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EMU

Eastern Michigan 27 at Northern Illinois 30

NIU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2017 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:32 · Matt Ference punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 82Pregame prior+9.7Home team on offense−5.2Garbage-time factor−2.0Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:37: B. Roback pass,to S. Bailey II for 68 yds for a TD, (P. Fricano KICK), (P. Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +7.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:39: EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the EMich 20 — EMU win probability +10.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:57: M. Childers run for 10 yds for a TD, (C. Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +36.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for no gain to the NoIll 17 — EMU win probability +28.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the EMich 9 — NIU win probability +44.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13EMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:11EMU 4th & 11 at EMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:19NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:56EMU 4th & 9 at NIU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:34NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00EMU 4th & 10 at NIU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:37NIU 4th & 19 at NIU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:19EMU 4th & 11 at EMU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:39NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:32NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−2.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:26EMU 4th & 5 at NIU 33, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:34NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:14NIU 4th & 8 at EMU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−11.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:17EMU 4th & 12 at NIU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−2.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−9.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:49EMU 4th & 7 at NIU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−10.3
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:42NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:46EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−1.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  19. Q3 3:45NIU 4th & 4 at EMU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−2.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−3.3
    average punt
  20. Q3 1:19EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 15:00NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  22. Q4 13:31NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 11:56EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  24. Q4 7:25EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  25. Q4 5:26NIU 4th & 21 at NIU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−2.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  26. Q4 3:12EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  27. Q4 0:00EMU 4th & 3 at NIU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−13.6
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−26.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:52NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:37EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:57NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 12 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+4
66.9%
Jake Julien punt for 33 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 4 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
66.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 5 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
66.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
66.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
66.8%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-3
66.8%
Spencer Tears run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+1
66.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tommy Mister for 1 yd to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
66.6%
Matt Ference punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
66.5%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-4
66.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 21Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+27
66.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 27 yds to the EMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.1%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
66.2%
Blake Banham run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 47Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
66.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Blake BanhamSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
66.6%
Jake Julien punt for 50 yds, downed at the NoIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
66.0%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+3
65.9%
Tommy Mister run for 3 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
65.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+18
65.6%
Matt Ference punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 45 , Blake Banham returns for 18 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.0%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
65.0%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-2
65.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 44 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
65.8%
Ivan Oraha punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
65.6%
CHILDERS, Marcu pass complete to WIMANN, Shane for 7 yards to the NIU20 (HOYING, Brody), PENALTY NIU personal foul 7 yards to the NIU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 17
OWN 6
+3
65.6%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+13
65.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 13 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
65.4%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
65.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
65.7%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
65.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+3
65.1%
Matt Ference punt for 49 yds , Blake Banham returns for 3 yds to the EMich 29 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, clipping (14 Yards) to the EMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:0135% → 36%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
65.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 12Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+9
65.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 9 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+9
65.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dan Buschman for 9 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
65.0%
Blake Banham run for 7 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
64.5%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
64.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
63.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 11 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
62.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 13 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
62.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
62.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine Porter, broken up by Jawuan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
63.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
64.4%
Paul Fricano punt for 26 yds, downed at the NoIll 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 91 yds · 0:5865% → 71%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
64.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Chad Beebe for 7 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+15
65.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 15 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
70.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 69 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
71.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
63.4%
B. Roback pass,to S. Bailey II for 68 yds for a TD, (P. Fricano KICK), (P. Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
65.5%
Marcus Childers sacked by Ike Spearman for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 26 Marcus Childers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Marcus Childers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 19
OWN 27
0
63.6%
Matt Ference punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 26Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
64.7%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 20
OWN 26
-5
64.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Christian Blake) to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 25
OWN 21
+6
64.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tommy Mister for 6 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:3937% → 36%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
63.0%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
63.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+18
64.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 18 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Isaac HolderSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
62.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dan Buschman for 6 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-7
61.7%
Brogan Roback sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 44Similar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
64.1%
Jake Julien punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT TD
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:4365% → 63%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
65.2%
Tommy Mister run for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
65.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 6 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
65.6%
CHILDERS, Marcu pass complete to BEEBE, Chad for 5 yards to the NIU35 (PHELPS, Jalen), PENALTY NIU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NIU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
65.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-5
65.0%
CHILDERS, Marcu rush for 11 yards to the NIU36 (MOODY, Justin), PENALTY NIU illegal procedure 5 yards to the NIU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+1
65.0%
D.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 19
OWN 21
+6
64.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 6 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
63.1%
Jaron Johnson 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Paul Fricano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
52.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the EMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
53.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
52.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
51.6%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
51.3%
Matt Ference punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1050% → 54%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
49.6%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
49.5%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
49.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dan Buschman for 4 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
49.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
44.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
44.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to John NiupalauSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+50
46.0%
