Try the model
CP

Cal Poly 13 at San José State 34

SJSU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadCP aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreCP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:18 · Casey Sublette punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+20.9Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:18: Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 18 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:55: Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 13 yds for a TD CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:24: Montel Aaron pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 49 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford PAT MISSED) — SJSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:37: Khaleel Jenkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Sublette KICK) — CP win probability +10.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:50: Zamore Zigler run for 17 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CP made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00SJSU 4th & 8 at CP 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58CP 4th & 1 at CP 21, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:58CP 4th & 4 at SJSU 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:58SJSU 4th & 4 at CP 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:25CP 4th & 12 at CP 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:16SJSU 4th & 2 at CP 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.0%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:33CP 4th & 5 at SJSU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:47SJSU 4th & 1 at CP 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−1.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−6.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:18CP 4th & 4 at SJSU 48, down 1
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:07SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00CP 4th & 6 at SJSU 30, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:58CP 4th & 9 at CP 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:26SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 46, up 1
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:55CP 4th & 2 at CP 43, down 8
    Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:35SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 45, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:03CP 4th & 9 at CP 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00CP 4th & 1 at SJSU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−2.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−8.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:35SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:34CP 4th & 8 at CP 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:55CP 4th & 8 at CP 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:18SJSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:55SJSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:24SJSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:37CP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:50SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
80.6%
Josh Love run for no gain to the SJSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
80.6%
Zamore Zigler run for 3 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+13
80.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Hartley for 13 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
80.6%
Zamore Zigler run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
80.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 2 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+23
80.6%
Zamore Zigler run for 23 yds to the CPoly 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
80.6%
ZIGLER, Zamore rush for 6 yards to the CP35 (SAVUSA, Tiasamo;FERGUSON, Jack), PENALTY CP sideline interference 5 yards to the CP36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 36
-10
80.6%
ROBERSON, Malik rush for 2 yards to the CP34 (SAVUSA, Tiasamo), PENALTY SJ holding (OLIVER, Josh) 10 yards to the CP46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
80.6%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+7
80.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 7 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
80.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Kam DennisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
80.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CPoly 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
79.8%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the CPoly 5Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+5
79.8%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 5 yds to the CPoly 10Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+2
79.9%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the CPoly 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
79.8%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the CPoly 15Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+5
79.8%
Khaleel Jenkins pass complete to J.J. Koski for 5 yds to the CPoly 20Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
79.9%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 1 yd to the CPoly 21Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+50
79.9%
Casey Sublette punt for 50 yds , Bailey Gaither returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
78.8%
Josh Love sacked by LJ Mealancon for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 23 Josh Love fumbled, recovered by CPoly Jack Ferguson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 4FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4222% → 23%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
78.1%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
78.1%
Joe Protheroe run for 5 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 16
-1
78.3%
Joe Protheroe run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 17Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
77.5%
Casey Sublette 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
77.7%
Brandon Monroe run for 17 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
78.2%
Brandon Monroe run for 2 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
78.2%
Brandon Monroe run for no gain to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+8
77.8%
Josh Love run for 8 yds to the CPoly 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
78.4%
Malike Roberson run for 27 yds to the CPoly 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
78.6%
Malike Roberson run for 3 yds to the CPoly 18Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
78.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+3
78.4%
Zamore Zigler run for 3 yds to the CPoly 15Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+1
78.0%
Brandon Monroe run for 1 yd to the CPoly 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
76.7%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the CPoly 16Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-1
76.7%
Kyle Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 15Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 9
OWN 15
-3
77.1%
Khaleel Jenkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the CPoly 12Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 12
OWN 12
0
77.3%
Casey Sublette punt for 43 yds, downed at the SJSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
76.4%
Brandon Monroe run for 2 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
