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TOL

Toledo 10 at Ohio 38

OHIO
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2017 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:42 · Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ohio 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense+3.4Score differential+0.7Pregame prior−8.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:19: Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 34 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +14.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:29: Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +13.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:03: Dorian Brown run for 62 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +16.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:35: Jameson Vest 38 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +6.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:49: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 12 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 4:21TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:16TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:42TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:17OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:16TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:58OHIO 4th & 24 at OHIO 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−3.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:06TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11OHIO 4th & 7 at TOL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:51TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:35TOL 4th & 6 at OHIO 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:20TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:34TOL 4th & 6 at OHIO 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:12TOL 4th & 1 at OHIO 13, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:15OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:19TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:29OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:03OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:49OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:49OHIO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:0462% → 62%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
37.9%
Logan Woodside sacked by Quentin Poling for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+2
38.0%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+18
38.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 18 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
38.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 23 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
38.2%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Ohio 38Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
38.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Ohio 38Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+19
38.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 19 yds to the Ohio 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
38.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 11 yds Art Thompkins fumbled, forced by Cody Grilliot, recovered by Ohio Quentin PolingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2939% → 41%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
39.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+12
39.1%
Nathan Rourke run for 12 yds to the Ohio 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
39.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
39.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+58
39.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 58 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
40.7%
OHIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 20
OPP 22
0
40.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 20
OPP 22
0
41.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 20
OPP 22
+7
40.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 7 yds to the Toled 15 Nathan Rourke fumbled, forced by Tyler Taafe, recovered by Toled Olasunkanmi AdeniyiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:1560% → 58%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
40.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
40.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jordan FisherSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+12
40.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 12 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
40.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
40.4%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-6
41.0%
Logan Woodside sacked by Quentin Poling for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 12
OWN 27
-5
42.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 17
OWN 22
0
42.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:5443% → 48%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
42.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
43.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
42.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
43.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 17 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
44.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 12 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
48.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4254% → 51%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
45.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-5
46.4%
Woodside, Logan pass complete to Richards, Darryl for 6 yards to the OHIO48, PENALTY TOLEDO ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TOLEDO41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+2
47.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
48.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jordan FisherSimilar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
48.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1949% → 50%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
48.5%
Dorian Brown run for 6 yds to the Ohio 20Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
48.7%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.1%
Dorian Brown run for 9 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
50.3%
Dorian Brown run for 6 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
51.0%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the Ohio 41Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
51.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Dorian BrownSimilar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-5
50.3%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 36Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
49.8%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted Tycen Anderson return for no gain to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5251% → 48%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
48.9%
Swanson, Terry rush for loss of 4 yards to the TOLEDO39, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 20
OWN 33
-5
50.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 25
OWN 28
+8
50.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 8 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
51.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
52.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ohio 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1852% → 53%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
52.1%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Ohio 32Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
52.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew MeyerSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+8
51.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 8 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
52.7%
Michael Farkas punt for 44 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:4247% → 46%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
52.6%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+18
53.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
52.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 2 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
52.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 6 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
52.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
54.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 43 yds, downed at the Ohio 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:2955% → 60%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
55.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+29
55.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 29 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
58.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 42Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+34
57.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 34 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
59.8%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
59.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Toled 21 A.J. Ouellette fumbled, forced by Jack Linch, recovered by Toled Ja'Wuan WoodleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:0144% → 60%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
56.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+36
56.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 36 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
54.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 6 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+34
40.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 34 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -14 yds · 1:0348% → 47%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
47.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-7
48.3%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi and Richard Olekanma for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 30Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 15
OWN 30
-9
47.3%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 9 yards to the Ohio 21 Nathan Rourke fumbled, forced by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi, recovered by OhioSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
46.7%
Michael Farkas punt for 50 yds, downed at the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:0455% → 59%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
45.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
45.1%
OHIO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+10
45.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 10 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
42.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+9
44.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
41.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 9 yds Diontae Johnson fumbled, forced by Bradd Ellis, recovered by Ohio Javon Hagan , return for 34 yds to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2554% → 54%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
54.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Dorian BrownSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
54.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 3 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
52.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Troy MangenSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
54.0%
Louie Zervos 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
53.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:1454% → 72%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
53.6%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
54.3%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
54.8%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
55.5%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Face Mask (15 Yards) to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
57.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 11 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
58.4%
Dorian Brown run for 11 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+17
58.7%
Dorian Brown run for 9 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
59.0%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 8Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
72.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1630% → 27%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
69.8%
Logan Woodside sacked by Tony Porter for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 14Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+6
70.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 6 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
72.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
73.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:3672% → 88%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
71.7%
Dorian Brown run for 6 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+62
88.0%
Dorian Brown run for 62 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:1516% → 20%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
83.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 11 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
84.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 21 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
84.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
84.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+5
85.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-5
85.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 21Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
79.6%
Jameson Vest 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 6:2884% → 98%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
84.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
84.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
85.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
86.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+11
88.7%
Nathan Rourke run for 11 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
89.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 8 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+5
90.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 5 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
91.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 23 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
91.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 0
OPP 8
-10
92.0%
Ouellette, A.J. rush for 4 yards to the TOLEDO4, PENALTY OHIO holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 0
OPP 18
+6
92.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
98.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 12 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:182% → 2%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
97.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
97.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
98.1%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+7
98.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
98.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:1699% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
98.5%
Dorian Brown run for 7 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+11
98.5%
Nathan Rourke run for 11 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
98.6%
Dorian Brown run for 7 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+16
98.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 16 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-12
99.9%
Logan Woodside sacked by Quentin Poling and Eric Popp for a loss of 12 yards to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 22
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 21
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 15 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+7
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 7 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 15 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 4 yds to the Ohio 13Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Shakif SeymourSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 66 yds · 4:02100% → 100%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.9%
David Burroughs run for 3 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
99.9%
David Burroughs run for 3 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+51
99.9%
David Burroughs run for 51 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
99.9%
Dylan Wears run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
Dylan Wears run for 10 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
David Burroughs run for 4 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:03
Dorian Brown run for 62 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+16.3
TD · Q2 3:19
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 34 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-14
TD · Q3 10:29
Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com