2017 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2017 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreBALL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:35 · Morgan Hagee punt for 44 yds, downed at the EMich 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:56: Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:40: Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 74 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +2.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:59: Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +3.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:40: Shaq Vann run for 21 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:36: Shaq Vann run for 21 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q1 10:34BALL 4th & 17 at EMU 33, tiedClose callPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.114% to convertField goal7.4%49% to makePuntTheir call7.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q2 12:52BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 24, down 14Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:35BALL 4th & 4 at EMU 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.147% to convertField goalTheir call3.6%68% to makePunt2.3%−1.3average punt
- Q2 0:07EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 31, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%average punt
- Q3 9:35BALL 4th & 6 at EMU 47, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 13:45EMU 4th & 6 at BALL 41, up 35Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%40% to convertField goal99.8%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:35BALL 4th & 7 at EMU 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%62% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:35EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 35, up 35Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:06EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:48BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.5%97% to makeGo for two7.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:15EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:56EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:40EMU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:59BALL Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.1%97% to makeGo for two7.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:40EMU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:36EMU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:39EMU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:56EMU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBALLDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD2 plays · 31 yds · 0:2993% → 93%
BALLDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:187% → 8%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
92.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Khalil Newton for 25 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4FUMBLE2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
92.4%
Brogan Roback sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 26 Brogan Roback fumbled, recovered by BalSt Jacob White , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 10:34
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-5
92.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Malik Dunner for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6TD17 plays · 94 yds · 7:1092% → 92%
Q1 8:25
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
91.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 7 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
92.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 6 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+6
91.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 6 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
91.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 20 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:099% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8TD6 plays · 53 yds · 1:5092% → 94%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+18
91.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 18 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
91.7%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Jaron, PENALTY BALL pass interference (COSBY, Bryce) 13 yards to the BALL3, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 12:52
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
92.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
92.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Nolan Givan, broken up by Justin MoodySimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
93.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD2 plays · 77 yds · 0:4493% → 96%
BALLDrive 11TD9 plays · 71 yds · 3:344% → 8%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
95.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 29 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
95.6%
Justin Hall run for 7 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Vince Calhoun) to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+16
95.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Brennan Gillis for 16 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12TD10 plays · 73 yds · 3:1293% → 97%
Q2 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+15
93.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 15 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
93.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 44Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+20
93.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 20 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+11
93.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 11 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Josh MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13MISSED FG6 plays · 36 yds · 1:564% → 4%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
96.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 30 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2898% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:2497% → 100%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+20
97.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 20 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+15
97.4%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BAILEY, Sergio (MILLER, Josh), PENALTY BALL pass interference (MILLER, Josh) 15 yards to the BALL23, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 1:541% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17TD12 plays · 97 yds · 5:44100% → 100%
Q3 7:23
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+36
99.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 36 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18FUMBLE9 plays · 30 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
99.9%
HUNTLEY, Caleb rush for 4 yards to the BALL19 (HOYING, Brody), PENALTY BALL illegal formation 5 yards to the BALL10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+11
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 11 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Khalil Newton for 31 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-11
99.9%
Drew Plitt sacked by Jeremiah Harris for a loss of 11 yards to the BalSt 45 Drew Plitt fumbled, recovered by EMich Maxx Crosby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+7
99.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 7 yds to the BalSt 38 BALL ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-5
99.9%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Jeremy Hickey) to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Ivan Oraha punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Riley Miller at the BalSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20MISSED FG14 plays · 63 yds · 6:000% → 0%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
100.0%
HURT, Markice rush for no gain to the BALL10 (VALASTI, Ville), PENALTY BALL holding 5 yards to the BALL5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+10
100.0%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to NEWTON, Khalil (McGILL, Kevin), PENALTY EMU holding (McGILL, Kevin) 10 yards to the BALL17, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Khalil Newton for 19 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Brennan Gillis, broken up by Kevin McGillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:35
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Jake Julien punt for 49 yds , Justin Hall returns for no gain to the BalSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22INT TD3 plays · 11 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+46
100.0%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted for a TD Jeff Hubbard return for 46 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23Uncategorized6 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:40
Shaq Vann run for 21 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q2 6:59
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q2 10:40
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 74 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
+2.8