Paul Fricano 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5251% → 51%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
50.9%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
50.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
50.2%
Marcus Childers run for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
50.6%
Matt Ference punt for 53 yds, downed at the EMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
47.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the EMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:3648% → 47%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
48.3%
Tommy Mister run for 7 yds to the NoIll 35 Tommy Mister fumbled, forced by Brody Hoying, recovered by NoIll Tommy MisterSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+10
49.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 10 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
50.2%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the EMich 48 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Maxx Crosby) to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
51.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 9 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+5
52.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 5 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
52.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Chad Beebe for 13 yds to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
52.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
52.9%
Tommy Mister run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 12Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
50.8%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the EMich 8Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
46.8%
Christian Hagan 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:4957% → 58%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
43.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 4 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
42.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+3
42.8%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BANHAM, Blake, PENALTY NIU pass interference (JOHNSON, Jawuan) 3 yards to the EMU41, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
42.0%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+40
42.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 40 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
40.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
40.7%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-6
41.4%
Brogan Roback sacked by Jawuan Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 19 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+36
42.2%
Paul Fricano 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM TEAM return for no gain to the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
44.5%
Marcus Jones run for 10 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
45.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 14 yds Christian Blake fumbled, forced by Kyle Rachwal, recovered by EMich Brody HoyingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:5362% → 61%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
37.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 7 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-5
37.8%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Mathew Sexton) to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+25
37.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 25 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
37.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
37.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Bryce KempSimilar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
38.1%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
38.7%
Paul Fricano 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
43.7%
Marcus Childers run for 12 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
45.8%
Marcus Jones run for 6 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
47.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
46.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
44.5%
Matt Ference punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
38.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to John NiupalauSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
39.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 5 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
39.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
41.1%
Jake Julien punt for 42 yds, downed at the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
44.0%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
44.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian Blake NORTHERNIL Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+13
41.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 43 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Brogan Roback) to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
46.0%
CHILDERS, Marcu rush for 7 yards to the EMU35 (WILLIAMS, Ross), PENALTY NIU holding (WIMANN, Shane) 10 yards to the NIU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 20
OWN 48
-1
43.1%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 21
OWN 47
+14
42.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 14 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+3
45.6%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
43.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. Brown, broken up by Oddie Granger IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
33.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
34.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Mathew Sexton, broken up by Sutton SmithSimilar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
35.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 6 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+51
34.9%
Jake Julien punt for 44 yds, downed at the NORTHERNIL 14 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen Embry) to the NoIll 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:1136% → 33%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
35.8%
Jauan Wesley run for 1 yd to the NoIll 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
35.6%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the NoIll 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+1
34.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 1 yd to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
33.4%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds , Blake Banham returns for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
26.6%
I. Holder pass,to B. Kemp for 45 yds for a TD, (P. Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Jalen PhelpsSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
34.6%
Marcus Childers run for 17 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
37.9%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
37.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
37.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
35.2%
Matt Ference punt for 38 yds, downed at the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
29.9%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the EMich 19Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
29.8%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-4
29.9%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
32.1%
Jake Julien punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 30TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:0131% → 34%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+50
31.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 50 yds to the EMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
38.8%
Marcus Childers run for 8 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
38.8%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the EMich 16Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+6
36.3%
Marcus Jones run for 6 yds to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
38.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
38.8%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the EMich 5Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
33.8%
M. Childers pass,to S. Wimann for 5 yds for a TD, (C. Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
22.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 7 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-5
22.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Jimmy Leatiota) to the EMich 23Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
23.0%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+3
24.8%
Jake Julien punt for 40 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 3 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
24.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Shane Wimann for 11 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
26.4%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
25.6%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-11
23.4%
Marcus Childers sacked by Luke Maclean and Jeremiah Harris for a loss of 11 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 21
OWN 38
0
20.9%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 33PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5885% → 87%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
15.3%
Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
15.3%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+1
13.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 22Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+11
13.3%
Jake Julien punt blocked by Mitchell Brinkman blocked by Mitchell Brinkman Jauan Wesley return for 11 yds to the EMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 34TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:1029% → 65%
Q4 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
28.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
64.7%
M. Childers run for 10 yds for a TD, (C. Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 35MISSED FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 2:5051% → 57%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
48.7%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
48.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+15
48.1%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BAILEY, Sergio, PENALTY NIU pass interference (SMALLS, Albert) 15 yards to the EMU43, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
43.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+21
43.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 21 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
39.7%
Blake Banham run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
39.0%
Blake Banham run for no gain to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+5
40.3%
Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
43.3%
Paul Fricano 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 36FG
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0060% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
40.5%
Ian Eriksen run for 8 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
40.5%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the NoIll 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
12.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for no gain to the NoIll 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 37TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
41.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 12 yds to the EMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
85.8%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the EMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the EMich 9
+44.5
TD · Q4 2:57
M. Childers run for 10 yds for a TD, (C. Hagan KICK)
+36.2
FG · OT 0:00
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for no gain to the NoIll 17
-28.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com