2017 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2017 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:12 · Josh Grant 38 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:43: Justin Rankin run for 21 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +2.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:28: Justin Rankin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — KENT win probability +2.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: Jarvion Franklin run for 72 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK) — WMU win probability +2.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:37: George Bollas pass intercepted for a TD Darius Phillips return for 43 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK) — WMU win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:36: Josh Grant 42 yd FG GOOD — WMU win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 9:22KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.6%average punt
- Q1 5:43WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it88.8%−0.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 30, down 7Close callPunted · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:25WMU 4th & 16 at WMU 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it86.9%−0.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.6%average punt
- Q2 11:32KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.715% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q2 10:45WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 29, up 7Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snapGo for it87.1%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:05KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 43, down 7Close callPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:33WMU 4th & 2 at KENT 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.3%50% to convertField goalTheir call85.5%−0.893% to makePunt82.5%−3.9average punt
- Q2 0:44KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 28, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.0%−1.036% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 0:39WMU 4th & 1 at KENT 44, up 17Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.7%70% to convertField goal93.1%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call92.9%−0.7average punt
- Q3 15:00KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 42, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q3 7:36WMU 4th & 23 at KENT 24, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it93.7%−1.37% to convertField goalTheir call95.0%68% to makePunt92.1%−2.9average punt
- Q3 7:36KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q3 6:10WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 36, up 20Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:36WMU 4th & 5 at KENT 32, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.5%42% to convertField goal97.4%−0.151% to makePunt97.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:12WMU 4th & 10 at KENT 21, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.1%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%74% to makePunt96.9%−1.6average punt
- Q4 10:39KENT 4th & 18 at KENT 27, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%average punt
- Q4 10:39KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 30, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:11WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 28, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 6:57KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 30, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:19WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 45, up 28Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 10:12WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.7%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:22WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:43KENT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.9%97% to makeGo for two10.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:28KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.5%97% to makeGo for two13.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:00WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.7%97% to makeGo for two87.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:37WMU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:15WMU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:19KENT Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call0.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWMUDrive 1TD14 plays · 92 yds · 4:4889% → 89%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+10
89.1%
GODDARD, Reece pass incomplete to SANDERS, Luke, PENALTY KENT holding (HINES, Elvis) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2INT TD3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5012% → 11%
KENTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 9:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.2%
George Bollas pass complete to Raekwon James for 13 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
89.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 1 yd to the KntSt 39Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
89.1%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 2 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-1
89.1%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 40Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
89.2%
Derek Adams punt for 38 yds , Darius Phillips returns for no gain to the WMich 21 Darius Phillips fumbled, recovered by KntSt Erik SimpsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4TD1 play · 21 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 5:43
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
87.5%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6TD10 plays · 81 yds · 3:4212% → 17%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
87.7%
George Bollas sacked by Asantay Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 13Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+42
87.6%
George Bollas pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 42 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+14
87.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Chalfonte Butler for 14 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.9%
Justin Rankin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD4 plays · 85 yds · 1:2885% → 87%
Q1 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+10
84.5%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 10 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
86.7%
Derek Adams punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-9
86.5%
Reece Goddard run for a loss of 9 yards to the WMich 22 Reece Goddard fumbled, recovered by WMich Reece GoddardSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 19
OWN 22
+9
86.2%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Anton Curtis for 9 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-6
86.0%
Reece Goddard sacked by Theo Majette for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 25Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+3
85.7%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 46 yds , Raymond James returns for 3 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
WMUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
KENTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 10:05
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
85.5%
Derek Adams punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13FG12 plays · 84 yds · 5:5186% → 87%
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+10
85.4%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 10 yds to the WMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
86.7%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 12 yds to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+14
86.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (Alex Hoag) to the KntSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14INT TD5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5614% → 8%
Q2 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+43
91.8%
George Bollas pass intercepted for a TD Darius Phillips return for 43 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:538% → 8%
WMUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
93.6%
Reece Goddard pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 12 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
92.2%
Derek Adams punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18FG13 plays · 50 yds · 6:0892% → 97%
Q3 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+13
92.6%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Luke Sanders for 13 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+20
92.6%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Anton Curtis for 20 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-6
92.7%
Reece Goddard run for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 17 Reece Goddard fumbled, recovered by WMich Reece GoddardSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 16
OPP 17
-7
92.3%
Reece Goddard sacked by Theo Majette and Jon Cunningham for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
WMUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:10
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
97.6%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21FUMBLE3 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
97.3%
George Bollas run for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 37 George Bollas fumbled, recovered by WMich Drake SpearsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22MISSED FG11 plays · 16 yds · 4:2498% → 99%
Q3 3:36
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+11
97.6%
Reece Goddard pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 11 yds to the KntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
98.4%
GODDARD, Reece sacked for loss of 2 yards to the KENT23 (McKAY, Anthony;MOORE, Marques), PENALTY WMU holding (OKORAFOR, Chuke) 10 yards to the KENT31, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23FUMBLE TD7 plays · 2 yds · 3:331% → 0%
Q4 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+14
98.6%
George Bollas pass complete to James Alexander for 14 yds James Alexander fumbled, forced by Darius Phillips, recovered by KntSt Kesean Gamble for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
98.5%
RANKIN, Justin rush for loss of 1 yard to the KENT34, out-of-bounds (CLAIBORNE, Stef), PENALTY KENT holding (PRICE, Kavious) 10 yards to the KENT25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 16
OWN 29
-7
98.6%
George Bollas sacked by Caleb Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 22Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+23
99.9%
Derek Adams run for a loss of 7 yards Derek Adams fumbled, forced by Najee Clayton, recovered by WMich A.J. Thomas , return for 23 yds, (Josh Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WMUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:11
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Trey Harrell for 1 yd to the KntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 27TD2 plays · 49 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
KENTDrive 28TD7 plays · 76 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+12
100.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Justin Rankin for 12 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:19
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+2
100.0%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 48 yds , Mike Carrigan returns for 2 yds to the KntSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 7:36
Josh Grant 42 yd FG GOOD
+4.9
TD · Q2 1:37
George Bollas pass intercepted for a TD Darius Phillips return for 43 yds for a TD, (Josh Grant KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q1 1:28
Justin Rankin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
-2.5