards to the UNLV31, 1ST DOWN HOW, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
95.4%
Jequez Ezzard run for 2 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+6
95.3%
Caylin Newton run for 6 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
95.7%
Anthony Philyaw run for no gain to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+9
95.8%
Jordan Scott run for 9 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
95.3%
Caylin Newton run for 10 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
95.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for 1 yd to the UNLV 3Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.1%
Anthony Philyaw run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
87.7%
HOWARD Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Anthony Philyaw) to the Howrd 20Similar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 0
OWN 20
+15
87.9%
UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Kolo Uasike) to the Howrd 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 23TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:0416% → 31%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
84.4%
Jason Collins run for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+13
84.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for 13 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
84.0%
Dezmond Wortham run for 4 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
84.0%
Caylin Newton run for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
83.7%
Dezmond Wortham run for 1 yd to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
82.3%
Dezmond Wortham run for 3 yds to the UNLV 6 HOWARD Penalty, Offensive holding (Kyle Anthony) to the UNLV 16Similar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 0
OPP 16
+5
81.8%
Caylin Newton run for 5 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
69.0%
Anthony Philyaw run for 11 yds for a TD, (C. Newton Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5772% → 87%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
72.4%
Armani Rogers run for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
72.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 19 yds to the Howrd 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
76.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 11 yds to the Howrd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
78.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the Howrd 32Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
78.3%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the Howrd 28Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+6
76.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 6 yds to the Howrd 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
78.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 10 yds to the Howrd 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
78.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 6 yds to the Howrd 6Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 0
0
72.1%
UNLV Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Howrd 6Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
78.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 3 yds to the Howrd 3Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
86.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 25TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3219% → 59%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
81.5%
Dezmond Wortham run for no gain to the Howrd 32Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
82.0%
Dezmond Wortham run for 4 yds to the Howrd 36Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+14
82.1%
Caylin Newton run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
50
+4
78.5%
Anthony Philyaw run for 4 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
78.5%
Caylin Newton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+42
79.0%
Caylin Newton pass complete to Anthony Philyaw for 42 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.5%
Caylin Newton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0055% → 51%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
54.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+3
54.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+1
52.9%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 16Similar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 4
OWN 16
-5
50.9%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
51.0%
Evan Pantels punt for 10 yds, downed at the UNLV 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:1470% → 78%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
30.1%
Dezmond Wortham run for 4 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-4
30.1%
Caylin Newton pass incomplete to Kyle Anthony, PENALTY HOW ineligible downfield on pass (Jordan Dunham) 4 yards to the UNLV21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
30.5%
Caylin Newton run for 5 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+5
32.0%
Anthony Philyaw run for 5 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
30.1%
Caylin Newton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+5
21.1%
Anthony Philyaw run for 5 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-4
22.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28FUMBLE
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+33
34.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Drew Tejchman for 33 yds Drew Tejchman fumbled, forced by Tye Freeland, recovered by Howrd Tye FreelandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0082% → 76%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
17.8%
HOWARD Penalty, false start (Howard Warren) to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-1
18.3%
Anthony Philyaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 16
OPP 46
0
18.9%
Dezmond Wortham run for no gain to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+1
21.1%
Dezmond Wortham run for 1 yd to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 15
OPP 45
-5
23.8%
HOWARD Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 20
50
0
24.1%
Caylin Newton punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
14.3%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 18 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
16.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+30
16.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 30 yds to the Howrd 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:34
Caylin Newton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dakota Lebofsky KICK)
-37.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-16
TD · Q4 14:09
Anthony Philyaw run for 11 yds for a TD, (C. Newton Run For Two-point Conversion)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com