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UCD

UC Davis 17 at San Diego State 38

SDSU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreUCD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:22 · Chad Woolsey run for 4 yds to the UCDav 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:33: John Baron II 39 yd FG GOOD — UCD win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:10: Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 7 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:08: Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:21: Christian Chapman pass complete to Darryl Richardson for 21 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK) — SDSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:22: Jake Maier pass complete to Logan Montgomery for 7 yds for a TD, (Max O'Rourke KICK) — UCD win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCD made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:33SDSU 4th & 8 at UCD 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:33UCD 4th & 6 at UCD 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:10UCD 4th & 6 at SDSU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:10SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:04UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:10UCD 4th & 13 at SDSU 14, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:15UCD 4th & 21 at UCD 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:16UCD 4th & 6 at UCD 42, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:01UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 28, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 9 at UCD 41, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:51SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 13, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:12SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:10SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:08SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:21SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:01SDSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:55UCD Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:22UCD Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCDDrive 1INT
5 plays · 52 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
98.3%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 41 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
98.3%
Namane Modise run for 1 yd to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+10
98.3%
Jake Maier pass complete to Marcus Cummins for 10 yds to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
98.3%
Jake Maier pass intercepted Tariq Thompson return for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 6:3898% → 98%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
98.2%
PENNY, Rashaad rush for 3 yards to the SDSU24 (BUA, Ryan;HOLMER, Erik), PENALTY UCD offside 5 yards to the SDSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+1
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
98.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 6 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+17
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 17 yds to the UCDav 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
98.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 12 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the UCDav 33Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
98.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 5 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the UCDav 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-9
98.2%
Christian Chapman run for a loss of 9 yards to the UCDav 33Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+11
98.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 11 yds to the UCDav 22Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
98.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
97.5%
John Baron II 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.5%
Mitchell Layton run for 6 yds to the UCDav 31Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.4%
Aaron Moore run for 3 yds to the UCDav 34Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.4%
Mitchell Layton run for no gain to the UCDav 34Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
97.5%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 29Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.5%
Matt Blair punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
97.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 61 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 5FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:563% → 3%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
97.4%
Namane Modise run for 2 yds to the UCDav 35Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
97.5%
Namane Modise run for 5 yds to the UCDav 40Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
97.4%
Jake Maier run for 4 yds to the UCDav 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
97.4%
Namane Modise run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 43Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+10
97.4%
Jake Maier pass complete to Marcus Cummins for 10 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+26
97.4%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 11 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
97.3%
SPENCER, C.J. pass incomplete, PENALTY SDSU pass interference 15 yards to the SDSU6, 1ST DOWN UCD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
97.3%
MAIER, Jake pass incomplete to CUMMINS, Marcus (SMITH, Ron), PENALTY UCD ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SDSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
97.3%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Marcus CumminsSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
97.4%
Jake Maier pass complete to C.J. Spencer for 3 yds to the SDSt 8Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
97.4%
C.J. Spencer run for 2 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
96.8%
Max O'Rourke 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
97.0%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST down UC DAVIS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Christian Chapman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
97.1%
Christian Chapman sacked by Erik Holmer for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+4
96.9%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
96.9%
B Hecklein punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
96.7%
Jake Maier pass intercepted Ron Smith return for 5 yds to the UCDav 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0997% → 97%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-12
96.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the UCDav 23 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the UCDav 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 38
+15
96.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Tim Wilson Jr. for 15 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+14
96.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 14 yds to the UCDav 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
96.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the UCDav 7Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 7 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
97.0%
Namane Modise run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 19Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-5
97.1%
Jake Maier sacked by Ronley Lakalaka for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 14Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+9
97.1%
Namane Modise run for 9 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+2
97.1%
Matt Blair punt for 39 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 25 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FUMBLE
12 plays · 30 yds · 0:4297% → 97%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
97.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
97.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Rashaad PennySimilar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
97.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 5 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
97.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 7 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
97.1%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the UCDav 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.3%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the UCDav 44Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
97.2%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the UCDav 39Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
97.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.3%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Kahale WarringSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
97.2%
Fred Trevillion run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 43 Fred Trevillion fumbled, recovered by UCDav Ryan Bua , return for 17 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
95.9%
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+30
95.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 30 yds to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
95.7%
Justin Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 14 Justin Williams fumbled, forced by Tariq Thompson,Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
95.8%
Jake Maier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
