Try the model
EMU

Eastern Michigan 30 at Central Michigan 42

CMU
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2017 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:14 · Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense+17.8Garbage-time factor+5.6Score differential+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Pregame prior−1.8Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:00: Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +9.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:18: Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +10.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:11: Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK) — CMU win probability +17.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:33: Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 29 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +10.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:24: Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — EMU win probability +25.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:46CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19CMU 4th & 1 at EMU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35EMU 4th & 11 at CMU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:53CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:11EMU 4th & 17 at EMU 18, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:39CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 48, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:14EMU 4th & 8 at CMU 32, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:33CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:34CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 18, up 18
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:33CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 33, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:24CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 48, up 5
    Close callPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:27EMU 4th & 28 at EMU 7, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:14CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 4:45CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:26CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:00CMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:18CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:42EMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:11CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:33EMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:24EMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:48CMU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
45.2%
Shane Morris sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 9 yards Shane Morris fumbled, recovered by EMich Maxx Crosby , return for 0 yards , return for 14 yds, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
45.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+7
45.2%
Shane Morris run for 7 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
45.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 7 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
45.2%
Shane Morris run for 5 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-11
45.2%
Shane Morris sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 11 yards to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 21
OWN 36
+8
45.2%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 8 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
45.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q1 14:46
4TH & 13
OWN 44
+3
45.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds , Blake Banham returns for 3 yds to the EMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
44.6%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Alex Briones return for 7 yds to the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2245% → 45%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
45.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the EMich 11Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
45.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the EMich 7Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
45.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the EMich 6Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
44.8%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the EMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
44.1%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the EMich 6Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+4
44.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
44.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for no gain to the EMich 10Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
44.4%
Jake Julien punt for 52 yds, downed at the CMich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:4344% → 49%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
43.9%
Tony Poljan run for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
44.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
44.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 43 yds to the EMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
45.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the EMich 4Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
47.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
47.0%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
47.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+5
48.0%
Jake Julien punt for 56 yds , Mark Chapman returns for 5 yds to the CMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
52.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 79 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 5:4648% → 50%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
51.7%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+12
51.5%
Shaq Vann run for 12 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
51.1%
Shaq Vann run for 6 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-2
50.7%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 46Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+11
51.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 11 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
50.4%
Blake Banham run for no gain to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
51.6%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
52.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 11 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
50.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
50.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 10 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
50.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
50.8%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
51.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Isaac Holder, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
50.4%
Paul Fricano 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3552% → 64%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
52.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
52.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 2 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
51.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
52.9%
Romello Ross run for 14 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
53.8%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the EMich 47Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+34
53.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 34 yds to the EMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
53.9%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Jason BeckSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
53.9%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the EMich 12Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
63.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11INT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
61.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 9 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
60.6%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.1%
Shaq Vann run for no gain to the EMich 36Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
61.5%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
62.4%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Sean Bunting return for no gain to the EMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:5665% → 76%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
65.4%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the EMich 46Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+27
65.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 27 yds to the EMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
65.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+6
65.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the EMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
65.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
65.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the EMich 4Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3626% → 34%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
73.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Mitch Stanitzek) to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
72.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 6 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
71.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
71.6%
Blake Banham run for 5 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
71.4%
Blake Banham run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
72.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete, broken up by Chris KantzavelosSimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+10
73.2%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete, PENALTY CMU holding (BUNTING,Sean) 10 yards to the CMU31, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
70.9%
Shaq Vann run for 9 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+22
65.9%
Shaq Vann run for 22 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
70.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
70.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Sean Bunting return for no gain to the CMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
71.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-14
72.3%
Shane Morris sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 14 yards to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+12
69.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 9
OWN 37
-5
69.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+12
69.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 49 yds , Isaac Holder returns for 12 yds to the EMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
71.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
70.5%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+47
70.8%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Josh Cox return for 47 yds to the EMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.6%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the EMich 26Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
83.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 1 yd to the EMich 27Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
84.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the EMich 22Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-4
84.2%
Brogan Roback sacked by Alex Briones for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 18Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+3
84.2%
Jake Julien punt for 33 yds , Amari Coleman returns for 3 yds to the CMich 21 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Da'Quaun Jamison) to the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
90.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
90.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
90.1%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Juan GiraldoSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
89.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
88.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 7 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
88.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
87.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
50
+4
87.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
87.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+7
87.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 7 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
86.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-1
86.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
87.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
88.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0093% → 91%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
93.2%
Romello Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+5
93.0%
Shane Morris run for 5 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-9
93.3%
Shane Morris sacked by Jeremiah Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 27Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 15
OWN 27
-4
91.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 47 yds , Isaac Holder returns for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 23 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Paul Fricano) to the EMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:277% → 6%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
93.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+16
93.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 16 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.5%
Shaq Vann run for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
93.1%
Shaq Vann run for 8 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
93.1%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
93.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Shaq VannSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+5
93.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 5 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
93.6%
Brogan Roback punt for 50 yds, downed at the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
96.1%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 3 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
96.1%
Romello Ross run for no gain to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+5
96.0%
Shane Morris run for 5 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+3
95.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds , Isaac Holder returns for 3 yds to the EMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:554% → 16%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
95.7%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Jaron, PENALTY CMU pass interference (BUNTING,Sean) 15 yards to the CMU40, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
95.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 7 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
94.9%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
83.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 29 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.1%
Romello Ross run for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
89.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremiah HarrisSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
88.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:1413% → 40%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
87.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 21 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
85.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 6 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
85.5%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
60.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
80.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+11
80.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Corey Willis for 11 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
82.5%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
82.4%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
81.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Kyle RachwalSimilar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
80.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 37 yds, downed at the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · -8 yds · 0:0026% → 23%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
73.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 7 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+3
71.9%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
73.3%
Brogan Roback sacked by D'Andre Dill for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 19Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+10
74.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 10 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
73.6%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
75.9%
ROBACK, Brogan punt 59 yards to the CMU12, downed, PENALTY EMU substitution infraction 5 yards to the EMU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-17
76.4%
JULIEN, Jake punt 60 yards to the CMU16, downed, PENALTY EMU illegal shift 17 yards to the EMU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 28
OWN 7
0
77.2%
Jake Julien punt for 63 yds , Amari Coleman returns for no gain to the CMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2692% → 92%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
91.6%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
92.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 8 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-6
93.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
92.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 31INT TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:1510% → 2%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
90.1%
Brogan Roback run for 8 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+33
98.0%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted for a TD Amari Coleman return for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
98.2%
Brogan Roback run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
98.3%
Blake Banham run for no gain to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+18
98.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 18 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:24
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-25
TD · Q3 11:11
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q4 9:33
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 29 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com