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TOL

Toledo 66 at Bowling Green 37

BGSU
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2017 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Grant Loy run for 2 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:46: Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 24 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:18: Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 17 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:45: Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 45 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +6.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:15: Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 27 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:23: Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +10.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:36BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00BGSU 4th & 13 at TOL 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:35TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 37, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:20BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:01TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:19TOL 4th & 6 at BGSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:03BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:39BGSU 4th & 15 at TOL 15, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:09BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:09TOL 4th & 6 at BGSU 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:28BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:36TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:51TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:46BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:20TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:18BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:03TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:45TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 10:15BGSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:23TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:51TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:17TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 4:48TOL Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:3213% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
12.7%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+12
12.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 12 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
12.7%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-1
12.7%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+9
12.7%
DOEGE, Jarret pass incomplete to MILLER, Scott, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference 9 yards to the BGSU48, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
13.8%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the BOWLGREEN 47 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
13.8%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+15
13.8%
DOEGE, Jarret pass incomplete to PHOUTHAVONG, D., PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference 15 yards to the TOLEDO42, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
13.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+57
14.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 57 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5286% → 85%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
14.3%
Terry Swanson run for 18 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
14.2%
Terry Swanson run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
14.2%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
14.1%
Terry Swanson run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
14.1%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+5
14.1%
Diontae Johnson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.8%
Shakif Seymour 3 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.3%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
15.3%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for no gain to the BGSU35 (WOODLEY,Ja'Wuan), PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the BGSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 20
OWN 25
-2
15.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 22
OWN 23
+14
15.1%
Andrew Clair run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
15.1%
Joseph Davidson punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 6:1384% → 85%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
16.0%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+8
16.0%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
15.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Drew Rosi for 15 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
15.8%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+11
15.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 11 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
15.6%
Terry Swanson run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
15.5%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+24
15.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 24 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
15.4%
Desmond Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+11
15.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 11 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
15.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:4417% → 17%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
16.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 14 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
17.1%
Josh Cleveland run for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-1
17.1%
Jarret Doege run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+11
17.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leonard Skattebo for 11 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
18.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 4 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
18.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-7
17.7%
Jarret Doege sacked by Marquise Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 34
0
16.5%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
16.6%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
16.4%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
16.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus MiltonSimilar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 7
OWN 37
-13
17.2%
Michael Julian run for a loss of 13 yards to the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
23.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 24 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1979% → 83%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
21.1%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass intercepted by JEFFERIES, Cam at the TOLEDO22, JEFFERIES, Cam return to the BGSU32 (KASSEM, Sami), PENALTY BGSU pass interference 15 yards to the TOLEDO48, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
20.3%
Terry Swanson run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
19.9%
Terry Swanson run for 19 yds to the BwGrn 22 Terry Swanson fumbled, forced by Brandon Harris, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
19.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+5
19.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
16.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
18.2%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
18.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 5 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
18.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 8 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
18.5%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
19.1%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
18.6%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
18.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 44 yds, downed at the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5482% → 83%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
17.8%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
17.6%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
17.5%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
17.2%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-10
17.1%
SWANSON, Terry rush for no gain to the TOLEDO35 (BANKS, Aaron;HARRIS, Brandon), PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+10
18.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 10 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
17.5%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:5021% → 31%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
20.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 12 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
20.9%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
30.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 17 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:5375% → 77%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+25
25.1%
Terry Swanson run for 25 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
23.0%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+14
23.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 14 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
22.4%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
22.5%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+19
23.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 19 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
22.2%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+1
22.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 1 yd to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
24.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
23.0%
Jameson Vest 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5077% → 84%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
23.2%
Terry Swanson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
22.8%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
22.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
15.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 23 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.6%
Josh Cleveland run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
17.1%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Teo Redding, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
16.4%
Jarret Doege sacked by Willie Ross Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+16
15.4%
Joseph Davidson punt for 37 yds , Liam Allen returns for 16 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
8.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 45 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:2510% → 20%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+29
10.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 29 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
11.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
11.4%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+20
11.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 20 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
19.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 27 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 7:4783% → 94%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
17.1%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+23
17.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Darryl Richards for 23 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
16.2%
Art Thompkins run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
16.0%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+1
15.9%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+5
16.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 5 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
15.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
16.0%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+13
16.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 13 yds to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
15.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
15.9%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+3
16.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
16.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
15.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.9%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
8.8%
Jarret Doege sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 1:3294% → 98%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
5.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+41
1.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 41 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:123% → 2%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.6%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
2.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 7 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
2.7%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+21
2.7%
Josh Cleveland run for 21 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
3.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Hunter Folkertsma for 20 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
3.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-13
2.9%
Jarret Doege sacked by Willie Ross Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the Toled 15Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
2.4%
Jake Suder 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
4 plays · 88 yds · 0:1899% → 100%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
1.5%
PENALTY BGSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY TOLEDO unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
1.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+88
0.5%
Art Thompkins run for 88 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.4%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
0.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
0.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 5 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
0.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by Justin ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.3%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
0.3%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
0.3%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
0.3%
Jameson Vest 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.2%
Jarret Doege pass intercepted Sam Womack return for no gain to the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
0.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.3%
Brad Smith run for no gain to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
0.3%
Brad Smith run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+16
0.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Liam Allen for 16 yds to the BwGrn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
0.3%
Brad Smith run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.1%
Brad Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:480% → 0%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
0.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+39
0.2%
Grant Loy pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 39 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.1%
Grant Loy run for 5 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
0.2%
Donovan Wilson run for 4 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
0.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
0.2%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 11 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
0.2%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 6 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+5
0.1%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 5 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Grant Loy run for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:23
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 4:18
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 17 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 10:15
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 27 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com