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NIU

Northern Illinois 24 at Central Michigan 31

CMU
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.8CMU 36.8%Michael Armstrong 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 10 · Q3 9:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:52 · Michael Armstrong 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−5.8Score differential−2.6Garbage-time factor−3.5Pregame prior−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:06: Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 56 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +8.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:19: Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +21.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:35: Jonathan Ward run for 54 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +27.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:03: Tre Harbison run for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +36.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:32: Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +36.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 14:08CMU 4th & 7 at NIU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:01CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:14NIU 4th & 21 at NIU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:49CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:53NIU 4th & 24 at CMU 26, up 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.6 ptsPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%
    64% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:42CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:13NIU 4th & 3 at CMU 6, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−7.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:07CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:11NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:46CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:04NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 37, up 17
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:26CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:06NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:52CMU 4th & 5 at NIU 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−7.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:35NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−3.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:07CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:29NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:40CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 19, up 7
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:32CMU 4th & 4 at NIU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−1.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−23.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:08NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:59NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:06CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:19CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:35CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:03NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.9
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:32CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5244% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.3%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+37
44.2%
Shane Morris pass intercepted for a TD Jawuan Johnson return for 37 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
50
-3
44.4%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
44.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+6
44.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tony Poljan for 6 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
44.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoIll 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
44.2%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+3
44.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 3 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
44.1%
Anthony Thompson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
44.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 5 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
44.1%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
44.2%
Matt Ference punt for 67 yds, downed at the CMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1044% → 43%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
43.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
43.8%
Shane Morris run for 2 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+3
43.2%
Tony Poljan run for 3 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
43.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
42.5%
BROWN, D.J. rush for loss of 2 yards to the NIU46 (BUNTING,Sean), PENALTY NIU illegal block 15 yards to the NIU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 25
OWN 33
+5
43.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 20
OWN 38
-1
43.0%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 21
OWN 37
0
43.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 21
OWN 37
0
43.4%
Matt Ference punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
42.8%
Tony Poljan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-3
42.7%
Tony Poljan run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 12Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 13
OWN 12
0
42.4%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Kumehnnu Gwilly for no gain to the CMich 12Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
42.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 29 yds, downed at the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:2059% → 64%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
41.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
41.5%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 9
OPP 0
0
41.5%
BLAKE, Christia rush for loss of 12 yards to the NIU48 (MORRIS,Shane), PENALTY NIU face mask off-setting, PENALTY CMU face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+11
41.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 11 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
41.3%
D.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+7
41.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 7 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
41.3%
Jordan Huff run for 12 yds to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
41.3%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the CMich 3Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
41.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jordan Huff for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 4Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · -10 yds · 1:5237% → 35%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.8%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
36.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 21 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
37.8%
Romello Ross run for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
37.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Jackson AbreschSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-9
37.7%
Shane Morris sacked by Jawuan Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 20 Shane Morris fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 38
OWN 20
-5
35.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Da'Quaun Jamison) to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 43
OWN 15
+1
35.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 34 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:0765% → 64%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
34.7%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the CMich 40 Tre Harbison fumbled, forced by Nate Brisson-Fast,Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+11
34.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 11 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
34.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+15
34.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 15 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-14
34.5%
Marcus Childers sacked by Mike Danna for a loss of 14 yards to the CMich 26 NORTHERNIL Penalty, intentional grounding (Marcus Childers) to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 24
OPP 26
0
34.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 26
0
35.0%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 24
OPP 26
0
36.4%
Matt Ference punt for 22 yds, downed at the CMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
36.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 18 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
37.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
37.1%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
36.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Mycial AllenSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
36.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 47 yds , Chad Beebe returns for no gain to the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:0265% → 64%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
34.8%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
35.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 3 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+16
34.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 16 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
34.0%
Jordan Huff run for 12 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
33.7%
Jordan Huff run for 11 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
33.6%
CHILDERS, Marcu pass incomplete to BROWN, D.J., PENALTY CMU roughing passer (OSTMAN,Joe) 12 yards to the CMU13, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
33.6%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
33.6%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+1
33.7%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
36.0%
Christian Hagan 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
31.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
31.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
31.2%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
