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EMU

Eastern Michigan 27 at Miami (OH) 24

M-OH
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2017 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.8M-OH 49.8%Paul Fricano 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q2 8:51
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Q2 8:51 · Paul Fricano 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense−5.1Pregame prior+5.8Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:28: Kenny Young run for 6 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:34: Kenny Young run for 5 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +9.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:53: Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 32 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +13.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:04: Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 10 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +21.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:04: Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +38.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33EMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:53EMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:05M-OH 4th & 6 at EMU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:51EMU 4th & 9 at M-OH 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:13EMU 4th & 4 at M-OH 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−2.0
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:45M-OH 4th & 3 at EMU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−2.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:34EMU 4th & 11 at EMU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−2.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:58M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 20 at M-OH 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−2.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:12M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:17EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:58EMU 4th & 4 at M-OH 37, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−1.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:53EMU 4th & 4 at M-OH 37, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−1.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:27EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:28M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:34M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:53EMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:04EMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:04M-OH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
59.1%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-5
59.1%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+9
59.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+5
59.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+11
59.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 11 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
59.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-3
59.1%
Gus Ragland sacked by Luke Maclean for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+4
59.1%
Gus Ragland run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
59.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 90 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
59.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the EMich 5Similar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+1
59.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 6Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+19
59.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 19 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
59.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 71 yds to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.6%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
58.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.7%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.9%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the MiaOh 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
59.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+1
59.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+3
58.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 3 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+34
58.6%
Kyle Kramer punt for 34 yds, downed at the MiaOh 44 MIAMI OH Penalty, illegal touching (Daryus Thompson) to the MiaOh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 4:2642% → 47%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
58.0%
Brogan Roback run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+20
58.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 20 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
57.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
57.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
58.0%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
58.4%
Brogan Roback run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
57.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
57.8%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.7%
Brogan Roback run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 4:1354% → 58%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
54.4%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
54.4%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+14
54.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 14 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
55.4%
Kenny Young run for 9 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
55.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 5 yds to the EMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.3%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
55.3%
Kenny Young run for 16 yds to the EMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
55.3%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the EMich 9Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-6
55.0%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the EMich 5 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the EMich 15Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+6
55.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the EMich 9Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
54.7%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
57.6%
Samuel Sloman 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:0543% → 50%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
56.8%
Shaq Vann run for 7 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+2
56.1%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 18Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
56.2%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
56.2%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
56.3%
Shaq Vann run for 12 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
55.6%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+45
55.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 45 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
54.1%
Blake Banham run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
54.1%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
54.5%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
49.8%
Paul Fricano 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1851% → 64%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
50.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
50.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 9 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
51.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
51.0%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+1
52.6%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
52.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+45
52.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 45 yds to the EMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.7%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
57.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Jaron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
57.3%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to HOLDER, Isaac, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (ALLEN, Josh) 9 yards to the EMU25, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
56.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 10 yds Jaron Johnson fumbled, forced by Heath Harding, recovered by MiaOh Brad KoenigSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:3463% → 73%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
63.0%
Kenny Young run for 15 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
63.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the EMich 26Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+3
63.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+10
63.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 10 yds to the EMich 13Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+8
62.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 8 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
63.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Kevin McGillSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.9%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:2130% → 35%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
69.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 12 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
69.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
67.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+31
67.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 31 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
64.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 6 yds to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
66.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Mathew Sexton, broken up by Deondre DanielsSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
67.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
65.0%
Paul Fricano 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
66.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:5937% → 54%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
63.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+15
63.2%
Sergio Bailey II run for 15 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
61.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-6
62.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 4 yds to the EMich 47 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+26
63.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 26 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
60.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+32
46.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 32 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0051% → 53%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
51.4%
Gus Ragland run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+8
53.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
54.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 15 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
55.2%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 46Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+6
53.0%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-1
54.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 9 yds to the EMich 31 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (Jared Murphy) to the EMich 41Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+5
54.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 5 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
52.9%
Gus Ragland run for no gain to the EMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
47.2%
Ian Eriksen run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 33Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+2
48.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 2 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
49.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for no gain to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
50.5%
Jake Julien punt for 56 yds, downed at the MiaOh 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
49.0%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+7
49.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 7 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
49.7%
Gus Ragland sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 10 Gus Ragland fumbled, recovered by EMich Dion Dawson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
28.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 10 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
30.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-10
30.4%
YOUNG, Kenny rush left for no gain to the MIAMI29 (MOODY, Justin), PENALTY MIAMI illegal block (BECKER, Nate) 10 yards to the MIAMI19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 18
OWN 19
+2
29.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+10
28.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+3
28.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 31 , Blake Banham returns for 3 yds to the EMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:4372% → 73%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
27.9%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+24
28.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 24 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
25.8%
Brogan Roback run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
25.8%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+11
26.2%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BAILEY, Sergio, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (DANIELS, D.) 11 yards to the MIAMI28, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
24.9%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
24.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Jaron Johnson, broken up by Cedric AssehSimilar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-12
26.0%
Brogan Roback sacked by Junior McMullen and Nate Trawick for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OPP 38
0
27.1%
Ivan Oraha punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
24.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-8
24.9%
Gus Ragland sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+3
23.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 3 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
22.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
22.5%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+12
22.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 12 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
22.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dan BuschmanSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
22.1%
Blake Banham run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
22.4%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Joshua Allen return for no gain to the MiaOh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
20.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 13 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
21.1%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
20.4%
Leonard Ross run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+8
20.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 8 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
22.5%
Gus Ragland sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
21.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jaylon BesterSimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
19.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Nate BeckerSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
19.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 47 yds , Blake Banham returns for no gain to the EMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+27
16.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 27 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
15.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 42Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
15.1%
Brogan Roback run for 3 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
15.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Blake BanhamSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
16.4%
Brogan Roback punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
15.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Mitch Palmer) to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+9
14.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 9 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
16.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Sam MartinSimilar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
15.1%
Gus Ragland pass intercepted Kevin McGill return for no gain to the EMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:3689% → 91%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
11.4%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the EMich 45Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+12
11.4%
Shaq Vann run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
11.2%
Shaq Vann run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-2
11.0%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-1
8.8%
Ian Eriksen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
9.2%
Ivan Oraha punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
8.7%
Ivan Oraha punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 1:496% → 47%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
6.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 16 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
6.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 25 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
8.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Kevin McGillSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
7.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 14 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
6.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 7 yds to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+4
6.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 4 yds to the EMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
6.4%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the EMich 11Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
47.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0089% → 86%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
10.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-2
11.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-2
13.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:04
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+38.8
TD · Q3 6:04
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 10 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
-21.5
TD · Q3 12:53
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 32 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com