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CMU

Central Michigan 42 at Kent State 23

KENT
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2017 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:21 · Derek Adams punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior−33.9Home team on offense−0.7Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:12: Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 32 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +5.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:25: Tony Poljan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +7.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:42: Mike Carrigan run for 57 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — KENT win probability +16.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 13:42: Timeout CENTRAL MICH, clock 13:42 — KENT win probability +7.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 11:28: Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 53 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +15.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 8CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:44KENT 4th & 4 at CMU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.3%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:34CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 21, up 4
    Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:11KENT 4th & 6 at CMU 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:22CMU 4th & 1 at KENT 12, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:55CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:53KENT 4th & 2 at CMU 15, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%−0.8
    83% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−6.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:22KENT 4th & 26 at CMU 30, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.7 ptsWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:32CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 31, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:21KENT 4th & 21 at KENT 9, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:01KENT 4th & 17 at KENT 49, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:29CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:17CMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:12CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:34KENT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:25CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:41KENT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:42KENT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:28CMU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:04CMU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
13.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 16 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
13.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
13.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
13.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+11
13.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 44 yds , Kavious Price returns for 11 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 6:3414% → 18%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
14.2%
George Bollas run for 9 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
14.2%
Justin Rankin run for 4 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
14.2%
George Bollas run for no gain to the KntSt 34Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
14.2%
George Bollas pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 6 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
14.2%
George Bollas run for 5 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
14.2%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Trey HarrellSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+32
14.2%
George Bollas pass complete to Chalfonte Butler for 32 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
14.3%
Justin Rankin run for 4 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+8
14.3%
Mike Carrigan run for 8 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
14.3%
Justin Rankin run for 4 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
14.3%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan, broken up by Josh CoxSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+2
14.3%
George Bollas run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
18.2%
Shane Hynes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
16.9%
Justin Rankin run for 1 yd to the KntSt 40Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
16.9%
George Bollas run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
50
-3
17.2%
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 47Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+2
16.8%
Justin Rankin run for 2 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
16.7%
George Bollas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
16.5%
Derek Adams punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mark Chapman at the CMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
17.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+8
18.0%
Shane Morris run for 8 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
18.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+5
18.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 51 yds , Kavious Price returns for 5 yds to the KntSt 26 KENT ST Penalty, illegal block (Juantez McRae) to the KntSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0319% → 19%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
18.5%
Kesean Gamble run for 11 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
18.6%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Conor Brumfield, broken up by Darwyn KellySimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
18.5%
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 33Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+10
18.1%
BOLLAS, George sacked for no gain to the KENT33 (BRISSON-FAST, N), PENALTY CMU holding (FOUNTAIN, Malik) 10 yards to the KENT43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-3
19.1%
Mike Carrigan run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
19.2%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:3681% → 85%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
19.4%
Mark Chapman run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+29
19.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 29 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+30
18.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tony Poljan for 30 yds to the KntSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
18.3%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the KntSt 12Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 5
OPP 12
0
18.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Jerrell FosterSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
14.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+26
16.0%
George Bollas run for 26 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
16.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Trey Harrell for 15 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
16.9%
Kesean Gamble run for 4 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
16.9%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Trey Harrell, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
16.8%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Mike CarriganSimilar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
16.2%
Derek Adams punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Amari Coleman at the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 2:4384% → 90%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+35
16.0%
Shane Morris run for 35 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
15.3%
Shane Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+9
15.6%
Romello Ross run for 9 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+16
15.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 16 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
15.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 9 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-9
15.2%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Mark Chapman for 1 yd to the KntSt 22 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Conklin) to the KntSt 32Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
15.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+32
10.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 32 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3212% → 18%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
12.0%
RANKIN, Justin rush for 2 yards to the KENT22 (KANTZAVELOS, C.), PENALTY KENT holding (MILLIN, Stefano) 10 yards to the KENT10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+21
11.9%
George Bollas run for 21 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
12.1%
George Bollas pass complete to Conor Brumfield for 16 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
12.8%
Justin Rankin run for 9 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-10
13.0%
RANKIN, Justin rush for 6 yards to the CMU38 (KELLY, Darwyn), PENALTY KENT holding (BRUMFIELD, C.) 10 yards to the KENT46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+38
12.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 38 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
13.4%
Justin Rankin run for 3 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
17.6%
George Bollas pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 13 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:0085% → 92%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+42
15.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 42 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
15.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the KntSt 3Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
8.2%
Tony Poljan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 0:3611% → 15%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
11.0%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Justin Rankin, broken up by Michael OliverSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
10.9%
George Bollas run for 1 yd to the KntSt 34 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+66
