2017 · Week 13 · Nov 21, 2017 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:08 · Derek Adams punt for 44 yds, downed at the Akron 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:22: Justin Rankin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +4.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:21: Timeout KENT ST, clock 00:21 — AKR win probability +5.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:18: Manny Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +4.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q2 0:17: Kesean Gamble run for 9 yds Kesean Gamble fumbled, forced by Jamal Davis II, recovered by Akron Ulysees Gilbert III , return for 40 yds, (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +4.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Nick Gasser kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — AKR win probability +6.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 8 of 10KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 11:38KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q1 8:18AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.6%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.8%average punt
- Q1 5:59KENT 4th & 14 at AKR 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snapGo for it17.0%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call17.1%45% to makePunt17.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:46AKR 4th & 15 at KENT 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snapGo for it81.9%−0.517% to convertField goalTheir call82.4%60% to makePunt81.1%−1.3average punt
- Q1 3:39KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 21, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.5%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 19 at AKR 40, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it81.4%−1.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.5%average punt
- Q2 14:43KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.3%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q2 11:16AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snapGo for it76.8%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.3%average punt
- Q2 9:08KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it20.2%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.1%average punt
- Q2 7:38AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it76.4%−1.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.5%average punt
- Q2 5:56KENT 4th & 20 at KENT 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snapGo for it19.8%−2.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.1%average punt
- Q2 2:00AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 35, up 3Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snapGo for it75.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 13:30AKR 4th & 25 at AKR 47, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it94.5%−1.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%average punt
- Q3 11:27KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 29, down 24Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%−0.8average punt
- Q3 8:29AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 28, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 20 at AKR 30, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q4 12:42KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 31, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q4 11:03AKR 4th & 6 at KENT 40, up 24Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.8%40% to convertField goal98.7%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:38KENT 4th & 13 at KENT 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:44AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.0%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:22KENT Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.6%97% to makeGo for two21.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:18AKR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.0%97% to makeGo for two83.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1682% → 82%
KENTDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
81.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 6 yds to the KntSt 34 KENT ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the KntSt 19Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-9
81.4%
George Bollas sacked by Brennan Williams and Jamal Baggett for a loss of 9 yards to the KntSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
KENTDrive 4MISSED FG4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1919% → 19%
Q1 7:18
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-7
80.9%
George Bollas sacked by Jaquavis Dixon for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 35 George Bollas fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5FG7 plays · 37 yds · 2:1381% → 82%
Q1 5:59
3RD & 15
OPP 28
0
81.4%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Manny Morgan, broken up by Theo EboigbeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 3:39
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
82.1%
Derek Adams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4582% → 81%
KENTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 14:43
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+5
82.0%
BOLLAS, George pass intercepted by GEORGE, Jordan at the KENT40, GEORGE, Jordan return to the KENT40, PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the KENT19, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
82.2%
Derek Adams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
82.0%
Kato Nelson pass intercepted Demetrius Monday return for 19 yds to the Akron 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10TD3 plays · 25 yds · 1:1420% → 25%
AKRDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-9
76.8%
Kato Nelson sacked by Elvis Hines for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 8Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
75.9%
Nick Gasser punt for 52 yds , Kavious Price returns for no gain to the KntSt 18 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the KntSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q2 9:08
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+5
76.7%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 5 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
76.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+21
76.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Kavious Price for 21 yds to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+5
76.8%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to HARRELL, Trey (BROWN, Kyron), PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the KENT32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+12
76.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 12 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 20
OWN 34
0
77.2%
Derek Adams punt for 38 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1275% → 74%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
73.7%
George Bollas pass intercepted Alvin Davis return for 2 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17TD11 plays · 40 yds · 1:2177% → 84%
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+19
76.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Manny Morgan for 4 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the KntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+13
77.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 13 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 0
+1
74.6%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to WOLF, Austin, PENALTY KENT pass interference 8 yards to the KENT2, NO PLAY, PENALTY KENT personal foul 1 yards to the KENT1, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18FUMBLE TD3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0016% → 11%
KENTDrive 20INT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
AKRDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 13:30
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-13
95.6%
Kato Nelson sacked by Jamal Parker for a loss of 13 yards to the Akron 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Manny Morgan for no gain Manny Morgan fumbled, recovered by AkronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24TD14 plays · 86 yds · 6:223% → 2%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
96.5%
Dustin Crum sacked by Brian Reinke for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+15
96.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Justin Rankin for 15 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+21
96.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 21 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 15
OPP 29
-10
97.3%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 29 yards to the AKRON0, clock 03:32, PENALTY KENT holding 10 yards to the AKRON39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
97.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds to the Akron 1 AKRON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.9%
Justin Rankin pass complete to Chalfonte Butler for 1 yd for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25PUNT9 plays · 1 yds · 1:1298% → 98%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
98.6%
Kato Nelson sacked by Jim Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the Akron 32 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by Akron Trevor Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+5
98.5%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to SMITH, Kwad., PENALTY KENT offside 5 yards to the AKRON41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-6
98.6%
Kato Nelson sacked by Marques Moore and Jim Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kavious Price at the KntSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
AKRDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 28PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
AKRDrive 29END OF GAME10 plays · 58 yds · 3:0899% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Nick Gasser kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+6.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:21
Timeout KENT ST, clock 00:21
+5.3
TD · Q2 11:22
Justin Rankin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)
-4.9