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AKR

Akron 14 at Miami (OH) 24

M-OH
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 7, 2017 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Nick Gasser punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+24.3Home team on offense−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:28: Kato Nelson pass incomplete — AKR win probability +5.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:14: Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 7 yds to the MiaOh 49 — M-OH win probability +6.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:45: Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 30 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +9.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:34: Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 19 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +8.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:09: Kato Nelson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 30 yds for a TD, (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +10.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 6AKR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05AKR 4th & 7 at M-OH 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:59M-OH 4th & 4 at AKR 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%−0.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:09AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:17AKR 4th & 2 at M-OH 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00M-OH 4th & 1 at AKR 11, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%−1.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−7.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:56AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:50M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:16AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:39AKR 4th & 16 at AKR 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:43M-OH 4th & 19 at AKR 35, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:36AKR 4th & 10 at M-OH 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:05M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:58AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:56AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:05M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:45M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:34M-OH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:09AKR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.3%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
81.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
81.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.3%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
81.3%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
81.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:3219% → 21%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
80.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 14 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
80.5%
Kato Nelson run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
80.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Deltron Sands for 2 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+11
80.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 11 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
80.5%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
80.5%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
80.5%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
79.5%
Nick Gasser 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3INT
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
79.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 19 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
79.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 5 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
80.1%
Kenny Young run for 12 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+41
80.2%
Gus Ragland pass intercepted Shawn Featherstone return for 41 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:3322% → 25%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
78.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Manny MorganSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
78.4%
Manny Morgan run for no gain to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+17
78.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 17 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
78.3%
Manny Morgan run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+10
78.3%
Manny Morgan run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.6%
Kato Nelson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4676% → 78%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
75.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+10
75.7%
Kenny Young run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
76.1%
Gus Ragland run for 11 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
76.4%
Jaylon Bester run for 8 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-5
76.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 43Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+19
76.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 19 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
76.8%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
76.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Kyron BrownSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
78.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 19 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:5923% → 24%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
76.7%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 4Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+6
76.8%
Manny Morgan run for 6 yds to the Akron 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+10
76.7%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to WOLF, Austin (HARDING, Heath), PENALTY MIAMI holding (HARDING, Heath) 10 yards to the AKRON20, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.2%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the Akron 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
76.2%
Manny Morgan run for 7 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
76.2%
Kato Nelson run for 4 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.0%
Manny Morgan run for no gain to the Akron 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
76.1%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+7
76.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Manny Morgan for 7 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
76.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
75.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 12 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
76.0%
Kenny Young run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+21
76.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 21 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
77.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
77.4%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
77.2%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
76.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
73.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 16 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
73.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
72.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-3
73.3%
Kato Nelson sacked by Tony Reid for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
74.7%
Nick Gasser punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5574% → 75%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
74.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
74.5%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
74.5%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
75.5%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Kyron BrownSimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+9
73.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 9 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.2%
Gus Ragland pass intercepted Jordan George return for no gain to the Akron 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1130% → 33%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
69.7%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
70.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 7 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+13
69.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
50
-7
67.7%
Kato Nelson sacked by Doug Costin for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 43Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+11
69.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 11 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+4
68.1%
Kato Nelson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
67.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete, broken up by Ikeem AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:1474% → 76%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
73.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 7 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+13
74.1%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to MARTIN, Sam, dropped pass, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 13 yards to the AKRON38, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
74.4%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the Akron 37Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+17
74.1%
Kenny Young run for 17 yds to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
74.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Kyron BrownSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+9
73.7%
Gus Ragland run for 9 yds to the Akron 11Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+28
75.7%
Samuel Sloman 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.0%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
74.3%
Manny Morgan run for 9 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
73.6%
Manny Morgan run for 1 yd to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
73.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Manny MorganSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
73.9%
Manny Morgan run for 2 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
74.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
75.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
74.8%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+1
74.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
73.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
72.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 43 yds, downed at the Akron 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
72.7%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-2
72.3%
Kato Nelson sacked by Doug Costin and Ikeem Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 29Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
74.0%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
75.0%
Nick Gasser punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 3:0374% → 87%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
74.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 8 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+23
75.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 23 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
76.9%
Kenny Young run for 7 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
77.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.5%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
86.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 30 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
84.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre Williams, broken up by Brad KoenigSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
84.8%
Manny Morgan run for 5 yds to the Akron 17Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+6
85.4%
Kato Nelson run for 6 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
84.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to A.J. Coney, broken up by Deondre DanielsSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
84.6%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-9
85.2%
Kato Nelson sacked by Pasquale Calcagno for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 17Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
86.0%
Nick Gasser punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:1087% → 96%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
86.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 20 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
87.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 2 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+9
87.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 9 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
87.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Nate Becker for 6 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
87.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the Akron 24Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
86.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 5 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
95.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 19 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:195% → 17%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
95.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete, broken up by Ikeem AllenSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
95.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for no gain to the Akron 15 AKRON Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+19
95.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 19 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
94.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 10 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
94.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 8 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+18
94.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 18 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
83.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 30 yds for a TD, (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:2288% → 88%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
87.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 10 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
88.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 1 yd to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
88.2%
Kenny Young run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
88.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 17 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
89.0%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete, PENALTY AKRON holding (WOODSON, Thomas) 10 yards to the AKRON26, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
89.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
89.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-10
88.4%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete MIAMI OH Penalty, intentional grounding (Gus Ragland) to the Akron 35Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 19
OPP 35
0
88.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
91.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 3 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
91.2%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
91.6%
MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ikeem Allen) to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
89.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 8 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+6
89.1%
Kato Nelson run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Manny Morgan, broken up by Tony ReidSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-7
88.9%
Kato Nelson sacked by Junior McMullen and Doug Costin for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+18
91.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 18 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
88.6%
Kato Nelson sacked by Doug Costin for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+6
89.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 6 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
89.1%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
90.4%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4694% → 95%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
93.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
93.7%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+1
93.7%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
95.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 47 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
96.6%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
96.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
96.8%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
96.8%
Nick Gasser punt for 55 yds, downed at the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5096% → 97%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
96.2%
Kenny Young run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+15
96.7%
AKRON Penalty, personal foul (Brian Bell) to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 43Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:09
Kato Nelson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 30 yds for a TD, (Nick Gasser KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q3 6:45
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 30 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q3 0:34
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 19 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com