15.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Trey Harrell for 66 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:1185% → 85%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
15.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 33 yds to the KntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
15.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the KntSt 15Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
15.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the KntSt 13Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
14.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 1 yd to the KntSt 12Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+30
14.8%
Michael Armstrong 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
16.6%
Justin Rankin run for 2 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:0016% → 18%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
16.1%
Justin Rankin run for 3 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+17
16.2%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 17 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
16.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Kavious Price for 9 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
17.3%
Justin Rankin run for no gain to the KntSt 40Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+8
16.9%
Justin Rankin run for 8 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
17.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Chalfonte Butler for 15 yds Chalfonte Butler fumbled, forced by Darwyn Kelly, recovered by CMich Alex BrionesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
15.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
16.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+5
16.8%
Shane Morris run for 5 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+29
16.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 52 yds , Kavious Price returns for 29 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:2716% → 17%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
16.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 15 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
17.4%
Justin Rankin run for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
17.5%
Kesean Gamble run for 7 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
18.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Conor Brumfield for 9 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+3
18.3%
Justin Rankin run for 3 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
18.3%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Justin RankinSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
18.3%
George Bollas run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+9
17.0%
George Bollas run for 9 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
16.7%
Shane Hynes 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18FUMBLE
12 plays · 76 yds · 0:0084% → 87%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
15.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
15.4%
Shane Morris run for 5 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+19
15.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 19 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
14.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Jerrell FosterSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+16
14.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 16 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
14.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Clay Walderzak) to the KntSt 41Similar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+4
14.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+17
14.1%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 17 yds to the KntSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
13.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the KntSt 17Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
13.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+13
13.9%
MORRIS, Shane pass incomplete to CHAPMAN, Mark, PENALTY KENT pass interference (MARSHALL, D.) 13 yards to the KENT4, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.5%
Shane Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 8 Shane Morris fumbled, forced by Anthony McKay, recovered by KntSt Manny Lawrence-Burke , return for 4 yds to the KntSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 2:5215% → 30%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
14.7%
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 5Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+22
14.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 22 yds to the KntSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
15.2%
Justin Rankin run for 1 yd to the KntSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
14.6%
Justin Rankin run for 4 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+11
14.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 11 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
30.3%
Mike Carrigan run for 57 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 2:0774% → 92%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
26.0%
MORRIS, Shane pass incomplete to CONKLIN, Tyler, PENALTY KENT targeting (McRAE, Juantez) 16 yards to the CMU25, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
23.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 19 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
21.9%
WARD, Jonathan rush for 5 yards to the KENT47 (MARSHALL, D.), PENALTY CMU holding (Team) 10 yards to the CMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+9
23.6%
Romello Ross run for 9 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+53
8.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 53 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21INT
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
13.0%
George Bollas run for 5 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-10
13.3%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to CARRIGAN, Mike, QB hurry by OSTMAN, Joe, PENALTY KENT holding (GREGOIRE, Adam) 10 yards to the KENT22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+13
12.5%
Justin Rankin run for 13 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+11
13.0%
Justin Rankin run for 11 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+40
13.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 26 yds to the KENTST 28 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Alex Briones) to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
16.6%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Mike CarriganSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-10
16.6%
PRICE, Kavious rush for 13 yards to the CMU1, out-of-bounds (COX, Josh;KELLY, Darwyn), PENALTY KENT holding (WARNOCK, Nate) 10 yards to the CMU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 20
OPP 24
0
15.2%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Chalfonte ButlerSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 20
OPP 24
-6
13.8%
George Bollas sacked by Mitch Stanitzek for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 26
OPP 30
0
12.6%
George Bollas pass intercepted Sean Bunting return for no gain to the CMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
7.2%
Shane Morris run for 2 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
7.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+9
7.6%
Shane Morris pass intercepted Miles Daniel return for 9 yds to the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · -31 yds · 0:0013% → 9%
Q4 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
12.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the CMich 1Similar
Q4 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
12.9%
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 3Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
12.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by KntSt Justin RankinSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 28
-6
9.8%
George Bollas sacked by Alex Briones for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 34
0
8.5%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Trey HarrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5995% → 96%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
5.5%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+1
5.4%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-2
4.8%
Shane Morris sacked by Jim Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 13
OWN 31
+1
3.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 50 yds , Kavious Price returns for 1 yd to the KntSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · -18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
4.1%
George Bollas sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 13Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 17
OWN 13
-4
4.0%
George Bollas sacked by Mitch Stanitzek for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 9Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 21
OWN 9
0
3.8%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Mike CarriganSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 21
OWN 9
-7
3.8%
George Bollas sacked by Mitch Stanitzek for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.8%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
1.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Justin Rankin for 10 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
1.7%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Kris WhiteSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-9
1.7%
Dustin Crum sacked by Chris Kantzavelos for a loss of 9 yards to the KntSt 47Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+2
1.6%
Dustin Crum run for 2 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 17
OWN 49
-2
1.6%
Dustin Crum sacked by Donny Kyre for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
0.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 49Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
0.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:42
Mike Carrigan run for 57 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+16
TD · Q4 11:28
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 53 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q4 13:42
Timeout CENTRAL MICH, clock 13:42
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com