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NIU

Northern Illinois 17 at Toledo 27

TOL
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2017 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:28 · Bailey Flint punt for 49 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 188Pregame prior+0.6Home team on offense+25.5Garbage-time factor+16.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Score differential+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:04: Jameson Vest 23 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +3.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:23: Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +12.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:55: Terry Swanson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +12.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:02: Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +12.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:09: Christian Hagan 25 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +5.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 8:52NIU 4th & 10 at TOL 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25TOL 4th & 14 at TOL 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:39NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:16TOL 4th & 8 at NIU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:59NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:26TOL 4th & 7 at NIU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:10TOL 4th & 1 at NIU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−2.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:04TOL 4th & 6 at NIU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:52NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:43NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:36TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 26, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:09NIU 4th & 7 at TOL 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−8.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:58TOL 4th & 4 at NIU 17, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.4%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−10.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:01NIU 4th & 4 at TOL 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:56TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:46NIU 4th & 7 at TOL 30, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:28TOL 4th & 11 at NIU 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:07TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:39NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:23NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:55TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:02TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:4873% → 74%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
73.1%
Terry Swanson run for 12 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.0%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
72.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+30
72.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 30 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
73.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+24
73.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Drew Rosi for 24 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
73.0%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
73.7%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:0827% → 26%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
73.4%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
73.4%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.4%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
73.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+20
73.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Chad Beebe for 20 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
73.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 5 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
73.0%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
73.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 5
OPP 35
-5
73.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Trayshon Foster) to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
73.7%
Matt Ference punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2774% → 74%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
73.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 10Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
73.8%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+22
73.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 22 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
74.0%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 32 Logan Woodside fumbled, recovered by Toled Terry SwansonSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-2
73.9%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
73.7%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
73.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:4126% → 30%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
73.8%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+28
73.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 28 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
73.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+11
73.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 11 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+6
73.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 6 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
72.7%
Christian Blake pass complete to Marcus Childers for 10 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
72.7%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+4
72.7%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
72.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 3 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
73.1%
D.J. Brown run for 3 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.6%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:5971% → 70%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+42
71.4%
Art Thompkins run for 27 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
71.6%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
71.5%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
71.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
70.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, downed at the NoIll 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:5031% → 33%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
69.5%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 2Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+6
69.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 6 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+5
69.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ja'Wuan Woodley) to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
69.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+10
69.1%
Marcus Jones run for 10 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
68.7%
Marcus Childers run for 22 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
67.3%
Marcus Jones run for 7 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+1
66.6%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
66.8%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
67.3%
Matt Ference punt for 45 yds, downed at the Toled 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:2069% → 71%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+89
68.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 89 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
71.3%
Logan Woodside run for 9 yds Logan Woodside fumbled, forced by Jawuan Johnson, recovered by NoIll Mycial AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3132% → 31%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
67.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
67.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
67.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+17
68.7%
Matt Ference punt for 49 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for 17 yds to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2970% → 68%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
69.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 10 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
70.6%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
70.3%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
70.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
68.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10INT
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:0733% → 37%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
66.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 18 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
66.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Luke Shively) to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+3
66.8%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+8
66.7%
Marcus Childers run for 8 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+7
65.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 7 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
64.0%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
63.4%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
62.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+12
61.9%
Tre Harbison run for 12 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
61.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
61.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Nathan Veloz) to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
62.9%
Marcus Childers pass intercepted Trevon Mathis return for no gain to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 4:4368% → 71%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
67.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 16 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
69.7%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
70.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
69.4%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+11
68.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 11 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
70.3%
Logan Woodside run for 9 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
70.2%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+13
69.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
69.9%
Diontae Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.8%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
69.0%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
71.1%
Jameson Vest 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3831% → 31%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
69.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
69.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:2231% → 48%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
69.3%
Marcus Jones run for 29 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+17
67.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Chad Beebe for 17 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Marcus JonesSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
65.3%
Marcus Jones run for 14 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
64.9%
Tre Harbison run for 19 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.5%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1858% → 74%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
57.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
50
0
60.5%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
50
+23
59.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 23 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
62.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 5 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+1
61.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+7
59.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
61.6%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
74.0%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4432% → 29%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
68.5%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-6
69.3%
Marcus Childers sacked by DeDarallo Blue for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 19Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
70.9%
Matt Ference punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:3872% → 86%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
72.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+31
72.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Darryl Richards for 31 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
74.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+2
74.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+1
74.1%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 17Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+5
72.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ben LeRoy) to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
73.8%
Logan Woodside sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 16Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+15
73.0%
Terry Swanson run for 15 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0918% → 15%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
82.6%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
84.0%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
84.6%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Diontae Johnson at the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5384% → 84%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
84.2%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
84.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+3
84.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 3 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
84.2%
TEAM punt blocked by Jackson Abresch blocked by Jackson AbreschSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5119% → 22%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
81.5%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
81.5%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
83.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
77.8%
Christian Hagan 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 5:0785% → 89%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.2%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
85.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
85.7%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+20
86.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 20 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
87.8%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+15
88.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 15 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
88.7%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
88.7%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the NoIll 19Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+2
88.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 2 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
89.0%
Jameson Vest 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:4910% → 10%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
89.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 30 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
87.2%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-5
87.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+10
90.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 10 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
89.8%
Marcus Childers pass intercepted Trevon Mathis return for no gain to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0491% → 92%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
91.2%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
91.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 3 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-2
92.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
92.4%
Michael Julian punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23MISSED FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:066% → 6%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
94.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
94.6%
Marcus Childers run for 9 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
93.9%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
94.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Chad Beebe for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
93.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+6
94.0%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
93.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Holding (DeDarallo Blue) to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
93.1%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
92.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
94.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
94.4%
Christian Hagan 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1094% → 96%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
94.3%
Terry Swanson run for 22 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.3%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
96.0%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
96.4%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-10
96.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
95.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:013% → 4%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
97.0%
Marcus Childers sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+12
97.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 12 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
97.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 5 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
97.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 12 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
96.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 5 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+8
96.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 8 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
96.3%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+15
96.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Chad Beebe for 15 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:02
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q3 13:23
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 8:55
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com