Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 20 at Akron 21

AKR
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · InfoCision Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:17 · Nick Gasser punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differential
+17.5+8.80−8.8−17.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense−2.1Pregame prior−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score differential−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:50: Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 41 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +10.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:04: Adam Mitcheson 36 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +6.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:25: Emmanuel Reed run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +26.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:14: Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 3 — BUF win probability +12.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:46: Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kevin Gladney for 36 yds for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +36.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 14:55AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:40BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:17BUF 4th & 7 at AKR 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:17AKR 4th & 30 at AKR 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:04BUF 4th & 15 at AKR 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−6.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:53BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:22AKR 4th & 5 at midfield, up 1
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:55BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:23AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−2.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:48BUF 4th & 3 at AKR 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−2.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:14BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 40, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:42BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.9%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:51BUF 4th & 6 at AKR 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−9.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−20.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:10BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:50AKR Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:25BUF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:46AKR Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
43.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 6 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
43.6%
Manny Morgan run for 2 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
43.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. Coney, broken up by Tim RobertsSimilar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
43.6%
Nick Gasser punt for 52 yds, downed at the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+40
43.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 40 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
43.8%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN, KJ, PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the UB34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+3
43.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 17
OWN 37
0
43.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 17
OWN 37
0
44.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
44.0%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:1844% → 46%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
44.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 3 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
44.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+33
44.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 33 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
44.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
44.8%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Van Edwards Jr.Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+25
45.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 25 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
45.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 9Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-11
45.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Brandon Junk for 4 yds to the Buff 5 AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 0
OPP 20
0
45.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
45.6%
Tom O'Leary 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:4055% → 59%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
45.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 20 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
44.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
44.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+25
44.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 25 yds to the Akron 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
44.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
44.1%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN, KJ (BUTLER, Denzel), PENALTY AKRON pass interference 14 yards to the AKRON2, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:1442% → 48%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
42.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 12 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
42.8%
Manny Morgan run for 4 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
43.0%
Manny Morgan run for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+14
43.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 14 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
43.6%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+16
42.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 16 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
48.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Fransohn Bickley for 23 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:3354% → 56%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.2%
Antonio Nunn run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
45.4%
Theo Anderson run for 6 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
45.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+17
45.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 17 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
44.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 9 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+3
44.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
44.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+4
45.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 4 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+5
44.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+7
44.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 7 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
43.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Akron 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
43.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
44.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Shawn FeatherstoneSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
44.1%
Adam Mitcheson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
44.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Deltron Sands for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 23Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-13
44.5%
Thomas Woodson sacked by Justin Brandon for a loss of 13 yards to the Akron 4 Thomas Woodson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 31
OWN 4
+1
43.3%
Manny Morgan run for 1 yd to the Akron 5Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
43.0%
Nick Gasser punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:1157% → 57%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
42.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Theo Anderson for 13 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
42.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+7
41.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
41.8%
Theo Anderson run for 14 yds to the Akron 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.8%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan George return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:0445% → 58%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
44.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 19Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
44.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for no gain to the Akron 19Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+11
43.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 11 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
45.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 15 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
46.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 9 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
47.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+5
47.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
57.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 41 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FG
19 plays · 53 yds · 4:3946% → 45%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
54.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 13 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
53.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
52.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+9
52.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 9 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
52.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 6 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
52.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 7 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
51.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 3 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
50.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+15
52.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 15 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
50.7%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Brian Reinke for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 19Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
55.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 15
OPP 19
-10
57.6%
JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to HOLSEY, Kamathi for 19 yards to the AKRON0, clock 00:58, PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the AKRON29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 25
OPP 29
+10
58.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 10 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+36
54.9%
Adam Mitcheson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
53.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
53.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+7
54.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
53.1%
K.J. Osborn run for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-3
51.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+3
54.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
55.0%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 18 yds, downed at the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
58.3%
Thomas Woodson run for 3 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
58.6%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 5
50
0
58.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Tra'Von ChapmanSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 5
50
0
56.1%
Nick Gasser punt for 39 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-6
55.7%
JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to JOHNSON, Anthon for 6 yards to the UB17 (DAILEY, Darian), PENALTY UB holding 6 yards to the UB5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 16
OWN 5
+3
56.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+20
56.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 20 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
55.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
54.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+5
53.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
52.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for no gain to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
53.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Andrew Gray for 7 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-2
52.3%
K.J. Osborn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
55.1%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
57.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 3 yds to the Akron 17Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
57.5%
Deltron Sands run for no gain to the Akron 17Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
56.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
55.1%
Nick Gasser punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:2347% → 75%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
53.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 7 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
52.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
52.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
52.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
52.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+5
55.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 5 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
50.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+7
50.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
51.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Akron 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
51.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 1 yd to the Akron 10Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
25.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17INT
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0034% → 40%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
33.5%
Thomas Woodson run for 10 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
36.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+19
34.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 19 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
38.3%
Deltron Sands run for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
40.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Deltron Sands for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
37.8%
Manny Morgan run for 3 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
40.1%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. Coney, broken up by Ryan WilliamsonSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
39.9%
Thomas Woodson pass intercepted Tim Roberts return for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0073% → 75%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
27.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+9
27.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 9 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
27.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+3
26.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+10
26.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 10 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
25.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
26.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Darius CopelandSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+9
27.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 9 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
25.4%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 51 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 2:5125% → 68%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+32
25.1%
Deltron Sands run for 32 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
30.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 11 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
32.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
32.5%
Deltron Sands run for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
31.7%
Manny Morgan run for 3 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
68.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kevin Gladney for 36 yds for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 2:5142% → 42%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
58.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+2
58.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+6
58.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
54.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Emmanuel Reed for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+12
53.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 12 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
51.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 10 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
49.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
48.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
52.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
57.7%
Adam Mitcheson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:3169% → 80%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
69.4%
Deltron Sands run for 16 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
77.2%
Deltron Sands run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 5
50
+6
80.7%
Deltron Sands run for 6 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
81.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-6
80.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:46
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kevin Gladney for 36 yds for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
+36.4
TD · Q4 14:25
Emmanuel Reed run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-26.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com