Try the model
VMI

VMI 0 at Air Force 62

AF
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadVMI aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreVMI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:42 · Bill Hogan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+44.0Home team on offense+4.4Score differential+1.3Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:47: Timothy McVey run for 27 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — VMI win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:47: Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 57 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:56: Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:27: Ronald Cleveland run for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:30: Arion Worthman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VMI made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:43VMI 4th & 25 at VMI 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45AF 4th & 6 at VMI 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21VMI 4th & 3 at VMI 19, down 7
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42VMI 4th & 3 at VMI 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56VMI 4th & 9 at VMI 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:55AF 4th & 24 at AF 6, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:57VMI 4th & 8 at VMI 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:27VMI 4th & 3 at VMI 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:36VMI 4th & 16 at VMI 19, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:45VMI 4th & 8 at VMI 28, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:13AF 4th & 2 at VMI 13, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:03VMI 4th & 4 at VMI 31, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:12VMI 4th & 7 at VMI 20, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:47AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:47AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:27AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:30AF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:51AF Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:03AF Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:19AF Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:26AF Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1398% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
98.2%
Arion Worthman run for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
98.2%
Timothy McVey run for 14 yds to the VMI 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
98.2%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Timothy McVey for 4 yds to the VMI 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
98.2%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the VMI 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
98.2%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the VMI 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.2%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Malik Miller for no gain to the VMI 27Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
98.0%
Timothy McVey run for 27 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
98.0%
Daz Palmer run for 4 yds to the VMI 26Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-1
98.0%
Mason Dermott run for a loss of 1 yard to the VMI 25Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+17
98.0%
Austin Coulling pass complete to Daz Palmer for 17 yds to the VMI 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.0%
Austin Coulling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
98.0%
Daz Palmer run for a loss of 3 yards to the VMI 37 Daz Palmer fumbled,Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-10
98.0%
Austin Coulling pass complete to Tyain Smith for 5 yds to the VMI 42 VMI Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the VMI 27Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 25
OWN 27
0
98.0%
Austin Coulling pass incomplete to Mason DermottSimilar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 25
OWN 27
+7
98.0%
Bill Hogan punt for 54 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 7 yds to the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
97.7%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+19
97.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 19 yds to the VMI 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds to the VMI 42Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the VMI 42Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
97.4%
Tyain Smith run for 4 yds to the VMI 16Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
97.4%
Kris Thornton run for no gain to the VMI 16Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+3
97.5%
Austin Coulling pass complete to Alex Ramsey for 3 yds to the VMI 19Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
97.5%
Bill Hogan punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:3897% → 98%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
97.2%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+10
97.3%
Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.3%
Malik Miller run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+57
97.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 57 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
97.5%
Daz Palmer run for 4 yds to the VMI 21Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
97.5%
Mason Dermott run for 3 yds to the VMI 24Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Austin Coulling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Bill Hogan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+45
97.5%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Timothy McVey for 45 yds to the VMI 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
97.6%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the VMI 19Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
97.6%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt, broken up by Collin LoftisSimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+14
97.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 14 yds to the VMI 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.2%
Austin Coulling run for 5 yds to the VMI 30 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Garrett Kauppila) to the VMI 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Tyain Smith run for no gain to the VMI 45Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.2%
Tyain Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the VMI 44Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+2
98.2%
Duncan Hodges pass complete to Rohan Martin for 2 yds to the VMI 46Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
98.2%
Bill Hogan punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
98.3%
Arion Worthman sacked by Tony Richardson for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+2
98.3%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 16
OWN 14
-8
98.3%
Arion Worthman sacked by Brian Lipscomb for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 24
OWN 6
0
98.2%
Charlie Scott punt for 53 yds , Isaiah Parker returns for no gain to the VMI 39 Isaiah Parker fumbled, recovered by VMI Isaiah ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
98.2%
Duncan Hodges pass complete to Daz Palmer for a loss of 3 yards to the VMI 36Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+3
98.3%
Duncan Hodges pass complete to Daz Palmer for 3 yds to the VMI 39Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.3%
Duncan Hodges pass complete to Joey Brown for 2 yds to the VMI 41Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
98.3%
Bill Hogan punt for 35 yds, downed at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:3099% → 99%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.5%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
98.5%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+28
98.5%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Timothy McVey for 28 yds to the VMI 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
98.6%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the VMI 36Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+8
98.6%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the VMI 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
98.7%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the VMI 25Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+10
98.7%
Arion Worthman run for 10 yds to the VMI 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
