2017 · Week 10 · Oct 31, 2017 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:09 · Jake Suder 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:01: Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:24: George Bollas run for 22 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes PAT MISSED) — KENT win probability +6.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:03: Jarret Doege run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +14.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:15: Josh Cleveland run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:16: Will Matthews run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +8.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 8:41BGSU 4th & 8 at KENT 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snapGo for it52.5%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call52.7%87% to makePunt51.0%−1.7average punt
- Q1 8:36KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 47, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snapGo for it47.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%average punt
- Q2 13:28KENT 4th & 2 at BGSU 45, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.7%57% to convertField goal34.8%−2.025% to makePunt35.7%−1.0average punt
- Q2 12:03KENT 4th & 1 at BGSU 26, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.6%71% to convertField goal34.2%−1.564% to makePunt30.7%−4.9average punt
- Q2 11:15BGSU 4th & 15 at BGSU 48, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it58.7%−1.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%average punt
- Q2 7:11BGSU 4th & 12 at KENT 12, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snapGo for it61.3%−0.919% to convertField goalTheir call62.2%86% to makePunt58.0%−4.2average punt
- Q2 1:36KENT 4th & 13 at BGSU 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snapGo for it28.0%−1.117% to convertField goalTheir call29.1%85% to makePunt25.2%−3.9average punt
- Q3 15:00KENT 4th & 6 at BGSU 46, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it33.6%−0.140% to convertField goal32.1%−1.623% to makePuntTheir call33.7%average punt
- Q3 8:19BGSU 4th & 1 at KENT 7, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.4%70% to convertField goal69.5%−2.991% to makePunt61.4%−10.9average punt
- Q3 6:58KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 22, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it14.9%−1.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q4 9:09BGSU 4th & 7 at KENT 11, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%87% to makePunt98.2%−1.1average punt
- Q4 9:03KENT 4th & 7 at BGSU 34, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−<0.137% to convertField goal0.4%47% to makePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:59BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 32, up 28Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%average punt
- Q4 1:40KENT 4th & 9 at BGSU 23, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.2%70% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:11BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.2%97% to makeGo for two51.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:01BGSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.7%97% to makeGo for two61.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:24KENT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call41.0%97% to makeGo for two40.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:03BGSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.8%97% to makeGo for two83.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:15BGSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:16KENT Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.3%97% to makeGo for two5.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:00BGSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4953% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2INT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
BGSUDrive 3FG5 plays · 12 yds · 1:4755% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
45.2%
George Bollas pass complete to Will Matthews for 7 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
45.3%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to HARRELL, Trey, PENALTY BGSU offside defense (KONOWALSKI, D) 5 yards to the KENT35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
45.4%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to RANKIN, Justin, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (MILTON, Marcus) 8 yards to the KENT43, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+11
45.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Will Matthews for 11 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
45.3%
Derek Adams punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Milton at the BwGrn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD8 plays · 90 yds · 3:0256% → 65%
KENTDrive 6TD20 plays · 75 yds · 5:3236% → 40%
Q1 1:56
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+10
36.0%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to WHITE, Kris (STEPHENS, Clint), PENALTY BGSU holding (STEPHENS, Clint) 10 yards to the KENT32, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
36.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Will Matthews for 15 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
37.3%
George Bollas sacked by Brian Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
-1
35.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+12
35.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 12 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+10
34.8%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 10 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
35.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
40.3%
George Bollas run for 22 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
36.6%
Jarret Doege sacked by Jim Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the KENTST 46 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, intentional grounding (Jarret Doege) to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 17
OWN 46
-6
37.4%
Jarret Doege sacked by Jim Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
BGSUDrive 9FG5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5765% → 69%
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
35.4%
CLEVELAND, Josh rush for 4 yards to the KENT3 (JONES, Jim), PENALTY BGSU illegal formation 5 yards to the KENT12, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10FG14 plays · 62 yds · 5:3531% → 32%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
31.1%
George Bollas sacked by Kyle Junior for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 21Similar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
32.2%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 9 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
32.8%
George Bollas sacked by Nate Locke for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11END OF HALF7 plays · 22 yds · 1:0868% → 71%
Q2 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+9
32.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 9 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
31.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 2 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
31.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Matthew Wilcox Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
31.5%
Will Matthews run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13TD15 plays · 80 yds · 6:2069% → 89%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
31.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 2 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+35
31.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 35 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+9
29.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+1
29.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the KntSt 25 KENT ST Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the KntSt 25Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-6
29.3%
Jarret Doege sacked by Jon Cunningham for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 31Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-5
29.0%
Jarret Doege run for 5 yds to the KntSt 7 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (Teo Redding) to the KntSt 17Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+10
29.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Andrew Clair for 10 yds to the KntSt 7Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
25.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Hunter Folkertsma, broken up by Jamal ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 6:58
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+1
14.8%
Derek Adams punt for 44 yds , Marcus Milton returns for 1 yd to the BwGrn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:2590% → 99%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
8.1%
DOEGE, Jarret pass complete to REDDING, Teo for 22 yards to the KENT0, clock 04:11, PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the KENT32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+8
8.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 8 yds to the KntSt 16Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+11
8.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the KntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD13 plays · 81 yds · 3:521% → 9%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
0.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 17 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
1.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 12 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.0%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan, broken up by Marcus MiltonSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
1.0%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Justin Rankin, broken up by Brandon HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+14
1.0%
George Bollas run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 38 George Bollas fumbled, forced by Clint Stephens, recovered by KntSt George Bollas for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+14
1.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 14 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
0.8%
George Bollas sacked by David Konowalski for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+19
0.7%
George Bollas run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (David Konowalski) to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17TD5 plays · 38 yds · 2:0596% → 100%
KENTDrive 18INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
0.6%
George Bollas pass intercepted Marcus Milton return for 22 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20INT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
0.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 16 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
0.3%
BOLLAS, George rush for 2 yards to the BGSU47 (CROSLEN, Josh), PENALTY KENT illegal formation 5 yards to the KENT46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+17
0.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Trey Harrell for 17 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+3
0.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Justin Rankin for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
0.3%
George Bollas pass intercepted Clint Stephens return for no gain to the BwGrn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:59
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+13
0.2%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
0.2%
DENLEY, Bryson rush for 19 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (LAWRENCE-BURKE), PENALTY BGSU holding (BRIGHT, Caleb) 10 yards to the BGSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+14
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 22 yards to the BwGrn 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Joseph Davidson , return for 14 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BGSUDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:03
Jarret Doege run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q1 2:01
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q4 13:16
Will Matthews run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)
+8.1