76.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the CPoly 47Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
76.5%
Josh Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
75.9%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 8FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:5226% → 30%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
74.4%
Kyle Lewis run for 5 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+12
74.2%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 12 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
74.1%
Joe Protheroe run for 5 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
73.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+5
73.4%
JENKINS,Khaleel rush for no gain to the SJ27 (ROBERTS, Owen), PENALTY SJ offside (ROBERTS, Owen) 5 yards to the SJ22, 1ST DOWN CP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
73.0%
Kyle Lewis run for 4 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+2
73.0%
Jared Mohamed run for 2 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-1
73.5%
Khaleel Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 17 Khaleel Jenkins fumbled, recovered by CPoly Khaleel JenkinsSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
70.3%
Casey Sublette 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 3:0772% → 78%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
71.6%
Zamore Zigler run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+18
71.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 18 yds to the CPoly 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
72.9%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 11
50
0
72.2%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 11
50
+19
71.8%
Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 19 yds to the CPoly 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
73.7%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 5 yds to the CPoly 26Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
73.7%
Malike Roberson run for 2 yds to the CPoly 24Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
72.9%
Malike Roberson run for 2 yds to the CPoly 22Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+4
69.1%
Brandon Monroe run for 4 yds to the CPoly 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
70.8%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
77.6%
Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 18 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.6%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 4 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
73.7%
Jared Mohamed run for 7 yds to the CPoly 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
73.5%
Jared Mohamed run for 3 yds to the CPoly 49Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-5
73.4%
Kyle Lewis run for a loss of 5 yards to the CPoly 44Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-5
75.0%
CAL POLY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+13
75.2%
Khaleel Jenkins pass complete to J.J. Koski for 13 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
74.5%
Casey Sublette punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
75.2%
Brandon Monroe run for 10 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
75.4%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the SJSt 18 DeJon Packer fumbled, forced by R.J. Mazolewski, recovered by CPoly Dominic FraschSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
71.2%
Jared Mohamed run for 1 yd to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+15
71.2%
Jared Mohamed run for 15 yds to the SJSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.2%
Khaleel Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 2 Khaleel Jenkins fumbled, forced by Owen Roberts, recovered by SJSt Owen Roberts SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Frank Ginda) to the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
74.9%
Malike Roberson run for no gain to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+3
74.8%
Malike Roberson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 5Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+25
74.0%
Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 25 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
75.3%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+1
74.9%
Malike Roberson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
74.1%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Josh OliverSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
73.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CPoly 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:0127% → 29%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
73.2%
Kyle Lewis run for 7 yds to the CPoly 36Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
72.2%
Khaleel Jenkins pass complete to Malcolm Davis for 6 yds to the CPoly 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
71.9%
Kyle Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 41Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
72.5%
Chuby Dunu run for 6 yds to the CPoly 47Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
71.7%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 6 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
71.1%
Khaleel Jenkins pass complete to J.J. Koski for 13 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
70.3%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 4 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
70.0%
Khaleel Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
71.4%
Khaleel Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
70.9%
Casey Sublette 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
70.9%
Jared Mohamed run for 4 yds to the CPoly 48Similar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
70.7%
Kyle Lewis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:58
3RD & 4
50
-5
70.7%
Malcolm Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the CPoly 45Similar
Q3 14:58
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+4
73.7%
Casey Sublette punt for 49 yds , Malike Roberson returns for 4 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+29
73.3%
Zamore Zigler run for 29 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
74.5%
Zamore Zigler run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 38Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+9
74.1%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 9 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-1
74.9%
Malike Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 46Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
73.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CPoly 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
72.4%
Kyle Lewis run for 9 yds to the CPoly 16 Kyle Lewis fumbled, forced by Maurice McKnight, recovered by SJSt William OssaiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4376% → 84%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
76.1%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Carter NicholsSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
76.1%
Malike Roberson run for 3 yds to the CPoly 13Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
84.0%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 13 yds for a TD CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
81.2%
Jared Mohamed run for 5 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
80.0%
Khaleel Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
81.0%
