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BGSU

Bowling Green 28 at Buffalo 38

BUF
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 7, 2017 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Joseph Davidson punt for 40 yds BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Buff 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+14.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: Andrew Clair run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:09: Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 37 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +9.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:14: Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:04: Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +20.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 8:53: Theo Anderson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +13.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:38BUF 4th & 2 at BGSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:11BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BGSU 4th & 6 at BUF 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:19BUF 4th & 1 at midfield, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:22BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%−2.0
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−7.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:31BUF 4th & 7 at BGSU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:31BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:32BUF 4th & 6 at BGSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:50BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:43BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:29BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:11BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:41BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:20BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:27BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:36BGSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:09BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:14BGSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:04BGSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:53BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
64.6%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-1
64.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
64.6%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+30
64.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 yds BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
64.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 1 yd to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
64.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
64.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+5
64.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
64.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
64.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
50
+1
64.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
64.6%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
64.3%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+2
64.3%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 6 Josh Cleveland fumbled, forced by Justin Brandon, recovered by Buff Justin BrandonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3665% → 67%
Q1 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
65.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:2034% → 37%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
66.2%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
66.2%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
66.2%
Jarret Doege run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
66.1%
Jarret Doege sacked by Chris Ford for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+3
66.3%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+19
66.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 19 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
65.8%
Josh Cleveland run for 19 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
65.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Matthew Wilcox Jr. for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+1
65.4%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+29
62.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 29 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2164% → 69%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
63.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 51 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
65.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
68.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0333% → 33%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Josh ClevelandSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
67.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
67.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 8 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
67.2%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 0:4568% → 72%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
67.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+14
67.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 14 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+69
72.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 69 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2129% → 28%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
71.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+7
70.9%
Andrew Clair run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
70.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 4 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
70.7%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-3
71.2%
Jarret Doege run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
72.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
73.1%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+12
73.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Andrew Gray for 12 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
73.6%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
73.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 9 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
73.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 9 yds to the Buff 46 Emmanuel Reed fumbled, forced by Marcus Milton, recovered by BwGrn Marcus MiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
71.8%
Scott Miller run for 4 yds to the Buff 41 Scott Miller fumbled, forced by Charles Harris, recovered by Buff Jarrett FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
75.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 2 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
75.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
75.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 1
50
0
74.7%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 41 yds , Marcus Milton returns for no gain to the BwGrn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
74.5%
[SGUN], CLAIR, Andrew rush for 12 yards to the BGSU21 (WILLIAMSON, Rya;OTWINOWSKI, Mat), PENALTY BGSU holding (BRIGHT, Caleb) 4 yards to the BGSU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 14
OWN 5
-1
74.5%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+4
74.7%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+5
74.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 5 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
74.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FUMBLE
12 plays · 58 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
77.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+30
77.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 30 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
77.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 9 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
77.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
77.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
76.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
77.8%
[PSTL], REED, Emmanuel rush for 12 yards to the BGSU3, out-of-bounds (GARTH, Fred), PENALTY UB holding (JACK-KURDYLA, T) 10 yards to the BGSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
77.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 20
OPP 25
+9
77.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 9 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+11
77.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 11 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
77.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
77.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the BwGrn 2 Emmanuel Reed fumbled, forced by Brandon Harris, recovered by BwGrn Gus SchwietermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 98 yds · 3:1222% → 34%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
78.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+17
78.6%
Andrew Clair run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
77.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 20 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
76.8%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
76.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 4 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+7
76.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 7 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
75.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
75.8%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
75.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+8
75.4%
Josh Cleveland run for 8 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
74.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 4 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+14
74.7%
[SGUN], DOEGE, Jarret pass incomplete to REDDING, Teo, PENALTY UB pass interference (GREEN, Kobe) 14 yards to the UB2, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
74.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Datrin Guyton, broken up by Brandon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.7%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
72.1%
Theo Anderson run for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:4673% → 85%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
72.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 13 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
73.2%
Theo Anderson run for 26 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
75.0%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+37
84.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 37 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:5019% → 32%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
80.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
79.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 2 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
80.1%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
80.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
79.7%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
79.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
80.7%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
79.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Hunter Folkertsma, broken up by Ryan WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
68.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19MISSED FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 3:3574% → 78%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
74.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+11
73.9%
Theo Anderson run for 11 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
74.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 11 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
76.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
75.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Montre GregorySimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
74.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, substitution infraction (Andrew Gray) to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+16
73.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 16 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
76.7%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+28
76.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 28 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
77.1%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+5
77.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 5 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
76.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
78.0%
Adam Mitcheson 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.8%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Teo Redding, broken up by Ryan WilliamsonSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-6
74.1%
Jarret Doege sacked by Demone Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+28
75.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 28 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
72.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-3
70.9%
Jarret Doege run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
72.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+16
74.3%
Joseph Davidson punt for 37 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 16 yds to the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 5:2979% → 87%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
78.6%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+20
80.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 20 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
80.7%
Kameron Pickett run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
80.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+9
79.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 9 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
81.1%
Kameron Pickett run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
81.1%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+5
80.0%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
85.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Anthony Johnson) to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
85.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Montre GregorySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+2
85.4%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+7
86.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 7 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
86.6%
Adam Mitcheson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:1914% → 37%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
86.0%
Andrew Clair run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
50
+39
84.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 39 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
83.0%
Andrew Clair run for 7 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Demone Harris) to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:0573% → 91%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
73.0%
Theo Anderson run for 7 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+7
75.3%
Theo Anderson run for 7 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
75.4%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to NUNN, Antonio (GREGORY, Montre), PENALTY BGSU unsportsmanlike conduct (HARPER, Jonah) 15 yards to the BGSU38, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
76.1%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+15
76.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 15 yds to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
77.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+13
77.5%
Theo Anderson run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
91.3%
Theo Anderson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
89.5%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
90.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Matthew Wilcox Jr., broken up by Khalil HodgeSimilar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-5
91.1%
[PUNT], DAVIDSON, Joe rush for 6 yards to the BGSU32 (BAKER, Roy), PENALTY BGSU illegal formation 5 yards to the BGSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
91.4%
Joseph Davidson punt for 47 yds, downed at the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2892% → 93%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
91.8%
Theo Anderson run for 11 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
92.3%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
92.3%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
93.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+4
92.7%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 34 yds , Marcus Milton returns for 4 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26FUMBLE
11 plays · 48 yds · 0:005% → 7%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
94.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 4 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
94.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
94.2%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
94.3%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
94.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 18 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
93.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 8 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
93.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Matthew Wilcox Jr.Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+21
93.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 21 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Janarvis PoughSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
92.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
93.4%
Jarret Doege sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 30 Jarret Doege fumbled, recovered by Buff Chibueze Onwuka , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4596% → 96%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
95.5%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
95.5%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
96.3%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:04
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
-20.4
TD · Q4 8:53
Theo Anderson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q3 10:14
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com