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WMU

Western Michigan 10 at Toledo 37

TOL
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:47 · Derrick Mitchell punt for 44 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 30 Danzel McKinley-Lewis fumbled, recovered by Toled Danzel McKinley-Lewis
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+24.0Home team on offense+4.6Score differential+1.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:47: Terry Swanson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +4.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:20: Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +5.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:15: Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:02: Reece Goddard pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 26 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK) — WMU win probability +8.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:17: Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +6.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:29WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:45TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:33WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:12TOL 4th & 4 at WMU 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:02WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:01WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:47WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:02WMU 4th & 4 at TOL 7, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:20WMU 4th & 3 at TOL 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.7
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:54WMU 4th & 25 at WMU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:04WMU 4th & 10 at TOL 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:03TOL 4th & 18 at WMU 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:59WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:24TOL 4th & 7 at WMU 18, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:47TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:20TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:15TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:02WMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:17TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
82.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+14
82.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 14 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
82.3%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
82.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+10
82.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 10 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
82.3%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
0
82.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
50
0
82.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
50
0
82.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
81.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 4Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
81.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 6Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
81.4%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Caleb Bailey, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 6
OWN 6
+5
81.5%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 54 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2181% → 80%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
81.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 3 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
81.2%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
80.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
80.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
80.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
80.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
80.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+8
80.4%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 48 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 8 yds to the Toled 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:1880% → 79%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
79.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
50
+2
80.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+14
80.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 14 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
80.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 9 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+3
80.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the WMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
80.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
80.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 8 yds to the WMich 14Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-2
80.2%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 16Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
79.2%
Jameson Vest 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0121% → 21%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
79.0%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 13 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
78.8%
Ra'Sean Davie run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 29Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-2
79.1%
Ra'Sean Davie run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+4
79.5%
Reece Goddard run for 4 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+4
79.6%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 64 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 4 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+4
79.5%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 64 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 4 yds to the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 2:1378% → 83%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+27
78.3%
Terry Swanson run for 27 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
78.6%
SWANSON, Terry rush for 4 yards to the TOLEDO40 (FAYAD, Ali), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (WEISS, Brant) 10 yards to the TOLEDO26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+12
78.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 12 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+49
78.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 49 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
82.7%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
82.6%
Reece Goddard sacked by Richard Olekanma for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
82.8%
Reece Goddard run for 1 yd to the WMich 20Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
83.1%
Reece Goddard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-6
83.3%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 44 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 30 Danzel McKinley-Lewis fumbled, recovered by Toled Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
82.0%
Logan Woodside sacked by Antonio Balabani for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+2
81.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 2 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Obbie Jackson return for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 4:1719% → 20%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
81.5%
Leo Ekwoge run for 8 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+26
81.3%
Reece Goddard run for 26 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
80.7%
Leo Ekwoge run for 3 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
80.7%
Leo Ekwoge run for no gain to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+3
81.3%
Reece Goddard run for 3 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
80.4%
Josh Grant 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:3682% → 88%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
82.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+15
82.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Drew Rosi for 15 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
82.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+11
82.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 11 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea Johnson, broken up by Asantay BrownSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
82.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+8
82.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
82.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 10 yds to the WMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
86.6%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Anton Curtis for 27 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.7%
Reece Goddard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
86.1%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 7 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
85.4%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Anton CurtisSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
85.9%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
88.0%
Terry Swanson run for 18 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.4%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
88.1%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
16 plays · 20 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
87.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+9
87.7%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 9 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-16
87.5%
D'Wayne Eskridge run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 29 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal block (-13 Yards) to the WMich 16Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 26
OWN 16
+18
88.0%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 18 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
87.5%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+5
87.8%
GODDARD, Reece sacked for loss of 4 yards to the WMU30 (WOODLEY,Ja'Wuan), fumble by GODDARD, Reece recovered by WMU GODDARD, Reece at WMU30, PENALTY TOLEDO offside 5 yards to the WMU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+3
87.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
87.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-1
86.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
50
+3
86.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
86.6%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Donnie Ernsberger, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-15
87.0%
GODDARD, Reece pass complete to SANDERS, Luke for 4 yards to the TOLEDO43 (HOLLMAN, Kadar), PENALTY WMU pass interference (ERNSBERGER, Don) 15 yards to the WMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 25
OWN 38
0
88.0%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 25
OPP 0
0
87.1%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Leo Ekwoge TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 25
OWN 38
+19
88.4%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 44 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 19 yds to the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:1390% → 97%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
90.2%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+27
90.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 27 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
90.6%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the WMich 35 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Andre Turner) to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
96.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:024% → 12%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
96.3%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Anton Curtis for 7 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
96.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
96.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
96.1%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 12 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
96.1%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Anton Curtis for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 46Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+15
96.2%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Anton Curtis for 15 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Donnie ErnsbergerSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Anton CurtisSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
96.2%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Tyron Arnett, broken up by Ka'dar HollmanSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+13
96.2%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 13 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
88.2%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 26 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:4092% → 99%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.0%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
91.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Darryl Richards for 6 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+40
91.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 40 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
92.6%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
92.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+9
92.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 9 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
98.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Tyron ArnettSimilar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+20
98.2%
Reece Goddard pass intercepted Kahlil Robinson return for 20 yds to the WMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19FG
8 plays · 2 yds · 3:0099% → 99%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Reggie GilliamSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
98.6%
Logan Woodside run for 10 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
98.6%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the WMich 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-10
98.6%
THOMPKINS, Art rush for 2 yards to the WMU11 (SPILLANE, Rob;MATICH, Nick), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (JEPPESEN, Nate) 10 yards to the WMU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 23
-5
98.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (Logan Woodside) to the WMich 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 23
OPP 28
+5
98.5%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 23
0
98.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 18
OPP 23
+40
98.8%
Jameson Vest 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
98.8%
GODDARD, Reece pass incomplete to ARNETT, Tyron, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (TEACHEY, Josh) 15 yards to the WMU27, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.8%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Tyron ArnettSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
98.8%
Reece Goddard run for 2 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Reece Goddard run for no gain to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+35
98.9%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 6:1899% → 100%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
99.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+26
99.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 26 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.0%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
99.0%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+6
99.0%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
99.0%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 23Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+1
99.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the WMich 22Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+4
99.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 4 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
99.9%
Jameson Vest 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22INT
10 plays · 58 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.9%
Reece Goddard run for 8 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+14
99.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.9%
Reece Goddard run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+15
99.9%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Anton Curtis for 15 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
99.9%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 20 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Reece Goddard pass incomplete to Tyron Arnett, broken up by Justin ClarkSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
99.9%
Reece Goddard run for 1 yd to the Toled 15Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Reece Goddard pass intercepted, touchback. Ka'dar Hollman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-4
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:02
Reece Goddard pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 26 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)
-8
TD · Q3 0:17
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q3 8:15
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com