Kyle Lewis run for 3 yds to the CPoly 43Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
81.8%
Casey Sublette punt for 36 yds, downed at the SJSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
82.9%
Montel Aaron sacked by Augustino Elisaia for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+9
82.8%
DeJon Packer run for 9 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+7
82.6%
Malike Roberson run for 7 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
83.6%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Tre Hartley) to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+2
82.9%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Malike Roberson for 2 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+9
82.8%
Zamore Zigler run for 9 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
83.6%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
82.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 40 yds, fair catch by J.J. Koski at the CPoly 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
81.9%
Jared Mohamed run for 4 yds to the CPoly 19Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
81.9%
Malcolm Davis run for 5 yds to the CPoly 24Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
81.8%
Jared Mohamed run for 2 yds to the CPoly 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
81.7%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 1 yd to the CPoly 27Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
81.8%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 5 yds to the CPoly 32Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-5
81.8%
CAL POLY Penalty, false start (Zach Shallcross) to the CPoly 27Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
82.6%
Khaleel Jenkins pass incomplete to Jake Smeltzer, broken up by Ethan AguayoSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
83.3%
Casey Sublette punt for 63 yds, downed at the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:1086% → 94%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
86.0%
Zamore Zigler run for 15 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.3%
Zamore Zigler run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
86.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
50
+1
87.7%
Malike Roberson run for 1 yd to the CPoly 49Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+49
93.7%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 49 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 23TD
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:4711% → 21%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
89.1%
Jared Mohamed run for 7 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
88.7%
Jared Mohamed run for 4 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
88.4%
Khaleel Jenkins pass incomplete to Kitu HumphreySimilar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
88.5%
Jared Mohamed run for 8 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+10
88.9%
Jared Mohamed run for 10 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
88.1%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 7 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+1
88.1%
Jared Mohamed run for 1 yd to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
90.5%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 1 yd to the SJSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
90.8%
Jared Mohamed run for 2 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
89.8%
Jared Mohamed run for 2 yds to the SJSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.8%
Jared Mohamed run for 1 yd to the SJSt 1Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.2%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Sublette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
86.4%
Montel Aaron run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 12Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+4
86.2%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
85.4%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
84.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CPoly 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
80.9%
Jared Mohamed run for 1 yd to the CPoly 46Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-2
81.3%
Khaleel Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 44Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+3
82.6%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 3 yds to the CPoly 47Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
83.2%
Casey Sublette punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3688% → 96%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.5%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Tre HartleySimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
87.3%
DeJon Packer run for 13 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
88.8%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
88.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Tre Hartley) to the SJSt 44Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+14
88.4%
DeJon Packer run for 14 yds to the CPoly 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
89.3%
DeJon Packer run for 3 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+22
89.3%
Zamore Zigler run for 22 yds to the CPoly 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
96.2%
Zamore Zigler run for 17 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 27FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.0%
Jared Mohamed run for no gain Jared Mohamed fumbled, forced by William Ossai, recovered by SJSt Jamal Scott , return for 22 yds, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:461% → 1%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.0%
Jared Mohamed run for 4 yds to the CPoly 29Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.0%
Jared Mohamed run for 3 yds to the CPoly 32Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
99.0%
Jared Mohamed run for 14 yds to the CPoly 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Ryan McNab run for no gain to the CPoly 46Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.0%
Khaleel Jenkins run for 2 yds to the CPoly 48 Khaleel Jenkins fumbled, forced by David Williams, recovered by CPoly Khaleel JenkinsSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
99.4%
Khaleel Jenkins pass incomplete to Jake SmeltzerSimilar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
99.4%
Casey Sublette punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 10 , Bailey Gaither returns for no gain to the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
99.4%
DeJon Packer run for 1 yd to the SJSt 11Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+4
99.4%
DeJon Packer run for 4 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+6
99.4%
Sam Allen run for 6 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.4%
DeJon Packer run for 6 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+7
99.4%
Jamar Williams run for 7 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.4%
Jamar Williams run for 2 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:37
Khaleel Jenkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Casey Sublette KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 10:55
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 13 yds for a TD CAL POLY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Bryce Crawford KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 9:18
Montel Aaron pass complete to JaQuan Blackwell for 18 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com