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OHIO

Ohio 24 at Buffalo 31

BUF
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:54 · Kyle DeWeen punt for 36 yds, downed at the Ohio 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior−9.4Home team on offense+12.9Score differential+6.0Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:11: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 54 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +7.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 0:00: Adam Mitcheson 49 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +9.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:05: Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +14.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:53: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 57 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +24.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:10: Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +25.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28OHIO 4th & 6 at BUF 18, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:05OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00BUF 4th & 13 at OHIO 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:19OHIO 4th & 7 at BUF 38, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−1.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:11BUF 4th & 4 at OHIO 36, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−2.0
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:36OHIO 4th & 5 at BUF 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−7.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54BUF 4th & 20 at BUF 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:15OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:02BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:05BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 44, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−3.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 8 at OHIO 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−1.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:12OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−4.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:02BUF 4th & 10 at OHIO 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:20OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−3.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:12OHIO 4th & 12 at BUF 13, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:18BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:42OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:11BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:05OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:53OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:10BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 9 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
31.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for no gain to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
31.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
31.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 35 yds, downed at the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 1:0733% → 34%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+35
32.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 35 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
32.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 3 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
34.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 31 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5066% → 64%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd to the Ohio 26Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
33.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
35.9%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Demone Harris for a loss of 6 yards Nathan Rourke fumbled, recovered by Buff Charles Harris , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:4664% → 61%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.9%
Julian Ross run for 9 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+23
35.8%
Julian Ross run for 23 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
35.7%
Julian Ross run for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
35.7%
Julian Ross run for no gain to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+19
35.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 19 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
35.5%
Nathan Rourke run for 4 yds to the Buff 18 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Papi White) to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 16
OPP 28
-1
35.6%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 17
OPP 29
0
35.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 17
OPP 29
+11
35.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 11 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+7
35.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to David Burroughs for 7 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
35.5%
David Burroughs run for 9 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 1
OPP 2
0
35.5%
David Burroughs run for no gain to the Buff 2Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-5
35.6%
[PSTL], PENALTY OHIO delay of game (Rourke, Nathan) 5 yards to the UB7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
39.5%
Nathan Rourke run for 7 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:2741% → 49%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
41.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 13 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
41.9%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (O'HAGAN, James) 5 yards to the UB38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+8
41.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 8 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+54
48.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 54 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
46.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
46.8%
Julian Ross run for 2 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
46.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Troy Mangen, broken up by Ryan WilliamsonSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
47.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 34 yds, downed at the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:0750% → 60%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
50.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
50.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+17
49.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 17 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
50.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-3
50.7%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Kent Berger for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 13
OPP 32
0
50.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+49
60.4%
Adam Mitcheson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3645% → 41%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
55.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 5 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+7
54.5%
Julian Ross run for 7 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+28
54.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 28 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
53.0%
[PSTL], Ross, Julian rush for 5 yards to the UB36 (COLLIER, Jordan), PENALTY OHIO holding (Morgan, Mason) 10 yards to the OHIO49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+6
54.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Mason Morgan for 6 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+7
54.3%
Nathan Rourke run for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
53.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron Odom, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
59.1%
Michael Farkas punt for 30 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
68.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+2
68.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+5
68.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY OHIO offside (Smart, Trent) 5 yards to the UB19, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
69.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
69.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+18
68.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 18 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
70.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 14 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
70.8%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
70.6%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+1
70.0%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the Ohio 36Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
69.4%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:5034% → 34%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
66.1%
Julian Ross run for 5 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
65.3%
Julian Ross run for 6 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
65.2%
Julian Ross run for no gain to the Ohio 31Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+16
66.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 16 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
64.4%
Julian Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+22
65.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 22 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
62.3%
Nathan Rourke run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-1
61.9%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
62.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Jerrid Marhefka, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
65.6%
Louie Zervos 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
70.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
72.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+11
72.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 11 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Emmanuel ReedSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
72.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Ohio 41Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 41
-11
71.2%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Quentin Poling for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 20
OWN 48
0
69.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 36 yds, downed at the Ohio 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
72.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 2 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
73.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew MeyerSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
73.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+2
73.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 43 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1576% → 73%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
76.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (JOHNSON, Anthon) 5 yards to the UB36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+2
75.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 2 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+3
76.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
74.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Emmanuel ReedSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+2
72.9%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 34 yds , Papi White returns for 2 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:4427% → 44%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
73.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
72.6%
Julian Ross run for 2 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+16
72.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 16 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+40
70.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 40 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
68.8%
Julian Ross run for 5 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
68.8%
Julian Ross run for 4 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
69.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 12 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
68.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
70.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+8
68.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 8 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
70.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
70.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 5 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
69.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Quentin PolingSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
68.1%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 36 yds, downed at the Ohio 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 1:3133% → 58%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
67.1%
Julian Ross run for 2 yds to the Ohio 10Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+10
67.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 10 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
66.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Mason Morgan for 23 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
41.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 57 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:4750% → 50%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
49.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+33
50.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 33 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
55.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
55.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
54.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by Evan CroutchSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
50.1%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
46.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Mason Morgan for 20 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
44.8%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew MeyerSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
45.6%
Julian Ross run for no gain to the Ohio 34Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
47.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
49.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 51 yds, downed at the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
50.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 12 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
51.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 12 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
53.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
54.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 7 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
54.5%
K.J. Osborn run for 3 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
56.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
55.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
52.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
50.2%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0052% → 48%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
48.1%
David Burroughs run for 1 yd to the Ohio 6Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+1
48.7%
David Burroughs run for 1 yd to the Ohio 7Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 8
OWN 7
0
50.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Troy Mangen, broken up by Demone HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 8
OWN 7
+39
51.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 38 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 39 yds to the Ohio 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2560% → 86%
Q4 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
60.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Ohio 1Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23INT
17 plays · 62 yds · 5:5822% → 12%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.1%
Nathan Rourke run for 2 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
77.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Khalil HodgeSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
79.5%
[SGUN], Rourke, Nathan pass incomplete to Meyer, Andrew, PENALTY UB pass interference (ROBERTS, Tim) 14 yards to the OHIO41, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
75.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Julian RossSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
76.3%
Julian Ross run for 8 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+6
73.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 6 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
73.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 8 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+15
72.4%
[PSTL], Rourke, Nathan pass intercepted by COLLIER, Jordan at the UB27, COLLIER, Jordan return to the OHIO36 (Pruehs, Jake), PENALTY UB roughing passer (HARRIS, Demone) 15 yards to the UB22, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
69.9%
Jalen Fox run for 5 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+4
69.9%
Julian Ross run for 4 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
72.2%
Julian Ross run for 2 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
69.9%
Quinton Maxwell run for 4 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+1
69.9%
Julian Ross run for 1 yd to the Buff 6Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-7
84.1%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Ishmael Hargrove for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 12
OPP 13
0
87.8%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted, touchback. Khalil Hodge return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:1096% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
96.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:10
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+25.8
TD · Q3 0:53
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 57 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q3 6:05
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com