98.7%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the VMI 11Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
99.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Tyain Smith run for 2 yds to the VMI 27Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.5%
Tyain Smith run for 5 yds to the VMI 32Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Duncan Hodges pass incomplete to Rohan Martin, broken up by Marquis GriffinSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Bill Hogan punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.5%
Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.5%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the VMI 48Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
99.4%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the VMI 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
99.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VMI 49Similar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+43
99.5%
Parker Wilson run for 43 yds to the VMI 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.5%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the VMI 4Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.6%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.7%
Daz Palmer run for 10 yds to the VMI 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.7%
VMI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VMI 30Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-3
99.7%
Daz Palmer run for a loss of 3 yards to the VMI 27Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+14
99.7%
Daz Palmer run for 14 yds to the VMI 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-16
99.7%
Duncan Hodges sacked by Santo Coppola for a loss of 16 yards to the VMI 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+5
99.7%
Daz Palmer run for 5 yds to the VMI 14Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
99.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the VMI 19Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
99.7%
Duncan Hodges pass incomplete to Rohan Martin, broken up by Cody MoorheadSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+2
99.7%
Bill Hogan punt for 51 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.8%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+13
99.8%
Malik Miller run for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
99.8%
Nate Romine pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 10 yds to the VMI 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.8%
Malik Miller run for 10 yds to the VMI 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.8%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the VMI 30Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+20
99.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 20 yds to the VMI 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.8%
Jacob Stafford run for 5 yds to the VMI 5Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Daz Palmer run for 3 yds to the VMI 29Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-1
99.9%
Duncan Hodges pass complete to Daz Palmer for a loss of 1 yard to the VMI 28Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Duncan Hodges pass incomplete to Kris ThorntonSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Bill Hogan punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
99.8%
Nate Romine run for 29 yds to the VMI 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 11 yds to the VMI 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Christian Mallard run for 5 yds to the VMI 26Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+5
99.9%
Christian Mallard run for 5 yds to the VMI 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-13
99.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (-13 Yards) to the VMI 34Similar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 23
OPP 34
+1
99.9%
Christian Mallard run for 1 yd to the VMI 33Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 22
OPP 33
+12
99.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 12 yds to the VMI 21Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.8%
Nate Romine pass complete to Adam Farah for 8 yds to the VMI 13Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 5 yds to the VMI 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Kevin Fagan run for 4 yds to the VMI 4Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.9%
Andrew Smith run for 1 yd to the VMI 3Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Brice Tucker run for 6 yds to the VMI 31Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Duncan Hodges pass incomplete to Quan MyersSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Duncan Hodges pass incomplete to Mason Dermott, broken up by Jordan JacksonSimilar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Bill Hogan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+11
99.9%
Nolan Eriksen run for 11 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 6 yds to the VMI 47Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Andrew Smith run for 1 yd to the VMI 46Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 11 yds to the VMI 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.9%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 4 yds to the VMI 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+8
99.9%
Isaiah Sanders run for 8 yds to the VMI 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.9%
Kevin Fagan run for 1 yd to the VMI 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+8
99.9%
D'Morea Wicks run for 8 yds to the VMI 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
99.9%
Kevin Fagan run for 4 yds to the VMI 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
100.0%
Christian Mallard run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
100.0%
Kendrick Jackson run for 4 yds to the VMI 21Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
Quan Myers run for 2 yds to the VMI 23Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-3
100.0%
Quan Myers run for a loss of 3 yards to the VMI 20Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Bill Hogan punt for 55 yds, downed at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:38100% → 100%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Colton Parton run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
100.0%
Jake LaCoste run for 19 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
100.0%
Colton Parton run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+7
100.0%
Jake LaCoste run for 7 yds to the VMI 45Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
100.0%
Colton Parton run for 4 yds to the VMI 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
100.0%
Colton Parton run for 3 yds to the VMI 38Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+21
100.0%
TEAM run for 21 yds to the VMI 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
100.0%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 7 yds to the VMI 10Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+6
100.0%
D'Morea Wicks run for 6 yds to the VMI 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Crabbe PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 23INT
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Quan Myers run for 5 yds to the VMI 30Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
100.0%
Reece Udinski run for a loss of 1 yard to the VMI 29 Reece Udinski fumbled, recovered by VMI Reece UdinskiSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
100.0%
Reece Udinski run for 6 yds to the VMI 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
100.0%
Javeon Lara run for 1 yd to the VMI 36Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Quan Myers run for 2 yds to the VMI 38Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+8
100.0%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Joey Brown for 8 yds to the VMI 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
100.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Quan Myers run for no gain to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
100.0%
Reece Udinski pass complete to Brice Tucker for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+34
100.0%
Reece Udinski pass intercepted Christopher Musselman return for 34 yds to the VMI 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-17
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:27
Ronald Cleveland run for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 14:56
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 2:47
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 57 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com