Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 40 at Ball State 24

BALL
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2017 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+2.1BALL 16.3%Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 9:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:58 · Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior−34.3Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:49: Nolan Givan 11 Yd pass from Jack Milas (Morgan Hagee Kick) — BALL win probability +6.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:06: K.J. Osborn 16 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick) — BUF win probability +8.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:47: Malik Dunner 50 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick) — BALL win probability +8.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:42: Anthony Johnson 56 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick) — BUF win probability +8.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:52: Justin Hall 47 Yd pass from Jack Milas (Morgan Hagee Kick) — BALL win probability +10.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at BALL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58BUF 4th & 9 at BALL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:54BUF 4th & 18 at BALL 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:37BALL 4th & 3 at BUF 3, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:27BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 35, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:23BUF 4th & 10 at BALL 12, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:01BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 44, down 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:47BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:38BALL 4th & 1 at BUF 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−1.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:01BUF 4th & 4 at BALL 4, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.8%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−3.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:58BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 19, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:21BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:49BALL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:06BUF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:47BALL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:42BUF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:52BALL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 5:0286% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
14.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 17 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
14.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 15 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
14.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
14.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-5
14.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Emmanuel Reed) to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
14.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+6
14.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
14.2%
BALL ST Penalty, offside defense (James Jennette III) to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+4
14.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
14.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+1
14.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
14.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
14.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the BalSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
14.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
16.3%
Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
16.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Khalil Newton for 7 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
16.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-11
16.6%
Drew Plitt sacked by Khalil Hodge for a loss of 11 yards to the BalSt 26 Drew Plitt fumbled, recovered by BalSt Curtis Blackwell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+10
16.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 10 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
16.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 38 yds, downed at the Buff 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:4682% → 84%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
17.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+16
17.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 16 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
17.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Emmanuel ReedSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
17.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 13 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
17.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 23 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
16.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
16.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+3
17.0%
Markice Hurt run for 3 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
17.0%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Ryan Williamson return for 18 yds to the BALLST 39 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (Charles Harris) to the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
16.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 15 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
16.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by David RuethSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
16.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 15 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
16.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Ishmael Hargrove) to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
16.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 12 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
16.3%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Jacob White for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+5
16.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 13
OPP 43
0
16.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 13
OPP 43
-5
16.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
16.9%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Riley Miller at the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4517% → 16%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
16.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-2
16.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Malik Dunner for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+2
16.4%
Jack Milas run for 2 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+3
16.3%
Morgan Hagee punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 39 , K.J. Osborn returns for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 0:0083% → 88%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
17.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Josh MillerSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
17.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 4 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+33
17.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 33 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
16.9%
Theo Anderson run for 13 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
11.7%
Theo Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:4413% → 14%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
13.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 8 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+9
13.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
13.8%
Jack Milas run for 6 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
13.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
13.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
13.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 8 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+12
13.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 12 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
14.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 10 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
14.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Justin Hall, broken up by Brandon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
14.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 12 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
14.2%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
14.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the Buff 3Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
14.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to David Moore, broken up by Tatum SlackSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
13.7%
Morgan Hagee 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0490% → 93%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
10.5%
Theo Anderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+8
11.0%
Theo Anderson run for 8 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+45
10.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 45 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
7.3%
Anthony Johnson 11 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Markice HurtSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
9.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Khalil NewtonSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
9.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 37 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 1 yd to the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
7.0%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Christian Albright return for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:4011% → 17%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
10.8%
Justin Hall run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
10.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Khalil Newton for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+12
10.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (12 Yards) to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
10.3%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Khalil NewtonSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
10.3%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
16.8%
Nolan Givan 11 Yd pass from Jack Milas (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
14.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
16.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
16.1%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Kyle Schrank) to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
15.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
16.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
16.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
16.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BalSt Jack MilasSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
15.3%
Morgan Hagee punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3686% → 95%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
13.6%
Theo Anderson run for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
13.3%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+45
13.1%
Theo Anderson run for 45 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
5.0%
K.J. Osborn 16 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:198% → 16%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
7.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
8.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
8.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 1
50
+50
16.4%
Malik Dunner 50 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:1687% → 88%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
12.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+57
12.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 57 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
11.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
11.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
11.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Emmanuel ReedSimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
11.7%
Adam Mitcheson 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2215% → 15%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
14.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
15.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
14.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Caleb Huntley for 10 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Malik DunnerSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
15.1%
Malik Dunner run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
15.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Malik Dunner for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
14.5%
Morgan Hagee punt for 31 yds, downed at the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0889% → 98%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
11.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 13 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
10.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
10.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+56
2.3%
Anthony Johnson 56 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:504% → 15%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
4.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
4.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
4.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Riley Miller for 7 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
4.5%
Malik Dunner run for 5 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
15.1%
Justin Hall 47 Yd pass from Jack Milas (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
10.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
10.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-6
10.7%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
11.1%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 49 yds, downed at the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0013% → 15%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
13.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 13 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
14.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 6
50
+9
14.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
14.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
14.5%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
14.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
15.0%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 6:3094% → 98%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
6.4%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
6.3%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
6.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
5.9%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+34
5.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 34 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
5.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the BalSt 17Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+11
5.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 11 yds to the BalSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
5.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
5.8%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
6.0%
Theo Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 4Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
1.9%
Adam Mitcheson 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Nolan Givan, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
2.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
2.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Malik DunnerSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 10
OWN 19
-5
2.7%
Jack Milas sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
1.1%
Theo Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+12
1.2%
Theo Anderson run for 12 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:52
Justin Hall 47 Yd pass from Jack Milas (Morgan Hagee Kick)
+10.5
TD · Q3 2:42
Anthony Johnson 56 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)
-8.4
TD · Q3 10:06
K.J. Osborn 16 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com