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TOL

Toledo 58 at Ball State 17

BALL
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2017 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:28 · TEAM punt , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 10 yds to the BalSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior−44.4Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:11: Malik Dunner run for 41 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +1.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:58: Terry Swanson run for 71 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +2.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:20: Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 35 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +2.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:21: Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 67 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +5.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:57: Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 88 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED) — TOL win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 12 of 16TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:28BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51TOL 4th & 14 at BALL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:45BALL 4th & 10 at TOL 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:19TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 11, up 3
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 13 at BALL 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53BALL 4th & 6 at TOL 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:58BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:20BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:21TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:16BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00BALL 4th & 13 at TOL 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:10BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:13BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 33, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:13BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 24, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:07BALL 4th & 7 at TOL 37, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:55BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 47, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:12BALL 4th & 4 at TOL 4, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:25BALL 4th & 7 at TOL 49, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:46TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 47, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:14BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 29, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:27TOL 4th & 4 at BALL 21, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:55BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 46, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 3:11BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:58TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:20TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:21TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:57TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:35TOL Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:55TOL Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:12BALL Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:25TOL Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.4%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
5.4%
Danzel McKinley-Lewis run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
5.4%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+2
5.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
5.4%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
5.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 57 yds, downed at the BalSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
6.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-1
6.1%
Zack Blair pass complete to Riley Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 9Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+6
6.1%
Zack Blair run for 6 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 3
OWN 15
+10
6.1%
TEAM punt , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 10 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2793% → 93%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
6.6%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the BalSt 11Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-4
6.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Toled Terry SwansonSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 14
OPP 15
0
6.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 14
OPP 15
+32
7.2%
Jameson Vest 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
7.2%
Zack Blair pass complete to Nolan Givan for 5 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
7.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+4
7.1%
Zack Blair pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
7.2%
Zack Blair run for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+21
7.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Nate Childress) to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
7.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
7.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
7.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
7.1%
Morgan Hagee punt for 47 yds, downed at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
8.5%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 1
OWN 11
0
8.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
8.6%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
8.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Riley Miller at the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
2 plays · 49 yds · 0:379% → 11%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
9.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Malik Dunner for 8 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+41
10.8%
Malik Dunner run for 41 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:0590% → 87%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+23
10.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 23 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
10.2%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+9
11.0%
Logan Woodside run for 9 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
10.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Reggie Gilliam, broken up by Romero WadeSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-10
10.9%
THOMPKINS, Art rush for 9 yards to the BALL37, out-of-bounds (WADE, Romero), PENALTY TOL holding (HARRIS, Bryce) 10 yards to the TOL44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+5
11.3%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+2
11.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
12.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
12.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+22
12.5%
Justin Hall run for 22 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
13.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
13.1%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
13.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 0
0
12.0%
SNYDER, Nathan punt 34 yards to the TOL14, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BALL kick catching interference off-setting, PENALTY TOL face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
12.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:0685% → 88%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
14.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
14.9%
Terry Swanson run for 11 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
14.7%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+71
12.3%
Terry Swanson run for 71 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
12.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
12.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
12.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:4288% → 90%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
12.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
12.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Shakif SeymourSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
9.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 35 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
10.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
9.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
9.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
9.9%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
9.9%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
10.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Jacob WhiteSimilar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
10.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 44 yds, downed at the BalSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
10.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+6
10.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
10.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Neru N'ShakaSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
10.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 23 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
10.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
10.8%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-9
10.7%
Drew Plitt sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 9 yards to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
10.1%
Nathan Snyder punt for 40 yds, downed at the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4689% → 94%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
11.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete, broken up by Christian AlbrightSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
11.5%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+67
5.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 67 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16FG
10 plays · 0 yds · 1:218% → 8%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+23
7.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 8 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Willie Ross Jr.) to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
8.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Nolan Givan, broken up by Kahlil RobinsonSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+24
8.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 9 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, roughing passer (Olasunkanmi Adeniyi) to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
8.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin Hall, broken up by Zach QuinnSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
8.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-3
8.2%
Drew Plitt sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+43
8.3%
Morgan Hagee 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:449% → 9%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
9.0%
Drew Plitt sacked by Zach Quinn for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
8.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
9.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+15
8.9%
Morgan Hagee punt for 50 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 15 yds to the BALLST 42 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Jack Linch) to the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
4.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 88 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:376% → 2%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
5.5%
HUNTLEY, Caleb rush for 8 yards to the BALL38 (BLUE, Dedarallo;OLEKANMA, R.), PENALTY BALL holding (GIVAN, Nolan) 10 yards to the BALL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+5
5.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
5.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+8
5.3%
Drew Plitt run for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+87
2.1%
Nathan Snyder punt for 54 yds , Diontae Johnson returns for 87 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
2.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
2.0%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
2.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
2.0%
Morgan Hagee punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:1698% → 99%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
50
-5
1.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Drew Rosi) to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+37
1.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 37 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.6%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the BalSt 18Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+17
1.7%
Terry Swanson run for 17 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
1.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tyrone Chambers) to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
1.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 8 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
1.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
0.7%
Malik Dunner run for 12 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
0.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
0.7%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
0.7%
Malik Dunner run for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
0.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
1 play · 63 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
0.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 63 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
0.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Markice Hurt for 10 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
0.3%
Markice Hurt run for 3 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 7
OWN 47
-4
0.2%
Morgan Hagee punt for 42 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 7 Danzel McKinley-Lewis fumbled, recovered by BalSt Marc WaltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q3 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Kyle SchrankSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.2%
Drew Plitt run for no gain to the Toled 4Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+73
0.4%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 73 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.3%
Brad Smith run for no gain to the BalSt 2Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.3%
Michael Julian run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
0.1%
Justin Hall run for 18 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Nolan Givan, broken up by Tycen AndersonSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
0.2%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+4
0.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
0.2%
Morgan Hagee punt for 41 yds, downed at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
0.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 14 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
0.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+16
0.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 16 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 11 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+3
0.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-5
0.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 43 yds, downed at the BalSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
0.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-1
0.1%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+5
0.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 5 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Nolan GivanSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Markice HurtSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 9 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-2
0.1%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
0.1%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
0.1%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 4 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+1
0.1%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+2
0.1%
Nevone McCrimmon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 31DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
0.1%
Markice Hurt run for 1 yd to the BalSt 20Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
0.0%
Markice Hurt run for no gain to the BalSt 20Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+19
0.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Devin Reece for 19 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
0.1%
Markice Hurt run for 6 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
0.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Devin Reece, broken up by Tycen AndersonSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
0.0%
Markice Hurt run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
0.0%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
0.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
0.1%
Brad Smith run for 6 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:21
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 67 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q3 12:57
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 88 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED)
-4
TD · Q2 10:58
Terry Swanson run for 71 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com