96.1%
Jake Maier pass incomplete to Marcus CumminsSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+3
96.2%
Jake Maier run for 3 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:3596% → 99%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+27
96.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 27 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST down UC DAVIS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
96.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 15 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
96.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 8 yds to the UCDav 39Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+7
96.6%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the UCDav 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+23
96.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Parker Houston for 23 yds to the UCDav 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -11 yds · 1:492% → 2%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
98.2%
WILLIAMS, J. rush for no gain to the UCD23 (KELLY, Kameron), PENALTY UCD holding 10 yards to the UCD13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+2
98.3%
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 15Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 18
OWN 15
-5
98.3%
Justin Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 10Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 23
OWN 10
+2
98.3%
Justin Williams run for 2 yds to the UCDav 12Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 21
OWN 12
+7
98.3%
Matt Blair punt for 40 yds , Quest Truxton returns for 7 yds to the UCDav 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+56
98.8%
Christian Chapman pass intercepted Keelan Doss return for 56 yds to the UCDav 33 Keelan Doss fumbled, recovered by SDSt Isiah MacklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:3499% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
98.7%
Juwan Washington run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+18
98.7%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the UCDav 43 for a 1ST down UC DAVIS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UCDav 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 5 yds to the UCDav 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+5
98.7%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the UCDav 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
98.7%
Juwan Washington run for 9 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+3
98.7%
Juwan Washington run for 3 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
98.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 25Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+4
98.7%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds to the UCDav 21Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Darryl Richardson for 21 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
99.7%
Aaron Moore run for 12 yds to the UCDav 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
99.7%
Namane Modise run for 10 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Jake Maier pass complete to Namane Modise for no gain to the UCDav 38Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Jake Maier run for no gain to the UCDav 38Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.7%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 9 yds to the UCDav 47Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
99.7%
UC DAVIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 42Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Matt Blair punt for 57 yds, downed at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 4:46100% → 100%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
99.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 3
-2
99.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the SDSt 1Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
99.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start ( Yards) to the SDSt 1Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
99.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+7
99.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+36
99.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 36 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 5 yds to the UCDav 46Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-5
99.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 49Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+21
99.8%
Rashaad Penny run for 21 yds to the UCDav 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
99.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Kahale Warring for 21 yds to the UCDav 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.8%
Juwan Washington run for 5 yds to the UCDav 4Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Juwan Washington run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Wesley Preece for 4 yds to the UCDav 29Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to C.J. Spencer for 3 yds to the UCDav 32Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
99.9%
C.J. Spencer run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCDav 28Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Matt Blair punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+24
99.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 24 yds to the UCDav 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the UCDav 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 1 yd to the UCDav 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
99.9%
B Hecklein punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Thomas at the UCDav 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 20TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
99.9%
Logan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the UCDav 6Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-2
99.9%
Namane Modise run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 4Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+28
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Wesley Preece for 28 yds to the UCDav 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
99.9%
UC DAVIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 27Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+38
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 38 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Logan Montgomery for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-1
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Logan Montgomery for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 8 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
99.9%
C.J. Spencer run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 17
OPP 32
+32
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 32 yds for a TD, (Max O'Rourke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.9%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-2
99.9%
Ryan Agnew sacked by Mason Moe for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-1
99.9%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 13Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
99.9%
B Hecklein punt for 37 yds , Isaiah Thomas returns for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 22TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:290% → 1%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
50
+12
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Keelan Doss for 12 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
Namane Modise run for 5 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+16
99.9%
Namane Modise run for 16 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
99.9%
Jake Maier pass complete to Marcus Cummins for 10 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Jake Maier pass complete to Logan Montgomery for 7 yds for a TD, (Max O'Rourke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Tyler Wormhoudt run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.5%
Tyler Wormhoudt run for 4 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.5%
Tyler Wormhoudt run for 3 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.5%
Tyler Wormhoudt run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-4
99.5%
Tyler Wormhoudt run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 35Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+15
99.5%
Tyler Wormhoudt run for 1 yd to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST down UC DAVIS Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (14 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Isiah Macklin for 17 yds to the SANDIEGOST 33 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the UCDav 43Similar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 3
OPP 43
+4
99.5%
Chad Woolsey run for 4 yds to the UCDav 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
99.5%
WOOLSEY, Chad rush for 3 yards to the UCD36 (MOE, Mason), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the UCD49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+12
99.5%
Chad Woolsey run for 12 yds to the UCDav 37Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
99.5%
Chad Woolsey run for 4 yds to the UCDav 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:08
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
+2
TD · Q3 10:21
Christian Chapman pass complete to Darryl Richardson for 21 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
+1
FG · Q1 7:33
John Baron II 39 yd FG GOOD
-0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com