31.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 36 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
50
0
35.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
50
-3
35.6%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
36.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for no gain to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
37.5%
Matt Ference punt for 28 yds, downed at the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
29.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Eric Cooper, broken up by Albert SmallsSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
28.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
28.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
30.5%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
30.5%
D.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
30.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 7 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
29.4%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
29.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jordan Huff for no gain to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
30.2%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, downed at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:2126% → 24%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
25.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
25.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 12 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
26.5%
MORRIS,Shane pass incomplete to CONKLIN,Tyler, PENALTY NIU roughing passer (SMITH, Sutton) 15 yards to the NIU49, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
28.0%
Shane Morris sacked by Ben LeRoy for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 16
OWN 45
-8
25.2%
Shane Morris sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 24
OWN 37
+7
24.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 7 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 17
OWN 44
+8
24.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 8 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
21.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.2%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
21.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
21.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+8
21.9%
Matt Ference punt for 35 yds , Mark Chapman returns for 8 yds to the CMich 38 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the CMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 2:0722% → 31%
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
21.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 7 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
22.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+2
23.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 2 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
23.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+56
31.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 56 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
30.9%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
31.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
32.3%
Matt Ference punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21FG
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2031% → 37%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+52
31.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 52 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for no gain to the NoIll 5Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.5%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
32.0%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
36.8%
Michael Armstrong 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.4%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
33.1%
Tre Harbison run for 14 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
31.3%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-5
31.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Nathan Veloz) to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
32.0%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+1
33.0%
Marcus Childers pass intercepted Sean Bunting return for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23TD
18 plays · 69 yds · 6:1435% → 60%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
35.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
34.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 13 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
37.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
35.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
37.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive offside (Jack Heflin) to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
38.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
38.7%
Mark Chapman run for 13 yds to the NoIll 24 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
40.2%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
36.2%
Shane Morris run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
38.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+7
38.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 7 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
38.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
38.0%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-5
35.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+18
33.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 18 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
38.0%
Shane Morris run for 3 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1951% → 49%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
49.0%
Marcus Jones run for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
46.2%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
47.8%
Marcus Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+8
50.7%
Matt Ference punt for 45 yds , Mark Chapman returns for 8 yds to the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:3855% → 84%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
54.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
54.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 5 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+8
55.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 8 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
83.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 54 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0025% → 21%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
75.4%
Marcus Childers sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 13
OWN 31
0
77.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Chad Beebe, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 13
OWN 31
-1
78.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
79.2%
Matt Ference punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
81.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Shakir Carr) to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
81.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+2
81.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+5
80.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive offside (Jawuan Johnson) to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
80.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
79.6%
Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
76.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
76.2%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-3
75.5%
Marcus Childers sacked by Chris Kantzavelos for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+3
79.0%
Matt Ference punt for 51 yds , Mark Chapman returns for 3 yds to the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
84.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+2
84.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
83.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Eric Cooper, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
82.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 45 yds, downed at the NoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 30TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:1219% → 61%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
81.6%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
82.7%
CHILDERS, Marcu pass incomplete, PENALTY CMU illegal use of hands (STANITZEK,M.) 15 yards to the CMU48, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
78.1%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 12
50
+3
80.1%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+13
80.0%
Marcus Childers run for 13 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
76.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+7
75.3%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
75.3%
Marcus Childers run for 12 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
38.6%
Tre Harbison run for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 31TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3155% → 94%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
55.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 40 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
63.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
63.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
61.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 3 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+29
94.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 32INT
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0012% → 18%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.4%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
88.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
50
+26
86.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Chad Beebe for 26 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. Brown, broken up by Trevor ApseySimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
82.0%
Marcus Childers pass intercepted Josh Cox return for 15 yds to the CMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:03
Tre Harbison run for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-36.7
TD · Q4 1:32
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
+36.2
TD · Q4 12:35
Jonathan Ward run for 54 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
+27.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com