Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 28 at Ohio 45

OHIO
2017 · Week 10 · Oct 31, 2017 · Peden Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:34 · Michael Farkas punt for 36 yds, downed at the MiaOh 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense+8.7Pregame prior+5.4Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:13: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 14 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +9.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:17: Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 3 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +10.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:15: Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 25 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +20.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:29: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 11 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +21.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:42: Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 8M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 4:05OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00OHIO 4th & 10 at M-OH 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:52M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:13OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:08M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:55M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:01OHIO 4th & 9 at M-OH 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:06M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:34OHIO 4th & 11 at M-OH 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:29M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 46, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:42OHIO 4th & 6 at M-OH 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:02M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:48OHIO 4th & 1 at M-OH 19, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%−1.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−4.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:58M-OH 4th & 5 at OHIO 31, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:55OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 48, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:20OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:20OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:11M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:02M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:57OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:13OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:17M-OH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:15M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:29OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:42OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4063% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
63.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 11 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
63.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
63.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 6 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
63.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
63.4%
Rourke, Nathan pass incomplete to Cope, Brendan, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference 15 yards to the MIAMI31, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
63.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+18
63.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 18 yds to the MiaOh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
63.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 3 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
64.5%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 22 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
64.3%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
64.3%
Billy Bahl pass intercepted Javon Hagan return for no gain to the Ohio 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:3865% → 69%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+39
65.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Troy Mangen for 39 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
68.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 40 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:0232% → 35%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
67.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-5
67.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 14
OWN 19
-5
67.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 19
OWN 14
-2
67.9%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+30
68.0%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 30 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
67.6%
BAHL, Billy pass incomplete to MURPHY, Jared (Nelson, Kylan), PENALTY OHIO pass interference 15 yards to the OHIO43, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
67.3%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 11 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
67.0%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Kenny Young for 7 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+11
66.9%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 11 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
64.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 14 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
66.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 1 yd to the Ohio 24Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
66.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
66.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Brendan Cope, broken up by Tony ReidSimilar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
65.8%
Michael Farkas punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:1134% → 40%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
65.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 7 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+22
65.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 22 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
64.9%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 9 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
60.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 16 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:5664% → 63%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
63.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 12 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
63.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 21 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.8%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
64.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
64.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
63.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
62.1%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
62.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+25
62.3%
Billy Bahl pass intercepted Jalen Fox return for 25 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4866% → 71%
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
65.5%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 7 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
68.6%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 16 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Jamal HudsonSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
68.0%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 11
OWN 43
-3
69.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 38 yds , Kylan Nelson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
69.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+3
69.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
69.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for no gain to the Ohio 22Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
68.4%
Michael Farkas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
69.9%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
69.0%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Bradd EllisSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
69.8%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+43
70.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OHIO 17 OHIO Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 4:5771% → 82%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+28
71.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 28 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
72.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 9 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-1
73.1%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
72.5%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+5
71.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
73.0%
Dorian Brown run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+4
73.3%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
73.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Brendan Cope, broken up by Tony ReidSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
73.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+12
72.5%
Nathan Rourke run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
73.3%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
82.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 14 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
81.9%
OHIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Ohio 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 1:4820% → 32%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
80.5%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 6 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
80.0%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Ryan Smith, broken up by Kylan NelsonSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+11
80.6%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 11 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.1%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Bradd EllisSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
80.4%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+34
80.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 34 yds to the Ohio 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
78.3%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 5 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+10
79.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 10 yds to the Ohio 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
78.6%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Kenny Young for 3 yds to the Ohio 3Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.2%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 3 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15MISSED FG
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:1175% → 76%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
75.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 12 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
75.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Troy Mangen for 6 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+51
76.0%
Louie Zervos 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
71.2%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
70.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 5 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-1
70.1%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
71.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 39 yds, downed at the Ohio 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
73.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
50
+3
75.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-2
75.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
73.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Brendan Cope, broken up by Deondre DanielsSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
71.7%
Michael Farkas punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
72.5%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
72.6%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
73.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Jalen FoxSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+7
74.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds , Kylan Nelson returns for 7 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0078% → 75%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
77.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
77.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
77.0%
OHIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
76.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
74.5%
Michael Farkas punt for 36 yds, downed at the MiaOh 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 4:1626% → 49%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
73.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 13 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
73.2%
Kenny Young run for no gain to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
73.5%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+23
74.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 23 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
71.1%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
71.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 13 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
69.9%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Kenny Young for 5 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+13
72.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 13 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.1%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Alonzo SmithSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
50.6%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 25 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4662% → 87%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
61.6%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 34Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-5
61.5%
OHIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 29Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
60.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+21
58.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
50
+12
65.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 12 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
65.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 27 yds to the MiaOh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
86.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 11 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2321% → 19%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
78.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
78.3%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-5
79.6%
Billy Bahl sacked by Andrew Payne for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+5
81.0%
KRAMER, Kyle punt 35 yards to the OHIO40, Nelson, Kylan return to the OHIO44 (BANKS, Travion;BARATTI, Bart), PENALTY OHIO roughing the kicker 5 yards to the MIAMI30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
80.6%
Kyle Kramer punt for 39 yds, downed at the Ohio 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:2185% → 96%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+15
85.0%
Rourke, Nathan pass incomplete to White, Papi, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference 15 yards to the OHIO46, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY, PENALTY MIAMI unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the MIAMI39, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY, PENALTY MIAMI unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the MIAMI24, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
87.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Brendan Cope for 4 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+9
87.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 9 yds to the MiaOh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
87.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
87.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+3
86.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
94.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 21 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
94.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 17 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
93.8%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Ryan SmithSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
93.8%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-5
94.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
94.5%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Alonzo SmithSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
94.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Sam Martin, broken up by Kylan NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 4 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
96.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Dorian BrownSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
95.8%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
95.3%
Michael Farkas punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.8%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Ryan Smith, broken up by Javon HaganSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
94.8%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+8
95.0%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 8 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
94.8%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Bradd EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 27FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2896% → 98%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
96.2%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+10
96.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 10 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+36
97.5%
Louie Zervos 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 28DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 1:503% → 2%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
97.1%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 19 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 4
50
+14
96.6%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 14 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Bradd EllisSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
96.6%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 5 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
96.5%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Sam Martin, broken up by Jalen FoxSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+4
97.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 4 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:5798% → 100%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
98.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Troy Mangen for 4 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
98.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
98.6%
Rourke, Nathan pass incomplete to White, Papi, PENALTY MIAMI offside 5 yards to the OHIO39, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
98.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
98.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 48Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Michael Farkas punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
99.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+2
99.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-2
99.3%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:29
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 11 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+21.1
TD · Q3 3:15
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 25 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)
-20.5
TD · Q2 0:17
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 3 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com